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Hierzu gehören Kenia, das Anfang der 1990er Jahre von Sanktionen betroffen war, und Liberia, das nach dem Sturz von Präsident Charles Taylor im August 2003 und mit der Schaffung größerer politischer Freiheiten durch eine Übergangsregierung im Jahr 2005 zu „teilweise frei“ aufsteigen konnte.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Eine große Gruppe afrikanischer Staaten schwankt zwischen „teilweise frei“ und „nicht frei“. Dazu gehören die Zentralafrikanische Republik, die im Jahr 2004 von „teilweise frei“ auf „nicht frei“ zurückfiel, 2006 wieder zu „teilweise frei“ aufstieg, aber seit 2014 wegen schwerer Unruhen wieder als „nicht frei“ geführt wird. Côte d’Ivoire, Niger und Mauretanien zeigen über die Jahre ähnliche Schwankungen. Für andere Staaten ist ein klarer Abwärtstrend erkennbar. Äthiopien wurde 2010 auf „nicht frei“ zurückgestuft, ohne wieder demokratischer zu werden. Guinea-Bissau und Uganda, beide Anfang der 1990er Jahre von Sanktionen betroffen, wurden über 20 Jahre als „teilweise frei“ geführt, fielen aber während der letzten Jahre auf „nicht frei“ zurück. Schließlich finden sich Staaten mit externen Interventionen, die konstant durch Freedom House als „nicht frei“ eingestuft werden; dies sind Tschad, die Demokratische Republik Kongo, Äquatorial Guinea und Sudan.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Dieser Überblick verdeutlicht den generell nur eingeschränkten Beitrag, den externe Interventionen bei der Schaffung stabiler liberaler Demokratien leisten können. Er zeigt jedoch auch, dass westliche Unterstützung eine wichtige Rolle im Übergang von autoritären Regimen zu offeneren, stärker regelgebundenen (aber oft defekten) Mehrparteiensystemen spielen kann. Demokratische Sanktionen haben grundsätzlich einen leicht positiven Effekt auf den Schutz von politischen Rechten und Bürgerrechten in den betroffenen Staaten (von Soest und Wahman 2015).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die schwierige Suche nach einem afrikanischen Demokratiemodell","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die hohe Popularität demokratischer Regierungsformen auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent schließt Kritik an der konkreten Ausgestaltung von Demokratie nicht aus. Einige bekannte afrikanische Vordenker und Politiker sehen die Betonung individueller Rechte und die Forderung nach pluralistischen Wahlen als Ausdruck fremder Einflüsse, die im Widerspruch zu traditionellen Werten stünden, wie gemeinschaftlichen Rechten und Konsens-Entscheidungen. Der erste Präsident Tansanias, Julius Nyerere (1975), betonte, sein ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Ujamaa","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"-Sozialismus – mit den vier Grundsätzen Gegenseitige Achtung, Gleichheit, Gemeineigentum und Demokratie (","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Ujamaa","nodeType":"text"},{"value":" bedeutet Dorfgemeinschaft) – passe in Verbindung mit einem Einparteienstaat besser zu den Traditionen und Strukturen afrikanischer Gesellschaften als die liberale Demokratie. Auch wenn heute in Afrika nicht mehr über die politischen Vorzüge der Einparteienherrschaft diskutiert wird, bleibt eine gewisse Skepsis gegenüber liberal-demokratischen Ansätzen. Richard Youngs (2015: 49) bemerkt, dass die „wichtige Rolle religiöser, ethnischer und gemeinschaftlicher Beziehungen nicht wirklich zur westlichen Betonung individueller Rechte passt“. Es ist umstritten, ob importierte Modelle liberaler Demokratie für die multi-ethnischen Gesellschaften und die Entwicklung des Kontinents angemessen sind. Ake (1996) etwa lehnt das westliche Demokratiemodell als nicht „emanzipatorisch“ ab, da es nicht in der Lage sei, die Rechte der afrikanischen Bürger gegenüber der politischen Elite zu schützen und der wirtschaftlichen Marginalisierung entgegenzuwirken.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Für Viele bleibt die liberale Demokratie zudem eng mit der Verbreitung des viel kritisierten neoliberalen Wirtschaftsmodells nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges verknüpft. Auch deshalb hinterfragen afrikanische Eliten heute zunehmend die Überlegenheit von Demokratien bei der Bewältigung von wirtschaftlichen und politischen Krisen. Das wachsende Selbstbewusstsein und die globale Bedeutung autoritärer Regime gefährdet ebenfalls die Attraktivität liberaler Demokratien (Plattner 2015).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In vielen afrikanischen Gesellschaften werden gemeinschaftliche Werte und konsensuale Entscheidungsfindung stärker geschätzt als in anderen Gesellschaften. Traditionelle Autoritäten sind zudem oft auf lokaler Ebene in Entscheidungsprozesse eingebunden – zum Beispiel in Botswana durch das ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Kgotla","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"-System (Molomo 2014; ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Kgotla","nodeType":"text"},{"value":" bedeutet öffentliche Versammlung). Der gemeinsame Nenner ist jeweils die Erhaltung lokaler Besonderheiten und Machtteilung, vor allem auf unteren Regierungsebenen. Trotz dieser Suche nach spezifisch afrikanischen Demokratievarianten belegen die Afrobarometer-Umfragen jedoch die Unterstützung universeller Menschenrechte und fundamentaler demokratischer Grundsätze auf dem Kontinent.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Aufgrund der großen politischen und sozialen Unterschiede zwischen und sogar innerhalb einzelner Staaten ist die Entwicklung eines genuin afrikanischen Demokratiemodells schwierig, wenn nicht gar unmöglich. Wie Gyimah-Boadi (2015) und Khadiagala (2016) feststellen, weisen die politischen Traditionen in Afrika sowohl demokratische als auch autoritäre Züge auf. Bemerkenswert ist auch, dass die aktuell bekanntesten Befürworter eines „afrikanischen Demokratiemodells“, wie Ugandas Präsident Museveni und Ruandas Präsident Kagame, den Begriff benutzen, um die Rechte der Opposition und die Pressefreiheit einzuschränken und ihre eigene Herrschaft zu legitimieren.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["15o3JZJIT6Nna8ciiQ2PNP",{"sys":{"id":"15o3JZJIT6Nna8ciiQ2PNP","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2019_02_2","title":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2019_02_2","altText":"Grafische Darstellung langfristiger Entwicklung der Form von Machtwechseln.","copyright":" ISPI 2019.","caption":"Abb. 2\nLangfristige Entwicklung der Form von Machtwechseln seit dem Jahr 1960\nLegende: grün (oben an den Säulen) bedeutet durch Wahlen; gelb (Mitte) friedlich, aber nicht durch Wahlen; rot (unten) gewaltsam/irregulär.","media":{"sys":{"id":"5cBt82ktwiZvH12cIqa8HC","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2019_02_2","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/5cBt82ktwiZvH12cIqa8HC/90190a0cc98b97206bedeadc9738a731/Abb2-Focus-Afrika-2019-02-web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["16jn8Zb8lMrsmpEABVOU9J",{"sys":{"id":"16jn8Zb8lMrsmpEABVOU9J","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Focus Afrika 2018_05 (Header)","title":"Bild Focus Afrika 2018_05 (Header)","altText":"Pressekonferenz vor dem Verfassungsgericht und dem Obersten Gerichtshof in Harare, Simbabwe.","copyright":"Reuters / Philimon Bulawayo","media":{"sys":{"id":"hvwWkgYH1DfapvGy8yHtc","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Afrika 2018_05 (Header)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/hvwWkgYH1DfapvGy8yHtc/8a06eb55a21bdd2009bc26b46c8f736c/GIGA_Zimbabwe_Aug2018_Chamisa-Court-Harare_Reuters_PhilimonBulawayo.