One Year After: Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Increased Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa?
Matthias Basedau / Mora Deitch
One Year After: Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Increased Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa?
GIGA Working Papers | 2021
Abstract
In spring 2020, observers and practitioners warned that COVID-19 would increase violence in sub-Saharan Africa by creating an economic shock that would lead to distributional conflicts and government repression. Compared to before the pandemic, violence did increase in 2020, rising by 40 and 60 per cent in terms of fatalities and events, respectively. Controlling for important confounders, COVID-19 proves significant to the increase in violence in many models; however, a robust effect can be found only for “COVID-19 unrest,” which forms a fraction of the violence and stems from the stringency of government reactions rather than the pandemic itself. Pre-pandemic fragility accounts best for the region’s rise in violence. Expert assessments confirm these findings but also yield evidence warning against prematurely announcing an all-clear. The fallout of the pandemic on conflict is likely to have a longer period of incubation, and there are initial indications that conditions will worsen.
Covid-19 and Governance in Africa: Familiar Problems Amplified?
Africa after Covid-19: Lessons and Outlook for Development Cooperation with Africa, Cadenabbia
Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau (Speaker)
Comment at Cadenabbia, Italy, 2nd Annual Gathering of European Think Tanks and Academic Institutions with a Focus on Africa, organized by Konrad Adenauer Foundation
The authors of this GIGA Focus analyse the current COVID-19 situation in Latin America and the challenges facing the countries.
Texto completo disponible en español.
With the pandemic, the risk of violence against women and children, especially within the home, increased further as people sheltered at home at the same time that they faced great financial and emotional stress. The authors of this GIGA Focus assess government efforts to address and treat gender-based violence.
This trend analysis examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and non-state violent actors in the Global South. We provide an ACLED-based interregional mapping of trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
A cross-regional comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on violence shows high levels of variation between contexts and in terms of specific armed actors. While Latin America along with the Middle East and North Africa have experienced an overall reduction, violence in sub-Saharan Africa has increased.
By the end of May 2022, the mandate for the German military mission in Mali will expire. The decision on an extension should be made against the backdrop of two trends in Africa: the spread of jihadist violence and the growing influence of non-Western external powers.
South Africa finds itself in a severe crisis that has serious implications for its neighbours. The regional hegemon has largely been unable to engage in regional crises in a meaningful way. As a result, we see a worrying downward trend in Southern Africa, traditionally a haven of stability.
Two years into the pandemic, there are signs that sub-Saharan Africa will experience a modest recovery in 2022. However, inadequate vaccine supply, violent conflicts and structural weaknesses remain challenges for the region. We present an analysis of "ten things to watch" in Africa.
Director of the GIGA Institute for African Affairs / Editor GIGA Focus Africa
Conference | 09/08/2021 - 12/08/2021
Covid-19 and Governance in Africa: Familiar Problems Amplified?
Africa after Covid-19: Lessons and Outlook for Development Cooperation with Africa, Cadenabbia
Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau (Speaker)
Comment at Cadenabbia, Italy, 2nd Annual Gathering of European Think Tanks and Academic Institutions with a Focus on Africa, organized by Konrad Adenauer Foundation
The authors of this GIGA Focus analyse the current COVID-19 situation in Latin America and the challenges facing the countries.
Texto completo disponible en español.
With the pandemic, the risk of violence against women and children, especially within the home, increased further as people sheltered at home at the same time that they faced great financial and emotional stress. The authors of this GIGA Focus assess government efforts to address and treat gender-based violence.
This trend analysis examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and non-state violent actors in the Global South. We provide an ACLED-based interregional mapping of trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
A cross-regional comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on violence shows high levels of variation between contexts and in terms of specific armed actors. While Latin America along with the Middle East and North Africa have experienced an overall reduction, violence in sub-Saharan Africa has increased.
By the end of May 2022, the mandate for the German military mission in Mali will expire. The decision on an extension should be made against the backdrop of two trends in Africa: the spread of jihadist violence and the growing influence of non-Western external powers.
South Africa finds itself in a severe crisis that has serious implications for its neighbours. The regional hegemon has largely been unable to engage in regional crises in a meaningful way. As a result, we see a worrying downward trend in Southern Africa, traditionally a haven of stability.
Two years into the pandemic, there are signs that sub-Saharan Africa will experience a modest recovery in 2022. However, inadequate vaccine supply, violent conflicts and structural weaknesses remain challenges for the region. We present an analysis of "ten things to watch" in Africa.
Director of the GIGA Institute for African Affairs / Editor GIGA Focus Africa
Conference | 09/08/2021 - 12/08/2021
Covid-19 and Governance in Africa: Familiar Problems Amplified?
Africa after Covid-19: Lessons and Outlook for Development Cooperation with Africa, Cadenabbia
Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau (Speaker)
Comment at Cadenabbia, Italy, 2nd Annual Gathering of European Think Tanks and Academic Institutions with a Focus on Africa, organized by Konrad Adenauer Foundation
The authors of this GIGA Focus analyse the current COVID-19 situation in Latin America and the challenges facing the countries.
Texto completo disponible en español.
With the pandemic, the risk of violence against women and children, especially within the home, increased further as people sheltered at home at the same time that they faced great financial and emotional stress. The authors of this GIGA Focus assess government efforts to address and treat gender-based violence.
