The US Blockade of Oil Shipments to Cuba: GIGA Expert Bert Hoffmann Warns of Humanitarian Crisis

Update from 20 March 2026

In mid-March, the power went out all over Cuba, further intensifying the circumstances. What does the situation look like for the country’s people right now?

Bert Hoffmann: The supply situation is getting more drastic every day. Oil and diesel are ever scarcer. Power cuts are incapacitating public life; businesses are at a standstill. Without diesel for the trucks, food can’t be brought from the rural areas to the cities. Drinking water is becoming scarce where the pumps aren’t working. People can’t get to the hospitals. It’s started to go beyond a certain pain threshold. The United States is attempting to force a political shift via the people’s suffering.

There were reports about humanitarian aid from the United States, and Russia said it wanted to send oil. What humanitarian support has Cuba received in the past several weeks, and from whom?

Bert Hoffmann: The “aid” from the United States is cynical rhetoric. The United States is purposely causing this crisis to try to bring the Cuban government to its knees. Mexico and other states, as well as non-governmental organisations, have contributed humanitarian aid. But without oil shipments there will be no end in sight to this crisis, and the United States continues to hinder those shipments. Russia did announce that it would send a tanker, but no such tanker has arrived. The oil blockade has been going on for two and a half months now. Regardless of what country or political system – even Switzerland would be forced into a state of emergency after two and a half months without oil.

Donald Trump has once again sparked indignation with his latest statement about wanting to “take” Cuba. How should we understand such statements, and what can we expect from the US government?

Bert Hoffmann: Trump’s swaggering rhetoric knows no bounds: “I can do anything I want with Cuba!” He’s made it clear that, rather than seeking a “deal” acceptable to both sides, he wants a submissive government. Aside from economic interests, it’s ultimately also about eroding Cuba as a symbol – meaning, what it has represented since Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution. The United States wants political hegemony over all of Latin America, and for that to happen, Cuba must be “put in its place.”

Protests are occurring in Cuba in the face of the shortages and the economic crisis. How stable is the country’s government, and how is it reacting to the people’s dissatisfaction?

Bert Hoffmann: In contrast to Venezuela, the Cuban government appears to be a united front. It’s begun talks with the United States, released prisoners, and made promises regarding big investment opportunities on the island for overseas Cubans and US companies. The Cuban population, however, is being left out of these negotiations. There have been protests here and there, and they will likely continue. But mostly right now the people are playing a waiting game, anticipating what the US and Cuban governments will do to resolve the current situation. In Venezuela, the United States completely ignored the opposition and negotiated only with the existing state and security apparatus. In Cuba we’ve seen more of the same. As such, the people are suffering terrible deprivation while being relegated to the political sidelines. There is enormous uncertainty about the future.

16 February 2026

How drastic is the crisis in Cuba? How is it affecting everyday life? Bert Hoffmann: Everything is affected. Cuba is entering a state of emergency. There are power cuts every day for hours on end. Charcoal is being sold on the streets because many people have no more gas to cook with. The worst bottleneck is in petrol and diesel, as the island is 100 per cent dependent on imports for fuel and the United States is blocking all fuel shipments into the country. Oil reserves will soon run dry. And without diesel for the trucks, no more food can be brought from the countryside to the urban areas, and hospitals won’t receive oxygen deliveries. People will die. How did it come to such dramatic scarcity? Bert Hoffmann: Cuba imported 70 per cent of its oil from Venezuela. The United States has blocked every shipment to Cuba since the US military action against the Venezuelan president Maduro on 3 January. The United States has subsequently put so much pressure on Mexico that it was forced to cancel oil shipments to Cuba that were already planned. Trump has also started threatening any country that ships oil to Cuba with punitive tariffs. Trump, Rubio, and co. are even publicly celebrating having found the pressure point to bring socialist Cuba to its knees 67 years after Fidel Castro’s revolution. Might Russia enter the fray as an ideological ally? Bert Hoffmann: Theoretically, it could. In practice, though, it seems unlikely that Russia would enter into open conflict with the United States over Cuba. Moscow denounced the US blockade and said it would ship oil to Cuba. So far, it’s remained pure rhetoric – there are no plans to ship any oil. On the contrary, due to Cuba’s airports lacking kerosine to fuel their planes, Russia is in the process of suspending flights to Cuba and bringing Russian tourists back home. How might the situation further escalate if Cuba continues to receive no oil shipments? Bert Hoffmann: If trucking routes collapse, even aid packages won’t be able to be transported from the harbours to the cities. If that happens, there will be a humanitarian catastrophe the likes of which we can’t imagine. What’s the United States’ goal with this policy of strangulation? Bert Hoffmann: Since Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution, Cuba has been a symbol – not just for the global left, but also for the right. The Trump administration wants to see this symbol destroyed, but at the same time it doesn’t want an uncontrolled collapse and seeks to avoid pushing thousands of refugees across the ocean towards the United States, as happened in 1994. The United States is interested in stability as much as political change in Havana. What options are available to the Cuban government in this situation? Bert Hoffmann: One thing they can do is try to absorb the shocks of the crisis. The government has announced austerity measures, closed businesses, cancelled events, and suspended bus routes in order to preserve the small amount of fuel it has for the most important priorities. But these are just short-term emergency measures, not solutions. There’s no way around it: oil shipments to the island must resume. If that doesn’t happen very soon, the government will have its back to the wall and will have to start negotiating with the United States. The only leverage that Cuba has in this situation is that only the existing structures (the state administration and the military and security forces) can guarantee stability, meaning the United States is also dependent on those structures. Nevertheless, the United States has got quite the leverage itself in the form of the oil blockade. The Cuban government will likely have to make concessions that would have seemed completely unacceptable six weeks ago, before the US military strike on Venezuela. What can Germany do? Bert Hoffmann: The United States will not look for a third-party mediator in this conflict. But what Germany can do is provide humanitarian help, which would also send a political signal. The United States will not only weaponise the aid it offers to put more pressure on the government in Havana but also make aid conditional upon control over allocation. Germany should follow Mexico in providing humanitarian aid without such political instrumentalisation – simply for the reason that this is what the current emergency faced by the Cuban people demands.