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2625,"height":1500}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["175ijyC9cSnUtDccJO6ch5",{"sys":{"id":"175ijyC9cSnUtDccJO6ch5","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"columnContent"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Redaktion GIGA Focus Global (bis 2022)","headline":"Redaktion GIGA Focus Global","showHeadlineLeft":true,"backgroundColour":"White","columnCount":3,"topics":[{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"Entry","id":"3747dd76-4cf0-47c2-9649-38a1566fd9dd"}}]}}],["17odsulvfLx1F65zNOB49d",{"sys":{"id":"17odsulvfLx1F65zNOB49d","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus LA 2021_04_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Impeachment: A Solution, But Not for All Problems\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Public disaffection with politics has recently reached new heights in Latin America. With the end of the commodity boom, economic hardship became the norm, triggering a wave of discontent and protests in 2019. Corruption scandals fed the trend, particularly since the scandal involving the construction company Odebrecht burst in Brazil and spread across the region, with negative repercussions against political and business elites. On top of that, the COVID-19 pandemic deepened economic privations and nurtured increasing public discontent and anti-political moods through exposés of corruption in contracts, privileges in vaccination processes, collapsed health systems, and a halted education for millions of youths and children. \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The goals and targets of popular discontent in the region are often diffuse, disorganised, and vary from country to country, but an underlying motivation is a general dissatisfaction with the political system, politicians, and their performance. However, in presidential systems such as those that prevail across the region, the chief executive and the party in government often end up on centre stage and their dismissal through impeachment is conceived as a concrete measure to bring a country out of crisis. In recent years we have seen impeachment attempts – both unsuccessful, such as in Chile (December 2019), Paraguay (March 2021) and Peru (December 2017 and September 2020), and successful in Peru (November 2020), as well as two presidential resignations in Peru, the first connected to troublesome president-congress relations (March 2018), the second to popular protests (November 2020). \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"However, impeachments do not fit as a solution to all problems, and even if they could theoretically fit to many, in practice they often do not operate as the constitution dictates. Impeachments are constitutional provisions that act as in-between-election accountability mechanisms against presidential misconduct. Importantly, they are decided by congressional majorities, which entails the risk that they may turn to be “[…] regulated more by the comparative strength of parties than by the real demonstrations of innocence or guilt,” as Alexander Hamilton, one of the Founding Fathers of the United States Constitution, wrote more than 200 years ago (Hamilton 1788). \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"There are three problems with presidential impeachment that have become visible in the last few years in Latin America. They can be summarised as follows.\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"First, the fact that presidents are judged by Congress makes it almost inevitable that impeachment processes became part of the tug of war of contending political forces. Although not entirely unavoidable, an impeachment loses legitimacy as a tool of accountability when politics, rather than arresting illegal behaviour, become the sole motivation for removing the president. \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Second, an impeachment is a mechanism for removing one person from office; namely, the chief executive. If the problem to be solved is linked to that person alone, for example due to personal corrupt behaviour, an impeachment may do the trick. However, when the issue motivating an impeachment may be a general crisis of representation, dismissing the president is only a partial and inconclusive solution to a much wider and deeper problem, and may actually generate more instability down the line (Marsteintredet 2014). \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Third, due to its strict requirements of super-majorities to pass, an impeachment may offer a president too much protection and thus eliminate the deterring effects of impeachment. This may be the case in a strongly polarised polity – such as the US was with Donald Trump – or when a president enjoys a strong partisan backing that offers him/her an effective political shield (Pérez-Liñán 2007), such as in Brazil under the Temer presidency. \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Two recent country cases illustrate the limits attached to the use of this instrument in Latin America. In Peru, two presidents have been impeached in connection to factionalism and political instability rather than illegal behaviour. In Brazil, the threat of impeachment has been an ineffective tool to stop criminal behaviour from the top executive.\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The Peruvian Congress in Action – Too Much Impeachment and Too Few Solutions\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$38","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$39","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In December 2017, a congressional investigation produced testimonies linking Kuczynski to a bribery scheme with the Brazilian company Odebrecht, and Congress proceeded to accuse him of “permanent moral incapacity.” The impeachment attempt failed, however, after PPK signed a deal with Keiko’s estranged brother, Kenji Fujimori, leading to the abstention of ten deputies aligned with Kenji. The contents of the deal became evident a few days later, when the president pardoned former president Alberto Fujimori (1990–2000),"},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" provoking public outrage and denunciations from human rights organisations. However, the president could only briefly benefit from struggles between the Fujimori siblings and the ad-hoc deal he had made with Kenji. While the president further weakened in opinion polls, Congress investigations produced new revelations (but weak evidence) suggesting that the deal that the president had made with Kenji Fujimori was based on bribery. These revelations sealed PPK’s fate and led to his resignation in March 2018, a few days before a decisive second impeachment would have thrown him out. "}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"\rThe case against PPK remembers the impeachment against Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff in the sense that the evidence was weak, and if anything, evidence of corruption was stronger against several of the accusers in the legislature than against the president. Removing the president on shaky grounds demonstrated the extent to which politicians put their self-interest above that of the political regime. While the removal of PPK may have satisfied some of the protestors in the streets, it did little to address the crisis of representation that affected the country. In addition, PPK’s successor, Vice-President Martín Vizcarra, who himself had been accused of corruption in relation to the construction of an airfield, inherited the same difficult political situation – an overwhelming opposing majority in Congress and did not receive any mandate to govern.\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$3a","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Despite a referendum and a new congressional composition in the midst of the pandemic conflicts and stalemate continued. In September 2020, President Vizcarra faced the first (failed) impeachment attempt to be eventually removed by a second one with a 105–16 vote on 9 November under accusations of corruption during his time as governor in Moquegua. In turn, his successor, Manuel Merino, who was the president of the Congress and a main driver for the impeachment, was forced to resign after only a few days as president as the impeachment of the still-popular Vizcarra created a public outrage and the largest demonstrations in many years. \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In short, in the five years since 2016, Congress made several attempts and in fact impeached two presidents, a third president resigned after popular protests, and Congress was controversially dissolved and newly elected. If anything, executive-legislative conflicts such as these have deepened public distrust, which should come as no surprise since an impeachment serves to hold a person, the president, to account. Further, these Peruvian impeachments have been weak in arguing for executive misconduct, which effectively converts them into votes of no confidence. However, a vote