COVID-19 and Violent Actors in the Global South: An Inter- and Cross-Regional Comparison

In the spring of 2020, observers and practitioners warned that COVID-19 would increase violence in sub-Saharan Africa through an economic shock that would lead to distributional conflict and state repression – and violence did indeed increase in 2020. An analysis by Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau and Mora Deitch.

What effect has the COVID-19 pandemic had on different armed actors across the Global South? This comparative analysis of regional trends and different armed actors provides evidence for regional specificities and an overall brief decline in violence before a return to pre-pandemic levels.

A cross-regional comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on violence shows high levels of variation between contexts and in terms of specific armed actors. While Latin America along with the Middle East and North Africa have experienced an overall reduction, violence in sub-Saharan Africa has increased.

The MECAM Policy Talk 2025 brought together experts on and from the Maghreb as well as on and from Sub-Saharan Africa in Berlin for 2.5 days of intense deliberations. The blog article summarizes the main findings and presents central policy implications.

In the spring of 2020, observers and practitioners warned that COVID-19 would increase violence in sub-Saharan Africa through an economic shock that would lead to distributional conflict and state repression – and violence did indeed increase in 2020. An analysis by Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau and Mora Deitch.

What effect has the COVID-19 pandemic had on different armed actors across the Global South? This comparative analysis of regional trends and different armed actors provides evidence for regional specificities and an overall brief decline in violence before a return to pre-pandemic levels.

A cross-regional comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on violence shows high levels of variation between contexts and in terms of specific armed actors. While Latin America along with the Middle East and North Africa have experienced an overall reduction, violence in sub-Saharan Africa has increased.