War in Iran: GIGA Experts on Its Background, Goals, and Consequences

The official reasons the United States gave for the attack on Iran remain contradictory: It was asserted the strikes were carried out due to the continued threat posed by the Iranian nuclear programme (despite the Twelve-Day War, during which US President Donald Trump claimed the programme had been destroyed). Then the US pivoted to claiming that regime change and liberating the Iranian people was the goal, in the aftermath of the brutal suppression of protests at the beginning of the year (see GIGA Insights “Mass Protests in Iran: GIGA Researchers Provide Context” for GIGA expert assessments on that). The war is classified by leading experts as being in breach of international law.

GIGA Expert Assessments

GIGA Middle East experts are closely observing the events and, in well-known media outlets, helping explain the background, goals, and geopolitical and economic ramifications of the war.

In a panel discussion with Markus Lanz, Diba Mirzaei explains why a regime change is unlikely in the middle of a war, how stable the regime remains, and what the status of organised opposition is. In her comprehensive discussion with Tilo Jung in the Jung & Naiv podcast, she talks about the historical background of the conflict between Iran on one side, and Israel and the United States on the other. Mirzaei also provides the Tagesschau and Deutschlandfunk her assessments of how power relations might unfold under Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

In an interview with the GIGA, Hamid Talebian explains why the once-promising nuclear talks prior to the war failed.

Houssein Al Malla analyses the entry into the war of non-state actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as their attacks on Israel.

In interviews with international media outlets, Prof. Dr. Eckart Woertz, Director of the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies, elaborates specifically on the far-reaching economic consequences of the war: how the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – through which a large proportion of the global oil trade travels – is proceeding and how it could not only lead to a global oil crisis but also – as in the Gulf states, which are highly dependent on food imports – cause supply bottlenecks. Additionally, Woertz analyses the reactions of European actors, who must weigh economic interests against security policy dependencies and diplomatic constraints.

GIGA experts continue to observe the developments closely and to integrate them into research and discussions in media.