of no confidence coming from a distrusted Congress will not be accepted as a solution to any crisis. \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The 2016–2021 presidential period ended with another close presidential election, one that was only officially concluded a month and a half after the day of the runoff. Voters were pushed to choose between two extreme candidates: left-wing candidate Pedro Castillo and right-wing Keiko Fujimori. Fujimori, who again lost by a very narrow margin, claimed that the election was illegitimate and the result of ballot rigging. Thus, following Trump’s “fraud playbook” and accompanied by the established elites in Lima, Fujimori put democracy in a grave crisis, one that resembled her father’s self-coup (“","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"autogolpe","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"”) in 1992. The prospects for President Castillo, who assumed power without previous political experience and is extremely weak in Congress, are certainly not easy, with the ghosts of recent presidential instability looming on the horizon. \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The Brazilian Congress in Action – Yet No Impeachment \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$3b","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$3c","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"It is not uncommon for Brazilian legislators and citizens to submit impeachment requests to reveal the government’s incompetence and wrongdoings (Llanos and Pérez-Liñán 2020). Before Bolsonaro, Dilma Rousseff was the president facing the highest number (a total of 68). Although most impeachment requests are destined to die in Congress, the alignment of citizen and partisan initiatives in time and frequency has been crucial for the outcome of past impeachment processes in Brazil. In the two successful impeachments of presidents Collor de Melo (1990–1992) and Rousseff (2014–2016), citizens’ requests had skyrocketed and those of legislators had followed suit.\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$3d","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Through the congressional alliance the president has been avoiding impeachment: the president of the Chamber of Deputies – a ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"centrão","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"$3e","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$3f","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Impeachments and Public Disaffection \r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Public disaffection with politics in general has been present in Latin America for a while. In 2006, Mainwaring, Bejarano, and Pizarro Leongómez analysed ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes","nodeType":"text"},{"value":", and if anything, the crisis of representation, including that of political parties, has deepened and broadened beyond the Andean cases in recent years. The ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Journal of Democracy","nodeType":"text"},{"value":" has dedicated its latest issue to the ongoing troubles of democracy in Latin America, labelling the issue: “Latin America erupts.” There are many ways in which this disaffection has expressed itself: low turn-out in elections, reduced confidence in established political parties, increased political fragmentation, outsider or extreme candidates becoming popular and winning elections. As the cases of Peru and Brazil presented in these pages show, political fragmentation and extreme candidates often come together, as these are the only ones who manage to prevail or call attention among the general discredited and the exaggerated number of political offers. Impeachment is often the other side of the coin because, against this background, clashes between president and congress are not surprising.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Over the past four decades, 24 Latin American presidents have been dismissed from office prematurely. These presidential interruptions or presidential breakdowns (Llanos and Marsteintredet 2010) refer to presidents who have failed to complete their constitutionally fixed terms, often due to serious developments in the economy, social mobilisations, and political scandals. Legislators were decisive in at least ten of these episodes, as indicated in the table below. Presidents Collor de Mello, Pérez, Cubas, Lugo, Pérez Molina, Rousseff, Kuczynski, and Vizcarra were dismissed through impeachments or resigned when impeachment was becoming imminent. Presidents Bucaram, and Gutiérrez, both in Ecuador, were dismissed through impeachment-like procedures on grounds of incapacity and abandonment of post.\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The first impeachments in the 1990s were viewed more positively than those today. Fernando Collor de Melo of Brazil, for example, was an outsider and neo-liberal populist, leading his country with a unilateral style in the midst of an economic turmoil. He ended up being investigated by Congress, isolated, and dismissed for corruption. This institutionalised process of presidential removal in Brazil contrasted with other coexisting ways of removing presidents, such as insurrections and coups (the second row in the table). The military did not play the role it had in the past in these presidential falls, but coups were a decisive part for the removal of Presidents Mahuad, Zelaya, and Morales. By comparison, impeachment was assessed as a mechanism leading to democratic consolidation and accountability (Marsteintredet and Berntzen 2008).\r","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["1856LGxelcg7yZAbTLTOxM",{"sys":{"id":"1856LGxelcg7yZAbTLTOxM","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Focus Global 2020_01 (Header)","title":"Bild Focus Global 2020_01 (Header)","altText":"Oppositionelle Abgeordnete im Parlament von Bolivien protestieren mit Plakaten mit der Aufschrift \"No Re-Re Election\".","copyright":"Reuters / David Mercado","media":{"sys":{"id":"4hyI5y5IFLO1jSXdUoOfth","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Global 2020_01 (Header)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/4hyI5y5IFLO1jSXdUoOfth/6659faff07f04d4b22e97686fbf2cc4e/Bolivia_Sep2015_oppositiion-deputies-signs_Reuters_DavidMercado.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2992,"height":2096}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["1888fed2-cd03-4f82-bf75-a6dfdbd0570d",{"sys":{"id":"1888fed2-cd03-4f82-bf75-a6dfdbd0570d","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Assessing the Political and Social Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis in Latin America","path":"/de/publikationen/giga-focus/die-politischen-und-sozialen-folgen-der-corona-krise-in-lateinamerika/","dataTeaser":{"date":"3/2020","link":"https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-67260-7","type":"GIGA Focus","tagline":["GIGA Focus Lateinamerika"],"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","personUuids":["cd32d8e9-71f9-4f40-b201-489fa4d2e76c","b904e04f-3f34-417e-bbd9-aa609c4a23b0","5c038f0f-efcf-40a3-9fb3-ddb12e3deda4"]},"dataDetail":{"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","type":"GIGA Focus","pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"subtitle":"2020 | ISSN: 1862-3573","keywords":{"structured":[],"free":[]},"managingOrganisationalUnitUuid":"a65daf31-e463-438f-9891-d1c1e8ad18e4","isForthcoming":false,"date":"04.2020","dateShort":"2020","links":[{"title":"Text (PDF-English)","url":"https://pure.giga-hamburg.de/ws/files/21526260/gf_lateinamerika_2003.pdf"}],"status":"Veröffentlicht","doi":[],"personNames":["Merike Blofield","Bert Hoffmann","Mariana Llanos"],"dateLong":"April 2020","isbns":[],"publicationLocation":"Hamburg","publisher":"German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)","seriesTitle":["GIGA Focus Lateinamerika"],"seriesVolume":[],"urnLinks":["https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-67260-7"],"unitUuids":["adb4adf2-146e-47d4-9353-0a3b3da4ac1b","b3ddc657-9933-454b-8b17-869d513f723e"],"seriesNumber":["3"],"seriesIssn":["1862-3573"],"useDynamicPdf":false,"personUuids":["cd32d8e9-71f9-4f40-b201-489fa4d2e76c","b904e04f-3f34-417e-bbd9-aa609c4a23b0","5c038f0f-efcf-40a3-9fb3-ddb12e3deda4"],"roleMaps":[{"uuids":["cd32d8e9-71f9-4f40-b201-489fa4d2e76c","b904e04f-3f34-417e-bbd9-aa609c4a23b0","5c038f0f-efcf-40a3-9fb3-ddb12e3deda4"],"role":{"key":"author","value":"Autor:in"}}],"abstractSnippet":"Die COVID-Pandemie stellt die Gesellschaften des ungleichsten Kontinents der Welt auf die Probe. Viele Menschen in Lateinamerika sind von informeller Arbeit abhängig, um ihren Lebensunterhalt zu bestreiten. Maßnahmen zur physischen Distanzierung müssen daher unmittelbar durch soziale Hilfsprogramme…"},"pageIntroMedia":[{"sys":{"id":"1MuVoVm4gUfHZtgBwoBl8l","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Focus Lateinamerika 2020_03 (Header)","title":"Bild Focus Lateinamerika 2020_03 (Header)","altText":"Menschen in El Salvador bilden Warteschlangen in der Corona-Pandemie.","copyright":"Reuters / Jose Cabezas","media":{"sys":{"id":"5ssQfx72buRsC1ExKEB69O","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Lateinamerika 2020_03 (Header)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/5ssQfx72buRsC1ExKEB69O/d277981dd3fc78dafd47c189e0c48eda/Bild_Focus_Lateinamerika_2020_03__Header_-resized.