Resilient to Violence?: One plus Four Hypotheses on the Effect of Democracy on Domestic Conflict
Matthias Basedau
Resilient to Violence?: One plus Four Hypotheses on the Effect of Democracy on Domestic Conflict
Democratization | 2026
Abstract
Democracy can be conceptualized as resilient to domestic conflict, offering peaceful mechanisms for political change. However, the conventional view on internal democratic peace holds that democracy does little to reduce intrastate conflict. Fifty years after the start of the Third Wave of democratization, this systematic literature review revisits the debate by both theorizing the relationship and assessing empirical evidence, specifically from the past decade. The article proposes four explanations for why a strong independent effect may not emerge: the influence of third variables, non-linear and complex dynamics, and variation in both types of democracy and conflict. Analysing 66 cross-national large-N studies, the findings support a modest pacifying effect: durable liberal democracies tend to be peaceful, while hybrid regimes are more prone to conflict. The relationship, however, is conditioned by third variables and types of democracy and conflict. The review demonstrates substantial progress in the debate and identifies five key avenues for future research: addressing empirical gaps; advancing theory on democratic resilience and its mechanisms; developing research designs that capture complexity and causality; enhancing data and measurement; and bridging a fragmented subfield. Overall, the article offers a more optimistic, though nuanced, view of democracy's potential for mitigating internal conflict.
Employing quantitative analyses, we examine counts of Muslim foreign fighters from non-Muslim majority countries in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2015. We find that greater numbers of foreign fighters come from countries where Muslim minorities are politically organized, excluded from policymaking processes, and engaged in peaceful mobilization than countries where these conditions are otherwise absent.
While the study of interreligious conflict is a growing field of research, interreligious peace lacks conceptualisation and empirical investigation. This article proposes a concept of interreligious peace that distinguishes between positive and negative elements as well as attitudinal and behavioural aspects.
The success of interreligious peace hinges on the concept of peace. By adopting an expanded concept of peace, we can apply it to interreligious relations. Our approach defines four elements of interreligious peace from the dimensions of negative and positive peace, as well as behavior and attitude.
Militärputsche in Afrika nehmen zu. Warum? GIGA-Experte Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau erklärt gegenüber dem Spiegel: Auslöser sind politische Krisen und ein stark politisiertes Militär. Außerdem: Wenn ein Putsch in einem Land gelingt, steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Nachahmung anderswo.
Despite progress in some countries and issue areas, increasing pressure on governments is set to continue in 2025. Democratic prospects are mixed; security challenges persist. Regional integration stands at a crossroads as German and EU Africa policy navigates competition with China and others.
The recent diversification of external actors present in Africa has served to increase the agency of its governments but may also bolster poor governance and fuel conflict in the long run. Western powers must clarify their priorities regarding goals and partners, as well as examine own biases here.
Ideology may directly provide motive and indirectly capacity for collective violence, thus making armed conflicts longer and bloodier. The authors investigate these propositions by drawing on an innovative global dataset which codes ideological claims by rebel groups and governments in intrastate armed conflicts since 1946.
Recent military coups underscore that democratisation is under pressure in Africa. While long-term trends paint a positive picture, current threats to democratisation beyond the coups include socio-economic challenges, violent conflict, power-hungry elites, and external support for autocrats.
Military coups in Africa are on the rise again. The trend is being driven by acute political crises, traditionally politicized militaries and self-reinforcing regional dynamics. German and European policy should address the root causes, and the West should avoid short-sighted geopolitics and revise its Africa policy.
Employing quantitative analyses, we examine counts of Muslim foreign fighters from non-Muslim majority countries in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2015. We find that greater numbers of foreign fighters come from countries where Muslim minorities are politically organized, excluded from policymaking processes, and engaged in peaceful mobilization than countries where these conditions are otherwise absent.
While the study of interreligious conflict is a growing field of research, interreligious peace lacks conceptualisation and empirical investigation. This article proposes a concept of interreligious peace that distinguishes between positive and negative elements as well as attitudinal and behavioural aspects.
The success of interreligious peace hinges on the concept of peace. By adopting an expanded concept of peace, we can apply it to interreligious relations. Our approach defines four elements of interreligious peace from the dimensions of negative and positive peace, as well as behavior and attitude.
Militärputsche in Afrika nehmen zu. Warum? GIGA-Experte Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau erklärt gegenüber dem Spiegel: Auslöser sind politische Krisen und ein stark politisiertes Militär. Außerdem: Wenn ein Putsch in einem Land gelingt, steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Nachahmung anderswo.
Despite progress in some countries and issue areas, increasing pressure on governments is set to continue in 2025. Democratic prospects are mixed; security challenges persist. Regional integration stands at a crossroads as German and EU Africa policy navigates competition with China and others.
The recent diversification of external actors present in Africa has served to increase the agency of its governments but may also bolster poor governance and fuel conflict in the long run. Western powers must clarify their priorities regarding goals and partners, as well as examine own biases here.
Ideology may directly provide motive and indirectly capacity for collective violence, thus making armed conflicts longer and bloodier. The authors investigate these propositions by drawing on an innovative global dataset which codes ideological claims by rebel groups and governments in intrastate armed conflicts since 1946.
Recent military coups underscore that democratisation is under pressure in Africa. While long-term trends paint a positive picture, current threats to democratisation beyond the coups include socio-economic challenges, violent conflict, power-hungry elites, and external support for autocrats.
Military coups in Africa are on the rise again. The trend is being driven by acute political crises, traditionally politicized militaries and self-reinforcing regional dynamics. German and European policy should address the root causes, and the West should avoid short-sighted geopolitics and revise its Africa policy.
Employing quantitative analyses, we examine counts of Muslim foreign fighters from non-Muslim majority countries in Iraq and Syria from 2011 to 2015. We find that greater numbers of foreign fighters come from countries where Muslim minorities are politically organized, excluded from policymaking processes, and engaged in peaceful mobilization than countries where these conditions are otherwise absent.
While the study of interreligious conflict is a growing field of research, interreligious peace lacks conceptualisation and empirical investigation. This article proposes a concept of interreligious peace that distinguishes between positive and negative elements as well as attitudinal and behavioural aspects.
The success of interreligious peace hinges on the concept of peace. By adopting an expanded concept of peace, we can apply it to interreligious relations. Our approach defines four elements of interreligious peace from the dimensions of negative and positive peace, as well as behavior and attitude.
