New Alliances in the Horn of Africa: Navigating Global and Regional Competition

The Horn of Africa has become a focal point of geopolitical competition, marked by shifting alignments and intensifying rivalries. Regional dynamics are being reshaped by Ethiopia’s quest for access to the Red Sea, Turkey’s expanding role in Somalia, and Egypt’s growing security partnerships, while the war in Sudan escalates with external involvement. At the same time, the increasing presence of regional and global powers – from the United Arab Emirates to China, Russia, and the United States – is adding to an already complex landscape. How do these rivalries and realignments affect prospects for peace and stability in the Horn and Red Sea region? And how should we interpret the European Union’s ambition to connect governance, peacebuilding, and regional security in such a contested environment? A high-level panel of experts explored these questions.

Key takeaways from the event

The Horn of Africa and Red Sea region remain highly volatile, as shifting alignments and intensifying geopolitical competition intersect with ongoing internal conflicts. This dynamic environment continues to draw the attention and involvement of both regional and extra-regional actors. Against this backdrop, a panel of high-level experts examined evolving alignments, external involvement, and conflict dynamics and discussed their implications for the region’s future. The discussion yielded several key insights.

1) Flexible alignments rather than formal alliances

Political and security partnerships in the Horn of Africa are shaped more by ad hoc and pragmatic alignments than long-term, institutionalised alliances. As such, states may back opposing sides in one conflict while maintaining good bilateral relations.

2) Internal dynamics remain central

While external involvement and the spread of advanced military technologies, such as drones, significantly influence conflict dynamics in Sudan, internal drivers remain decisive.

3) External actors are not monolithic

External powers should not be treated as homogeneous entities; they carry internal contradictions and divergent interests across different factions, institutions, and interest groups.

4) Engagement with external actors is reciprocal

External involvement, including that of Gulf countries and Turkey, is often analysed through the lens of outside interests. Yet, regional governments and local actors also actively seek out and leverage these relationships to pursue their own political, economic, and security goals.

5) The Horn and Red Sea region form an interconnected strategic space

Political, economic, and security dynamics in the Horn of Africa are deeply linked to developments across the Red Sea, forming a single strategic arena shaped by evolving geopolitical competition. Expanding engagement by Egypt, Gulf states, Turkey, and other MENA actors seeking to protect trade routes, secure key waterways, or counter regional competitors is reshaping the region. For instance, maritime insecurity now carries immediate economic and political repercussions for both African and Middle Eastern states.

6) External involvement accelerates militarisation, while internal fragilities also heighten regional risks

Across the region, domestic instability interacts with expanding foreign military footprints along the Red Sea, producing overlapping spheres of influence and increasing the likelihood of escalation.

7) Economic incentives and past successes offer valuable guidance

Economic incentives can serve as effective tools for mediation. As one of the least economically integrated regions, the Horn of Africa stands to gain considerably from stronger regional economic cooperation. Past diplomatic successes offer practical lessons for future mediation efforts. In a context involving multiple stakeholders, there is value in enhancing the visibility of ongoing international support for mediation processes.

8) Regional organisations must adapt and coordinate to regain agency

The AU, IGAD, and the Red Sea Council each offer distinct strengths, but fragmented mandates and overlapping and competing external initiatives limit their impact. Strengthened coordination among these bodies is essential for managing competition, supporting conflict resolution, and shaping a coherent regional security architecture.

The event was held in English and under Chatham House rules.

Speakers:  Luca Miehe, Chef de Cabinet to the EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa.

Dr. Gerrit Kurtz is a researcher in the Africa and Middle East research division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). His research focuses on conflict management, peacebuilding, and diplomacy in the Horn of Africa.  

Dr. Mona Saleh is a research associate at the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies. Her research focuses on regional organisations in Africa and the Middle East and the role of international actors in peace and security. 

Lidet Tadesse is a peace and security analyst and practitioner. Her areas of focus include geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, African multilateral approaches to peace and security, Africa’s partnerships with the EU, China, and Gulf states and Africa’s role in global governance.  Moderator: Mira Demirdirek is a research fellow at the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies. Her research focuses on Turkey’s foreign policy, particularly towards the African continent.