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2000,"height":1143}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],"teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"5ssQfx72buRsC1ExKEB69O","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Lateinamerika 2020_03 (Header)","file":"$36:19:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - GIGA Focus Latin America","date":"2020-04-03T00:00:00.000Z","titleOverwrite":"Die politischen und sozialen Folgen der Corona-Krise in Lateinamerika"}}],["18McfI7Gj6KVUr6cOpHMjP",{"sys":{"id":"18McfI7Gj6KVUr6cOpHMjP","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4_2","title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4_2","altText":"Grafik Regionale Verantwortung zur Verhinderung von Machtmissbrauch","copyright":"Afrobarometer (2016); Freedom House 2016","caption":"Grafik 2:\nRegionale Verantwortung zur Verhinderung von Machtmissbrauch\nAnmerkung: Antworten auf die Frage nach der regionalen Verpflichtung, Wahlfälschungen und Menschenrechtsverletzungen zu verhindern, vs. uneingeschränktem Respekt vor nationaler Souveränität (Afrobarometer, Runde 6).","media":{"sys":{"id":"4NexzLIwU30Po2tr9lDGno","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4_2","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/4NexzLIwU30Po2tr9lDGno/01bf057ba99caf707b458b91689faea0/Grafik_2_web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["1BUIGwd9SYAsqqF5Wcak0D",{"sys":{"id":"1BUIGwd9SYAsqqF5Wcak0D","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4 (Header)","title":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4 (Header)","altText":"Einheimische stehen vor einem Wahllokal während der angespannten Kommunalwahlen in Vuwani, Südafrikas","copyright":"Reuters / Siphiwe Sibeko","media":{"sys":{"id":"4MVxMdCUyPjkKZX9BlkMBS","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4 (Header)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/4MVxMdCUyPjkKZX9BlkMBS/1d7e0d75c4f29cf0f5f4a2686ad96078/GIGA_Southafrica_Aug2016_voting_Reuters_SiphiweSibeko.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":1600,"height":860}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["1DAZF8sZaOcBKxMIMIfqml",{"sys":{"id":"1DAZF8sZaOcBKxMIMIfqml","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Picture: Impeaching the President: Mapping the Political Landscape in the House of Representatives","title":"Picture: Impeaching the President: Mapping the Political Landscape in the House of Representatives","altText":"Diane Nellans aus Des Moines trug ein mit Weihnachtslichtern geschmücktes Schild während einer Protestaktion, die die Amtsenthebung von Präsident Donald Trump forderte.","copyright":"imago images / ZUMA Wire","media":{"sys":{"id":"Jx5MRFjmdRpxbHvffAhI8","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild: Impeaching the President: Mapping the Political Landscape in the House of Representatives","description":"","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/Jx5MRFjmdRpxbHvffAhI8/ecb9a5830e3a3f70e4bed6cb01ba7963/GIGA_Iowa_Dec2019_DesMoines_impeachment_Trump_imago0095795119h_ZUMAWire_Website.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["1E7meNsBCl4iCwgNj4eZmh",{"sys":{"id":"1E7meNsBCl4iCwgNj4eZmh","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_1_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Im Zentrum der Berichterstattung über den afrikanischen Kontinent im vergangenen Jahr standen die G20-Partnerschaftskonferenz und der AU-EU-Gipfel sowie afrikanische Migranten in Nordafrika. Autoritäre Herrscher wurden von Protestbewegungen herausgefordert und die ehemaligen Befreiungsbewegungen des südlichen Afrika führten interne Kämpfe. Diese Unwägbarkeiten in den politischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Entwicklungen auf dem Kontinent zeigen sich in den zentralen Ereignissen, die wir für das Jahr 2018 erwarten."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Unsere Übersicht über zentrale Entwicklungen in Afrika im Jahr 2018 ist insgesamt eher skeptisch. Dies gilt trotz der sozio-ökonomischen Fortschritte, die vielerorts in Afrika zu verzeichnen sind. Nicht alle Einschätzungen müssen Realität werden, vor allem, wenn die Regierungen und die Bevölkerung afrikanischer Staaten, aber auch die internationalen Partner, allen voran die EU, entsprechend aktiv werden. Europäische Politiker könnten bei den Neuverhandlungen europäisch-afrikanischer Handelsbeziehungen und durch die Öffnung legaler Migrationswege unter dem Dach eines Post-Cotonou-Abkommens mutige Entscheidungen treffen."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["1HZQNVu5n2J4m4zNy7uc6V",{"sys":{"id":"1HZQNVu5n2J4m4zNy7uc6V","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2018_04_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Immer mehr Regierungen in Subsahara-Afrika kontrollieren zivilgesellschaftliche Gruppen, die sich für Menschenrechte einsetzen. Damit engen sie nicht nur den Raum für zivilgesellschaftliche Aktivitäten ein, sie zerstören auch das Rückgrat der Demokratie und Entwicklungsmöglichkeiten."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-3","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Der schwindende Raum für zivilgesellschaftliche Aktivitäten macht auf unbeabsichtigte Folgen von internationalem Engagement für die Einhaltung der Menschenrechte aufmerksam. Dennoch sollten sich Europa und Deutschland nicht von den Verteidigern der Menschenrechte in Subsahara-Afrika abwenden – auch nicht im Zuge der politischen Förderungen von privatwirtschaftlichen Investitionen in afrikanischen Ländern im Rahmen des „Compact with Africa“ der führenden Wirtschaftsnationen (G20). Nur eine unabhängige und aktive Zivilgesellschaft kann die Demokratie vertiefen und eine gerechte und nachhaltige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Subsahara-Afrika und anderswo gewährleisten."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["1JKuICi1VS6oHOL4S33Uvy",{"sys":{"id":"1JKuICi1VS6oHOL4S33Uvy","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_5_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Gewaltkonflikte, Entwicklungshilfe und Demokratie in Afrika"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Bewaffnete Konflikte sind eines der größten Hindernisse für ökonomisches Wachstum und politische Legitimität in Afrika. Von 49 Gewaltkonflikten, die Forscher der Universität Uppsala im Jahr 2016 weltweit zählten, fanden 19 auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent statt – mehr als auf allen anderen Erdteilen. Gleichzeitig gab es in fast zwei Drittel der 54 afrikanischen Staaten seit dem Jahr 1989 einen oder mehrere bewaffnete Konflikte. Unmittelbare Folgen dieser Konflikte sind gespaltene Gesellschaften, eine zerstörte Infrastruktur und traumatisierte Menschen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$40"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["1O8KZYHupTY5TMeVEj2dsv",{"sys":{"id":"1O8KZYHupTY5TMeVEj2dsv","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Obwohl heute in vielen afrikanischen Staaten Wahldemokratien und „mildere“ Formen autoritärer Regime als zur Zeit des Kalten Krieges vorherrschen, hat sich der Demokratisierungsprozess in Afrika verlangsamt und in vielen Fällen sogar umgekehrt. Dies führt zu einer wachsenden Kluft zwischen Bürgern, die weitere demokratische Rechte und Freiheiten fordern, und zahlreichen Machthabern, die vor allem ihre Privilegien sichern wollen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Vor dem Hintergrund des internationalen Aufstiegs autoritärer Mächte wie China geht der Einfluss des Westens in der Welt zurück. Den westlichen Staaten kommt jedoch nach wie vor eine bedeutende Rolle bei der Unterstützung demokratischer Bestrebungen in Afrika zu. Diese Hilfe sollte sich auf die afrikanischen Bürger konzentrieren und dauerhafte Unterstützung für politische Bildung und gemeinsame Trainingsprogramme für den Nachwuchs aus Parteien und anderen gesellschaftlichen Gruppen vorsehen."