Conflict Economies and Multi-Alignment: Structural Drivers of War and Peacebuilding Failure in Yemen

This study seeks to investigate the structural drivers of Yemen’s protracted conflict and the repeated failure of peacebuilding initiatives. By synthesising the political economy of conflict, rentier-state theory, hybrid governance, and strategic multi-alignment, the paper develops the concept of a polycentric rentier-conflict economy. Empirical evidence from 2011 to 2025 demonstrates how fuel imports, customs taxation, humanitarian aid diversion, and monetary bifurcation have transformed Yemen’s war into a self-sustaining system of rule. Comparative analysis with Sudan, Libya, and Iran’s proxy networks underscores Yemen’s distinctiveness: unlike more centralised rentier structures, Yemen’s conflict economy is decentralised, commercially embedded, and sustained by business–militia alliances with external patrons. These findings extend rentier theory to account for subnational rent capture and illuminate why conventional peacebuilding focused on ceasefires, elite bargains, and technocratic reforms has repeatedly failed. Policy recommendations emphasise revenue consolidation, transparency in aid flows, and inclusive governance mechanisms to dismantle war-sustaining networks and foster diplomatic sustainable peace.

Speaker:  Dr. Najeeb Alomaisi is a Non-Resident Fellow at the MESA Global Academy and External Researcher at the Institute of Public Economics Law in Ludwigsburg.

Moderator:  Dr. Jens Heibach is a Research Fellow at the GIGA.