The Situation in Israel and Iran: The Essentials in Brief

24 June 2025

The mutual shelling of targets in Israel and Iran that began on 13 June 2025 with Israel’s war of aggression, inimical to international law, marked an escalation of the conflict between the two countries in the wake of Iranian air strikes on Israel in 2024, which also flouted international law. Despite the ceasefire announced by the United States today, the situation remains tense and volatile. Much will depend on whether both sides hold to the ceasefire, how the situation within Iran develops, and what the future holds for the Iranian regime. Regime change via a military putsch by the Revolutionary Guard, state collapse, or a civil war are all possible scenarios under discussion. At this point, European states are present only as spectators in their attempts to probe diplomatic solutions.

Closely observing the current developments, GIGA scholars Prof. Dr. Eckart Woertz, Diba Mirzaei, and Dr. André Bank shed light on the backdrop:

How would you describe the current situation between Israel and Iran? And what consequences will the US intervention have?

The Iranian regime has a bad hand to play. Entering into negotiations to curtail its nuclear programme would be judged by allies and adversaries alike as a sign of weakness and capitulation. Before the recent ceasefire, there was fear of escalation in the form of attacks on US bases in the region or on sites of oil production in Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, but this has not come to pass. That would have led to more attacks on Iran and put the Iranian regime in peril. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” strategy, in which influence in the region is exerted via proxies, is in tatters in the wake of Israel’s military triumphs against the Lebanese Hezbollah and the toppling of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. The Iranian regime is unlikely to be toppled during war-time conditions and in the face of aerial attacks alone. It is possible that Iranians will circle the wagons, a so-called “rally-around-the-flag” effect. This, however, will hold only temporarily. The chasm between the people and the regime – and the mistrust that goes with it – is too vast for the Iranian people to view the regime as a legitimate custodian in the long term. Once the fighting is over and the regime returns to its aggressive approach towards supposed dissidents, the ongoing economic and political problems will continue to loom: in the medium term, the regime may be faced with critical questions and see new protest dynamics forming.

What historical and political factors led to the nuclear conflict with Iran?

After having had good relations with Israel during the Shah’s reign, Iran has taken an antagonistic stance towards Israel since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, supporting groups openly hostile to Israel, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Starting in the early 2000s, the United States and Europe began to fear that Iran sought to develop nuclear weapons. This initially led to international sanctions and negotiations that concluded in 2015 with the signing of the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement was unilaterally terminated in 2018 by Donald Trump in his first term, which led to Iran ramping up its uranium enrichment dramatically in the years following.

What effects is the current conflict between Israel and Iran having on stability and security in the region as a whole?

If Iran had reacted to Israel’s and the United States’ latest escalations with escalations of its own, for instance by attacking US bases and oil facilities in the Gulf, or by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter of sea-based oil shipments flows, the effect would have been further upheaval in the region and in global markets. But Iran itself exports its oil via the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to utilising the Strait to import essential goods such as foodstuffs – the regime would have done damage to itself by blocking the Strait. Such extreme scenarios have been warded off by the ceasefire, but the situation remains volatile.

How are other countries and actors in the region influencing the conflict? Can a firestorm be prevented?

The Middle East is already engulfed in a regional firestorm, as the current Israel–Iran war is taking place against the backdrop of the ongoing war on Gaza and heavy violence in the West Bank. The timing of Israel’s surprise attack on Iran on 13 June could be read as an attempt to distract the world from the catastrophic humanitarian situation faced by civilians in the Gaza Strip and the resulting international criticism of the Benjamin Netanyahu government, which has increased somewhat since February 2025.

Beyond the Israel–Palestine dimension, there has been a massive exchange of fire between Israel and Yemeni Houthi rebels. Israel has also resumed its bombardment of Lebanon. Finally, Israel is also maintaining its illegal occupation of both the UN buffer zone east of the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, which it took from Syria in the context of the fall of the dictator Assad on 8 December 2024. During the most recent fighting, Syria’s southern neighbour Jordan shot down Iranian drones and rockets with the help of its defence system, developed by the United States. Fortunately, only few injuries were recorded.

Overall, the influence of Arab countries on the current regional dynamic is notably constrained in the face of the near total military dominance of Israel and the by and large uncritical support for Tel Aviv on the part of the US and EU.

What realistic approaches do you see to solving the conflict between Israel and Iran?

A lot depends on the United States. There is no real way around taking the JCPOA approach. Iran would have to credibly restrict its nuclear programme to preclude military uses; in return, it would have its sanctions eased. Much will also depend on what camp comes out on top within Iran. If a faction comes to power that was already critical of negotiations, believing them to weaken Iran, there is a danger that in the medium term, Iran will acquire nuclear weapons and exit the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), akin to North Korea in 2003.

Do you foresee repercussions for the Gaza conflict?

The Gaza war has been pushed to the margins of the media due to the recent war between Israel and Iran. Israel’s starvation warfare tactics have led to a catastrophic humanitarian situation that has potential to worsen. Netanyahu and particularly the rightwing extremists in his party, such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, have openly called for the expulsion of Palestinians and the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip. The credibility of German and European foreign policy will suffer greatly in the Global South if Europe does not firmly reject these plans, not to mention if it colludes with them.