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["1RIzvkNPcqphBeBoslwJdZ",{"sys":{"id":"1RIzvkNPcqphBeBoslwJdZ","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_3_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Menschen Zentralafrikas widersetzen sich autokratischen Herrschern, anhaltendem Reformunwillen, ökonomischer Stagnation und breiter Unsicherheit. Unter die zum Großteil friedlichen Protestbewegungen mischen sich zunehmend gewaltbereite Akteure. Es gilt die Lage eingehend zu verstehen, um von außen positive Anreize für Wege aus der Krise zu setzen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Politische Stagnation, schlechte Lebensumstände und viele Konfliktherde befeuern die derzeitigen Aufstände. Auf dreierlei Weise kann von außen positiv auf die Situation eingewirkt werden. Erstens sollten die internen demokratischen Institutionen wie freie Wahlen gestärkt werden. Zweitens sollte nicht nur mit der Regierung, sondern auch mit der Opposition und zivilen Gruppen zusammengearbeitet werden. Drittens müssen friedliche Kräfte gestärkt und in Reformprozesse eingebunden werden."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["1TM1AfDpSWiRYLkKXXsDXM",{"sys":{"id":"1TM1AfDpSWiRYLkKXXsDXM","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2018_04_5","title":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2018_04_5","altText":"Grafische Darstellung der Chronologie von Beschränkungen in Kenia.","copyright":"US State Department 2018; ICNL 2018; Amnesty International 2018.","caption":"Abb. 5\nChronologie von Beschränkungen in Kenia, 1992-heute","media":{"sys":{"id":"2eU02mkkzWv1iL2QBkhnAP","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2018_04_5","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/2eU02mkkzWv1iL2QBkhnAP/a6d78d1f2f2249ecb8adc95d4fe900e2/Abb-5-de-website.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["1TekxvWuESXiMu7J4BSx8f",{"sys":{"id":"1TekxvWuESXiMu7J4BSx8f","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_2","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Bedeutung und Grenzen von Machtwechseln","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Das Bild Subsahara-Afrikas war in den Jahrzehnten nach der Unabhängigkeit einerseits von lebenslangen Präsidentschaften und andererseits von häufigen Militärputschen geprägt. Mobutu im damaligen Zaire oder Bokassa in der Zentralafrikanischen Republik standen stellvertretend für Herrscher, die sich und ihr engstes Umfeld auf Kosten des Staates und der Bevölkerung bereicherten und zugleich jegliche politische Opposition brutal unterdrückten. Beide Herrscher verloren ihre Macht durch gewaltsame Umstürze, was vor 1990 den Regelfall darstellte. Im Zeitraum von 1960 bis 1989 wurden 48 Prozent der Machtwechsel in Afrika durch Putsche, Machtübernahmen durch Rebellen oder ausländische Einflussnahme bewirkt. Demgegenüber waren lediglich 5 Prozent der Machtwechsel das Resultat von Wahlen (Carbone und Pellegata 2017)."},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":""}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$41","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["1V3C2FNmU9BXdq7sDWXUhz",{"sys":{"id":"1V3C2FNmU9BXdq7sDWXUhz","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2019_02_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Überraschende Befunde für den „Krisenkontinent“","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Subsahara-Afrika, im Folgenden „Afrika“","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"value":" , gilt vielen als Problemfall unter den Weltregionen, mitunter als hoffnungsloser Fall, dem allenfalls durch nachhaltige Hilfe von außen aus der Misere geholfen werden kann. Schlagzeilen über Kriege, Krisen, Korruption, Krankheiten und andere Katastrophen bestimmten das mediale Bild (z.B. Freeches 2016). Auch die Wissenschaft beschäftigt sich bevorzugt mit problematischen Aspekten wie gewaltsamen Konflikten, sozioökonomischen Problemlagen und Demokratiedefiziten. Die deutsche Afrikapolitik war in den letzten Jahrzehnten von entwicklungspolitischen Diskursen dominiert. In den letzten Jahren kamen sicherheitspolitische Überlegungen hinzu, die besonders mit Migration nach Europa und islamistischen Bedrohungen in Verbindung stehen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Vor diesem Hintergrund scheint mindestens überraschend, dass zahlreiche sozioökonomische und politische Entwicklungen ein völlig anderes Bild zeichnen. Langfristig sind substanzielle, auch in der Forschung weitgehend wenig präsente, positive Trends festzustellen. Diese Befunde werden zunächst dargelegt und im Anschluss einer kritischen Prüfung unterzogen. Dabei werden die Befunde selbst, deren Interpretation und Handlungsimperative thematisiert. Der Beitrag endet mit einer Diskussion von Anknüpfungspunkten für Wissenschaft, Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und Afrikapolitik.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Sozioökonomische Kernindikatoren haben sich deutlich verbessert","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die erste Botschaft scheint wohl am überraschendsten: Kernindikatoren der sozioökonomischen Entwicklung in Afrika weisen langfristig in eine positive Richtung. Wirtschaftliche und soziale Entwicklung kann durch eine Vielzahl von Indikatoren gemessen werden. Die Auswahl sollte nicht selektiv sein. Daher werden grundlegende Maßzahlen wie Lebenserwartung, der Anteil von Armen, der Bildungsgrad, das Einkommen bzw. Wachstum sowie nicht zuletzt die Entwicklungschancen von Frauen betrachtet. Alle Quellen der verwendeten Daten sind in Tabelle 1 aufgeführt.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Bei Kernindikatoren der sozialen Entwicklung ergibt sich durchweg ein einheitliches Bild. Schon die absolute Zahl der durchschnittlichen Lebenserwartung ist mit 60 Jahren relativ hoch. In den letzten Jahren ist diese überdies deutlich gestiegen. Im Vergleich des Jahres 2006 zu 2016 stieg die Lebenserwartung um etwa sieben Jahre. Im Jahr 1990 betrug sie lediglich knapp 50 Jahre. Gleichzeitig war der Kampf gegen die Armut erfolgreich. Der Anteil der Bevölkerung, der unter der absoluten Armutsgrenze lebt – das sind Personen, die mit weniger als 1,90 USD pro Tag auskommen müssen – betrug im Jahr 2017 noch immer 41 Prozent. Im Jahr 1990 aber waren noch 55 Prozent aller Afrikaner von absoluter Armut betroffen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$42","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"„Harte“ wirtschaftliche Daten zeigen ebenfalls in eine positive Richtung. In den letzten Jahren haben viele afrikanische Staaten hohe Wachstumsraten aufweisen können. Die gute Performance hat zu einer Debatte über „Africa Rising“ geführt (z.B. Wadongo 2014; Taylor 2014). Zuletzt waren die durchschnittlichen Wachstumsraten immer noch relativ hoch, jedoch etwas geringer als in den Vorjahren. Teilweise war der Wachstumsboom durch hohe Rohstoffpreise getrieben. In nicht wenigen Ländern wie Äthiopien, Elfenbeinküste, Ghana, Kenia, Ruanda, Senegal und Uganda sind die Wachstumserfolge aber deutlich nachhaltiger als in den Jahrzehnten zuvor. In der „longue durée“ können wir erkennen, dass das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Afrika zugenommen hat. Es stieg von 1990 bis 2017 um mehr als das Doppelte auf mehr als 3.800 USD in Kaufkraftparitäten und bei konstanten Preisen – also unabhängig von der Inflation.