US Intervention in Venezuela

Venezuela has been one of the most violent countries without a formal war. Nevertheless, the debate on the multiple crises, focuses on the political regime and not the underlying conflicts. Venezuela provides evidence that a peacebuilding perspective on multiple crises outside of war is fruitful and helps us to understand the main dynamics.

The consequences of the US administration’s military intervention in Venezuela to capture former president Nicolás Maduro, and Trump’s pledge to “run” the country indefinitely via interim president Delcy Rodríguez while the US secures the country’s oil resources, are reverberating regionally and globally. This roundtable brings together GIGA experts on Latin America, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East to discuss these events, their drivers, as well as their worldwide implications.

China and Venezuela’s long-standing alliance faces its toughest test yet after Maduro’s arrest. From oil-for-loans deals to digital surveillance and military cooperation, Beijing now risks losing influence as Washington moves to assert dominance over Caracas.

The US military buildup along Venezuela’s coast has raised expectations that Maduro’s regime will collapse under pressure. However, this would probably not result in a democratic transition. Even if Maduro is forced to step down, a change of guard within the regime remains the more likely scenario.

Trump’s disruptive policies could inadvertently provide the impetus to bring Europe and Latin America closer together. With smart policies, the incoming German government can leverage shared interests for a renewed partnership.

On 28 July 2024 the people of Venezuela were called to elect a new president. The elections took place amid controversy, with the National Election Council declaring President Nicolás Maduro the winner without evidence. Despite far-reaching protests, Maduro was inaugurated as the new president in January 2025. Our experts delve into the elections’ credibility, the opposition’s counterefforts, and international reactions.

The unification of the opposition under María Corina Machado is an unprecedented political challenge for the regime of Nicolás Maduro. To eliminate candidates and splinter the opposition, the regime weaponises the judiciary and persecutes political enemies, making free and fair elections unlikely.

As Venezuela grapples with a legitimacy crisis following the 28 July elections, tensions rise. The country is at a crossroads, with coordinated international pressure and strategic dialogue urgently needed to support democratic forces and help navigate the complex path towards a peaceful transition.

Venezuela is an unusual context for a study on peace and peacebuilding. The book provides an analysis with a “conflict and peace” lens besides the fact that its high levels of violence are not an open war or armed conflict.

Venezuela has been one of the most violent countries without a formal war. Nevertheless, the debate on the multiple crises, focuses on the political regime and not the underlying conflicts. Venezuela provides evidence that a peacebuilding perspective on multiple crises outside of war is fruitful and helps us to understand the main dynamics.