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GIGA Focus Global
Number 5 | 2022 | ISSN: 1862-3581
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October 2022 not only cemented the domestic political control of party-state leader Xi Jinping at the beginning of his third term in power – potentially on his way to a lifelong position – but also sent a clear message that, under his leadership, the People’s Republic will play a considerably more active role in global affairs.
To understand the implications for China’s foreign and security policies, the ideological messages sent during the 20th Party Congress should not be regarded as empty rhetoric but be taken seriously for their practical relevance. The canon of “Xi Jinping Thought” has evolved into a comprehensive Weltanschauung with a global reach.
A subtle but far-reaching message can be found in Xi Jinping’s repeated calls to seize the “historical initiative.” This formula reveals a growing desire not to remain the passive object of Western containment strategies but to play a proactive role shaping power in global affairs.
The aspiration to seize the strategic initiative has been promoted specifically with regard to Taiwan. Perceptions of grave external threats suggest that China’s leadership is preparing itself for escalating military conflicts in the region – a scenario not necessarily implying that China itself is heading for a war.
At the same time, the Party Congress documents include multiple offers to collaborate in the field of global governance, including the Global Security Initiative launched in April 2022. As China finds itself excluded from a growing number of multilateral formats, however, these offers are made with increasing reservations.
For European decision-makers, the ever more urgent question is whether China’s desire to have more say and influence in shaping global affairs is to be accommodated or not, given the country’s growing geopolitical weight and its unmistakable ambitions. The answer to this question will inform not only the future of multilateralism but also the escalatory dynamic of a looming military conflict in which China and the United States are heading towards each other, spellbound by mirror images of hostility.
Holbig, Heike (2022), Driving the Wheels of History: The World after China’s 20th Party Congress, GIGA Focus Global, 5, Hamburg: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), https://doi.org/10.57671/gfgl-22051
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The German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) – Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien in Hamburg publishes the Focus series on Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and global issues. The GIGA Focus is edited and published by the GIGA. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institute. Authors alone are responsible for the content of their articles. GIGA and the authors cannot be held liable for any errors and omissions, or for any consequences arising from the use of the information provided.