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["1VZVQKEeNJc936X2C8V6Ww",{"sys":{"id":"1VZVQKEeNJc936X2C8V6Ww","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika_2020-01_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die sozioökonomischen und politischen Entwicklungen in Subsahara-Afrika sind uneinheitlich. Während Krisen und strukturelle Probleme die größte Aufmerksamkeit auf sich ziehen, erlauben andere Entwicklungen optimistischere Perspektiven: Die Beziehungen zwischen den Ländern des Kontinents sowie zu Europa und anderen Weltregionen zeigen Verbesserungen und geben Grund zur Hoffnung. Wir präsentieren eine subjektive Auswahl von zehn Entwicklungen in Afrika, die im Jahr 2020 eine wichtige Rolle spielen werden.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"nodeType":"unordered-list"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Fazit","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Durch die Mitgliedschaft im UN-Sicherheitsrat und die EU-Ratspräsidentschaft kommt auf Deutschland im Jahr 2020 eine ungewöhnlich wichtige Rolle in Afrika zu. Afrikanische und externe Akteure, wie z.B. die Europäische Union, sollten zeitig handeln, um Konfliktrisiken zu entschärfen, insbesondere im Zusammenhang mit umstrittenen Wahlen in verschiedenen Ländern und der Ausbreitung gewaltbereiter Dschihadisten. Reforminitiativen bedürfen starker aber bedachter internationaler Unterstützung, um sich gegen innenpolitische Widerstände durchsetzen zu können.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["1WOVKPsEsv5mSe83e1la0z",{"sys":{"id":"1WOVKPsEsv5mSe83e1la0z","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"columnContent"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Redaktion GIGA Focus Afrika","headline":"Redaktion GIGA Focus Afrika","showHeadlineLeft":true,"backgroundColour":"White","columnCount":3,"topics":[{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"Entry","id":"6a5605cd-d456-430b-9fe8-19714c79a8ab"}}]}}],["1c6d5a06-1618-426d-97b8-8fcba7d10a77",{"sys":{"id":"1c6d5a06-1618-426d-97b8-8fcba7d10a77","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Warum der Putsch in Niger die Schwächen der westlichen Sahelpolitik offenlegt","dataTeaser":{"blueprint":"CLIPPING","pureType":{"key":"clipping/clippingtypes/clipping/expertcomment","value":"Kommentar / Gastbeitrag"},"type":"Kommentar / Gastbeitrag","teaserText":"

Die Versäumnisse der deutschen Afrikapolitik sind groß: Berlin hat sich zu sehr auf Paris verlassen – und im Kampf gegen ungesteuerte Migration und den Vormarsch von Dschihadisten im Sahel auf zweifelhafte Partner gesetzt. Statt schneller Stabilisierung braucht es jetzt eine Langzeitstrategie. Ein Gastbeitrag.

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Um eine bessere Regierungsführung zu fördern, unterstützt die internationale Entwicklungszusammenarbeit ehrgeizige Reformpläne und propagiert idealistische Vorstellungen von demokratischer Machtausübung. Diese Maßnahmen sind jedoch meist schlecht an politischen Machtverhältnisse in schwachen und fragilen Staaten angepasst.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"nodeType":"unordered-list"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Fazit","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Gut gemeinte Reformprogramme zeigen oft deshalb nicht die gewünschten Wirkungen, weil sie versuchen, die politische Realität an idealisierten Vorstellungen von demokratischer Machtausübung auszurichten. 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Abbildung 2 zeigt, dass im Jahr 2015 die Zivilgesellschaft in Ostafrika (Burundi, Eritrea, Äthiopien, Kenia, Ruanda, Sudan und Uganda) unter mehr Beschränkungen durch Regierungen leidet als im Vergleich zum Jahr 2000. Allerdings gibt es auch positive Entwicklungen in anderen Regionen Subsahara-Afrikas. Die Beschränkungen in Westafrika sind in den letzten zehn Jahren deutlich zurückgegangen. 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Dezember 2008 fanden in Ghana die fünften Parlaments- und Präsidentschaftswahlen seit der Rückkehr zum Mehrparteiensystem 1992 statt. Dabei kam es erneut zu einem demokratischen Machtwechsel – der zweite in der Geschichte der Vierten Republik. 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Viele dieser Regime sind heute mit politischen und ökonomischen Krisensymptomen konfrontiert, die die Stabilität der gesamten Region gefährden…"},"pageIntroMedia":[{"sys":{"id":"1cXQfWk2epOa5bb4zTaSQu","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_8 (Header)","title":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_8 (Header)","altText":"Supporters of Mozambique's President Armando Guebuza's ruling FRELIMO party distribute pamphlets in Maputo, on the last day of campaigning","copyright":"Reuters / Grant Neuenburg","media":{"sys":{"id":"1ueBAMPAS2DIFsWhfRq2SC","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_8","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/1ueBAMPAS2DIFsWhfRq2SC/9ceaa848b97a137e6ac384ed93f8b357/Bild_GIGA_Focus_Afrika_2017_8-resized.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2000,"height":1143}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],"teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"1ueBAMPAS2DIFsWhfRq2SC","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_8","file":"$36:52:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - GIGA Focus Africa","date":"2017-12-01T00:00:00.000Z","titleOverwrite":"Der langsame Niedergang der Dominant-Party Regimes im Südlichen Afrika"}}],["286GtykfCBUc9cpQnllFfl",{"sys":{"id":"286GtykfCBUc9cpQnllFfl","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_3_2","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$43"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$44"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Im Tschad verbinden sich zwei Protestgründe: die Frustration über die fünfte (und manipulierte) Wiederwahl von Präsident Idriss Déby sowie der Rückgang von Subventionen für Primärgüter. In dem stark von Erdöleinnahmen abhängigen Land trat aufgrund des internationalen Ölpreisverfalls die extreme Misswirtschaft der Regierung akut zutage. Zunächst mobilisierten Oppositionsgruppen und zivilgesellschaftliche Bewegungen gegen die Wiederwahl von Präsident Déby im Jahr 2016. Im darauffolgenden Jahr, nachdem Déby wiedergewählt worden war, richteten sich Gewerkschaften mit Streiks gegen die Sparmaßnahmen der Regierung. Demonstrationen wurden von den Sicherheitskräften gewalttätig niedergeschlagen. Im Juni 2017 demonstrierten selbst Soldaten, um Gehaltsrückstände einzufordern. Beide Faktoren, Politik und Wirtschaft, könnten sich in den bevorstehenden Parlamentswahlen wechselseitig verstärken und somit hohe Spannungen erzeugen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Auch in der Republik Kongo kommen ökonomische und politische Protestgründe zusammen. Kleinere und mittlere Demonstrationen richteten sich über drei Jahre hinweg zunächst gegen die Verfassungsänderung des Jahres 2015, welche Präsident Sassou-Nguesso weitere Amtszeiten ermöglichte, dann gegen seine Wiederwahl im Jahr 2016 und schließlich gegen die manipulierten Parlamentswahlen im Jahr 2017 (Carter 2017). Auch die Republik Kongo wurde vom Ölpreisverfall hart getroffen und somit richten sich die Proteste auch gegen verschlechterte Lebensbedingungen. Insgesamt sind die Proteste jedoch von vergleichsweise geringem Ausmaß, da die Opposition keine gemeinsame Linie findet und keine klare Alternative präsentiert – sicherlich auch, weil die Regierung Spaltungen gezielt ausnutzt."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Seit die Präsidentschaftswahlen in Gabun im Jahr 2016 im Sinne von Amtsinhaber Ali Bongo Ondimba manipuliert wurden, kam es zu heftigen Protesten gegen das Wahlergebnis, welche gewalttätig niedergeschlagen wurden. Auch Gewerkschaften und öffentliche Angestellte riefen im Jahr 2017 wiederholt zu Streiks auf. Die eigentlich für das Jahr 2016 angedachten Parlamentswahlen wurden wiederholt verschoben. Möglicherweise werden sie noch dieses Jahr stattfinden und bei entsprechender Manipulation erneut Anstoß zu einer Eskalation von Protesten und Repression sein. Die Lage in Äquatorialguinea ähnelt jener in Gabun: beide Länder sind relativ klein, haben große Ressourcenvorkommen im Verhältnis zur Bevölkerungsgröße (aufgrund des jüngsten Ölpreisverfalls gingen die Einnahmen jedoch massiv zurück) und werden seit Jahrzehnten von je einer Familiendynastie regiert. In beiden Ländern versucht die Opposition vergeblich gegen die wohlhabenden, dynastischen Regime vorzugehen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Während in Gabun die Machtübergabe schon vor zehn Jahren erfolgreich vom Vater zum Sohn verlief, ernannte Präsident Teodore Obiang Nguema Mbasogo in Äquatorialguinea jüngst seinen Sohn zum Vizepräsidenten, um ebenfalls die Macht weiterzureichen. Im Jahr 2017 kam es (wieder während Wahlen) zu Protesten und Streikaufrufen. Die wichtigste Oppositionspartei wurde Anfang des Jahres 2018 aufgelöst, da sie angeblich ein Sicherheitsrisiko darstellte. Jedoch werden andere Gruppierungen die Aufstände womöglich weiterführen, bis sich ein Regimewechsel vollzieht und die enormen Ressourcen des Landes im Sinne der Bevölkerung genutzt werden."