Context Matters – Country-Specific Politico-Economic Analyses, Conflict and Crisis Potentials, as well as Global and Regional Trends / Phase II


  • The realisation of the Sustainable Development Goals needs to be based on comprehensive knowledge of the specific contexts at various levels from the global to the local level. The three components of Context Matters provide annual information on actors and governance structures as well as on conflict potentials in the partner countries of German development cooperation. Important regional and global trends (trend analysis) for development cooperation are analysed with a comparative area perspective complementing these country analyses.
    BMZ, 2019-2023



    Infographic | 09/2023

    How to deal with Non-state Armed Actors

    Dealing with NSAAs is complicated and complex shifting between repression and dialogue. NSAAs are highly flexibkle and able to adapt to changing local and global contexts. Policies must be comprehensive and include local communities as well as structural drivers of violence.

    Yannick Deepen

    Former GIGA Team member

    Research Questions

    · What country specific politico-economic trends impact the success of development cooperation? What actors promoting or inhibiting reforms can be identified?

    · What potential do conflicts have to escalate violently? What peacebuilding strategies can be supported by external actors?

    · What are important political, social, and economic regional trends influence development cooperation in the Global South?

    Contribution to International Research

    International development cooperation can only achieve the self-imposed goals and those of the sustainable development agenda (Agenda 2030, SDGs) if the possible effects of regional and global trends are recognized and incorporated at an early stage and the different measures are based on a solid knowledge of the country-specific developments based on the characteristics of the political system (including development orientation, legitimacy, social reform and blockade forces) as well as the existing conflict, crisis and escalation potential.

    Research Design and Methods

    During the project cycle the project analyses historical, socio-economic, ecological, cultural developments in up to 100 partner countries of German development cooperation using a comparative frame. It also evaluates the potential for conflict escalation in around 90 countries in the Global South.

    The identification of regional and global development trends feed into the updating of the comparative frames and provide academic input for strategic development tools.

    Preliminary Findings

    Seven trend analysis have been published, most of them in form of a GIGA Focus, a GIGA Working Paper and an Infographic (see related content).


    GIGA Focus Latin America | 1/2024

    Guatemala: A Vote for Turning the Tide

    In Guatemala, President Bernardo Arévalo took office on 15 January 2024, raising hopes of democratic reform. Still, an entrenched elite has continuously distorted the independence of the judiciary. Not only are elections highly contested; democracy itself is on the line. Can Guatemala turn the tide?

    GIGA Working Papers | 11/2023

    Coping with Complexity: Dealing with Non-State Armed Actors

    Non-state armed actors come in a variety of shapes including warlord-led groups. In war or lower-level armed conflict, and violence-prone contexts, these groups pose severe problems to peacebuilding, democratic governance, and sustainable development. This trend analysis maps cross-regional developments.

    Yannick Deepen

    Former GIGA Team member

    Infographic | 09/2023

    How to deal with Non-state Armed Actors

    Dealing with NSAAs is complicated and complex shifting between repression and dialogue. NSAAs are highly flexibkle and able to adapt to changing local and global contexts. Policies must be comprehensive and include local communities as well as structural drivers of violence.

    Yannick Deepen

    Former GIGA Team member

    Video | 07/2023

    COVID-19 and Violent Actors in the Global South: An Inter- and Cross-Regional Comparison

    This trend analysis examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and non-state violent actors in the Global South. We provide an ACLED-based interregional mapping of trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.

    Gewaltakteure im Schatten der Pandemie (Lateinamerika, Naher Osten, Subsahara Afrika)

    Seminar | 14/10/2021 - 17/01/2022

    Gewaltakteure im Schatten der Pandemie (Lateinamerika, Naher Osten, Subsahara Afrika)

    Vorlesungsreihe zur Friedensbildung, ZFW Uni Hamburg, Hamburg Organisers: Universität Hamburg Dr. Julia Grauvogel (Speaker), Yannick Deepen (Speaker)

    Yannick Deepen

    Former GIGA Team member

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