GIGA Focus

Ahead of a Lula–Trump meeting, Brazil is pushing the US to scrap its punitive 50 per cent tariffs. Balancing autonomy and dependence, Lula is rallying state and business interests and pushing an EU–Mercosur deal, seeking to gain leverage through multilateralism and transcend the false US–China dichotomy.

China’s Global Security Initiative projects its stability-focused security model abroad. How do East Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East perceive the GSI? What does this mean for the future of the international security order? And how should Germany and the EU best respond?

Religion is crucial to understanding the violent clashes occurring between nomadic pastoralists and sedentary farmers over land and water in Nigeria. Neglecting this dimension prevents a holistic understanding of the crisis taking hold, hindering the development of effective and lasting solutions.

Social media is often blamed for a recent trend of protest failure. We look into the youth-led iterations occurring from Asia to Africa to Latin America in recent years, their ultimate outcomes, and how social media has served to inspire and connect protest movements across countries and continents.

In 2026, trade negotiations with the US and EU will need to be balanced by India with the demands of its BRICS presidency amid a shifting global order. Complex ties with China and the US, state elections, and tensions with the South Asian country’s diverse neighbours will test the ruling government.

Trump’s ultra-aggressive claim to South America as the United States’ exclusive zone of influence changes the region’s political coordinates. The GIGA analyses the ongoing stand-off in Venezuela, the role of China, Latin America’s upcoming elections, and other key events and trends to watch in 2026.

Africa enters 2026 at a crossroads: entrenched autocrats clash with Gen Z protests, debt crises threaten major economies, Western retreat meets Chinese and Russian expansion. Yet African states will seek to leverage critical minerals and strategic partnerships to assert agency amid global rivalries.

Europe plays a limited role in Gulf investments and the geopolitical considerations behind them. International mediation is urgently required in Gaza and Sudan. Lebanon and Syria are threatened by fragmentation. We present ten things set to inform events in the Middle East and North Africa in 2026.

The US military buildup along Venezuela’s coast has raised expectations that Maduro’s regime will collapse under pressure. However, this would probably not result in a democratic transition. Even if Maduro is forced to step down, a change of guard within the regime remains the more likely scenario.