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Regionale Gemeinsamkeiten und Wechselwirkungen"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$45"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["294b6c75-0eab-4a0c-9654-c3905aa72590",{"sys":{"id":"294b6c75-0eab-4a0c-9654-c3905aa72590","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"How Do Non-Democratic Regimes Claim Legitimacy? 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Most notably, rulers claim to be the guardians of citizens’ socioeconomic well‐being. Second,…"},"pageIntroMedia":[{"sys":{"id":"RsAczYTPJfF2xOn1YkQ1q","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Grafik alte WP","title":"Bild Grafik alte WP","altText":"Cover GIGA Working Papers","copyright":"GIGA","media":{"sys":{"id":"2RmnCnJEHpabs1A4OkOLK2","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik_WP_alt_web_kontur","description":"","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/2RmnCnJEHpabs1A4OkOLK2/0e6919e4410f578e62279f25a60d82d2/Grafik_WP_web_kontur.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],"teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"2RmnCnJEHpabs1A4OkOLK2","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik_WP_alt_web_kontur","description":"","file":"$36:54:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - GIGA Working Papers","date":"2015-08-01T00:00:00.000Z"}}],["29R2VMpK6tZHvn57O8dmRt",{"sys":{"id":"29R2VMpK6tZHvn57O8dmRt","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Global_2018_02","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Nach Kriegsende verbesserten sich in vielen Ländern die formalen Möglichkeiten und Voraussetzungen für die Beteiligung von Jugendlichen. In El Salvador, Guatemala, Kambodscha, Nicaragua, Peru und Südafrika stieg der Anteil der Jugendlichen in weiterführenden Schulen in der ersten Friedensdekade deutlich an. Im Vergleich zur Generation ihrer Eltern sind diese Jugendlichen besser ausgebildet. Die formalen Möglichkeiten der politischen Beteiligung wurden insbesondere in den Gesellschaften besser, in denen Krieg und Kriegsbeendigung mit einem Regimewandel und politischer Öffnung einhergingen. Dies gilt vor allem für die Nachkriegsgesellschaften in Zentralamerika (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala) und im südlichen Afrika (Südafrika, Mosambik). Wie nutzen Jugendliche diese formalen Möglichkeiten und vor welchen Herausforderungen stehen sie beim Übergang in das Erwachsenenleben?","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Politische Partizipation kann sehr unterschiedliche Formen annehmen. In repräsentativen Demokratien umfasst sie die Kandidatur für politische Ämter, die Mitgliedschaft in politischen Parteien oder Interessengruppen, die Beteiligung an Wahlen, Protesten oder anderen Formen der Einflussnahme auf politische Entscheidungsträger. Dies gilt für Jugendliche, sobald sie in der Regel das 18. Lebensjahr vollendet haben, ebenso wie für Erwachsene. Trotz der weit verbreiteten Behauptung, Jugendliche seien unpolitisch, sind viele von ihnen engagiert, wie zahlreiche Proteste im Umfeld des Arabischen Frühlings, aber auch in Spanien, Griechenland, den USA oder Mexiko in den Jahren 2011 und 2012 gezeigt haben. Im Vergleich zu Erwachsenen bevorzugen Jugendliche andere Formen der Beteiligung, wie etwa neue soziale Medien, oder engagieren sich deutlich stärker in der Zivilgesellschaft.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Eine Analyse der Erfahrungen junger Menschen in El Salvador, Nicaragua und Südafrika weist darauf hin, dass dies zugleich für Nachkriegsgesellschaften gilt."},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" Ähnlich wie in anderen Gesellschaften engagieren sich Jugendliche in erster Linie innerhalb der Zivilgesellschaft, in Sportvereinen, kulturellen Organisationen oder in den Kirchen. Ihr Engagement im politischen System unterscheidet sich allerdings von dem der Erwachsenen: Die Teilnahme an Wahlen ist geringer, die Protestbereitschaft dagegen größer (vgl. dazu Grafik 2)."}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Dennoch ist es keineswegs so, dass Jugendliche politisch uninteressiert sind. In Gesprächen gaben sie zum Beispiel an, dass sie sich von Politikern im Vorfeld von Wahlen „instrumentalisiert“ oder als „Staffage“ (Rosales 2016: 28) missbraucht sehen. Ihr Vertrauen in politische Parteien ist ebenso gering wie die Hoffnung, durch Wahlen etwas verändern zu können. Eine junge Frau in Südafrika brachte es auf den Punkt: „Wenn du gehört werden willst, musst du Lärm machen“ (Heuser 2016: 20). Allerdings birgt die Beteiligung an Protesten auch Gefahren, weil diese entweder nicht ernst genommen oder kriminalisiert werden. In Nicaragua berichten Jugendliche beispielsweise über den Einsatz von Schlägertrupps gegen Demonstranten: „Jeder weiß, dass sie zur Regierung gehören“ (Ostermeier 2016: 23).\n","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["2A5oeWbv98XYw4Ks6nf9AR",{"sys":{"id":"2A5oeWbv98XYw4Ks6nf9AR","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2019_01_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"This GIGA Focus deviates from the typical format of the Focus series. It is the joint product of several IAA staff. Julia Grauvogel and Charlotte Heyl authored the section on elections and democracy; Hannah Smidt wrote the segment on limitations to civic freedom; Malte Lierl penned the part on Togo; Nicole Hirt contributed on Ethiopia; Matthias Basedau wrote the segment on current conflicts; Christian von Soest and Julia Grauvogel contributed on the AU and on subregional organisations; Tabea Lakemann authored the parts on the free trade zone, the threats of a debt crisis, the post-Cotonou negotiations, and – together with Hannah Smidt – the role of Germany in the UNSC."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Election Watch and Democratisation 2019: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly?"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$46"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$47"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Three authoritarian regimes promise either legislative elections, as in Cameroon and Chad, or presidential ones, as in Mauritania. It is, however, uncertain whether the elections in Chad will indeed take place, having been repeatedly postponed since 2015. The bulk of this year’s elections will happen in countries in the grey zone between democracy and authoritarianism, such as Malawi, Mozambique, and Nigeria – the latter a crucial case. Four years after the widely celebrated first turnover at the ballot box in the country’s history, the elections’ outcome remains open with many risks attached – especially in light of multiple conflicts in Nigeria."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$48"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Civil Society under Continued Pressure"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"A growing number of governments in sub-Saharan Africa crack down on civil society organisations – mirroring the current global trend of such restrictions being imposed. In so doing, African governments curtail the ability of civil society groups to monitor government behaviour, provide independent information on government wrongdoing, or deliver key services to those in need. Yet, the trend towards closing civic space is "},{"nodeType":"text","value":"not"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" uniform across organisations and regions. Restrictions tend to target non-governmental organisations (NGOs), especially those with international connections, rather than local collectives such as women’s cooperatives or church-based groups. Moreover, while space for civil society organisations is not shrinking in many countries in Southern and West Africa, those in East Africa (e.g. in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, and Uganda) find themselves coming under increasing pressure."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$49"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed on the Path to Further Reform and Peace"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Following the election of Dr. Abiy Ahmed as Ethiopian prime minister in April 2018, the country went through a stunning series of political and (to a lesser extent) economic reforms. Abiy apologised for past mistakes by the ruling EPRDF coalition, especially with regard to human rights violations, released thousands of political prisoners, legalised opposition parties that had formerly been labelled as “terrorist organisations,” put an end to Internet censorship, and called exiled opposition leaders back home to work together for the future of Ethiopia. He took measures against land grabbing and also appointed 50 per cent women to the new cabinet, including the minister of defence. He engaged in dialogue with opposition parties and promised free and fair elections for the year 2020. He went as far as pardoning all leaders of armed guerrilla groups, and invited them to return."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In another surprising move, he broke the stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea by accepting an international border verdict dating back to 2002 and reached out to Eritrean president Isaias Afewerki, inviting him to Addis Ababa. There, he turned the usually stern-looking dictator into a blissfully happy man who pledged to accept the Ethiopian PM as “our leader” (Zere 2018). In September, both countries signed a peace agreement, and Abiy worked on improving the relations between Djibouti and Asmara and facilitating a rapprochement between Somalia and Eritrea."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The year 2019 will show whether Abiy can continue with his reforms, and whether he can improve security across the country. The prime minister survived an assassination attempt in June 2018, and managed to appease a mutiny by hundreds of soldiers who entered the grounds of his office in September. Security has been tightened in recent months, but there is still a risk that opponents of his reforms among the Tigrayan elites or militant Oromo groups might make further attempts on his life. The major challenge that Abiy faces is the ongoing ethnic violence in different parts of the country, which has internally displaced up to three million people. It also seems that the Oromo Liberation Front is not willing to participate in a peaceful democratic process, planning instead to continue its armed struggle. Besides containing ethnic violence, liberalisation of the economy despite the establishment’s resistance to that will be Abiy’s other significant challenge in the year ahead."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Togo: A Moment of Truth"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$4a"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Hotspots of Conflict: Power Struggles, Identity Group Dynamics, and Jihadism"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$4b"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Implementation Is Key for AU Reform to Be Successful"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$4c"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$4d"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$4e"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Germany’s Seat in the UN Security Council and the Need to Reform UN Peacekeeping"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Germany began its two-year membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in January 2019. While it does not have veto power as a non-permanent member, Germany’s influence should not be underestimated – also for dealing with Africa-related issues. Germany is now the fourth-largest contributor to the UN budget and the second-largest provider of humanitarian aid and official development assistance. Also, Germany maintains good relations with most UN members, winning its bid for UNSC membership with the strongest polling of all contenders (184 out of 193 possible votes, where all candidates ran unopposed in their respective regional categories)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$4f"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Third, Germany’s topical priorities for its stint in the UNSC are relevant for African countries. Strengthening peace, justice, innovation, and partnerships have been announced as key goals of Germany’s tenure. The German ambassador to the UN, Christoph Heusgen, outlined that Germany will actively put new issues on the agenda during its presidency of the UNSC in April 2019 and mid-2020. A first focus will be on women, peace, and security, more specifically on strengthening women’s representation in mediation processes and conflict prevention – and on combating sexual violence in conflict contexts such as South Sudan or the DRC. Moreover, climate and security will be a strong focus of Germany’s work, with the Lake Chad basin being a key example of a region where climate change, migratory pressures, conflict, and humanitarian crises all closely interact."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"As one of the largest Western troop contributors to UN peacekeeping operations, Germany is directly affected by the fact that their personnel losses are higher in war-torn countries in Africa than in any other world region. This trend will likely continue in 2019, and brings with it the need to address a number of strategic questions regarding the design of future UN peacekeeping operations on the continent – an important task for the UNSC. The UN currently concentrates its peacekeeping resources on conflicts in Africa indeed. Nearly 80,000 uniformed peacekeepers are deployed in six African countries: Central African Republic, DRC, Mali, South Sudan, Sudan (Darfur and Abyei), and Western Sahara."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Yet, greater peacekeeping efforts in absolute terms are not the only explanation for higher casualty numbers in Africa. Deaths of peacekeepers "},{"nodeType":"text","value":"relative"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" to the numbers deployed in a country are also higher in Africa than in any other world region. What makes peacekeeping in Africa more dangerous is the specific nature of the operating environment and mandate of the blue helmets. Apart from Western Sahara, all peacekeeping operations in Africa are deployed in ongoing wars and tasked with robust and pre-emptive operations. Mali is an exemplary case of robust peacekeeping. UN peacekeepers there coordinate with French and West African troops to fight Islamist insurgent groups, and thus explicitly side with the government. As such, robust operations blur the distinction between peacekeeping and combat."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In this year’s lead-up to the overhaul of the UN peace and security architecture by 2020, fatalities and failures vis-à-vis peacekeeping in Africa should prompt strategic thinking about the future of these multilateral operations more generally. Currently, policy debates feature two avenues for change. First, UN peacekeeping operations morph into effective counter-insurgency operations. This transition would require more personnel and equipment (for example, attack helicopters), greater operational intelligence, and the increased preparedness of individual soldiers for combat – endeavours of unlikely success, given the recent UN budget cuts and US scepticism about multilateral solutions. Second, and alternatively, UN peacekeeping operations leave combat to state armies and regional organisations. As UNSC member in 2019 and significant contributor to the UN peacekeeping operation in Mali, Germany should hence keep in mind the proven track record of non-coercive strength of these operations."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Grand Strides for Africa’s Economic Integration"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"An impressive 44 African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) at the AU summit in Kigali in March 2018; five more followed suit later. Knowing the difficulties of regional integration in Africa, the big questions for 2019 are if, when, and how the AfCFTA will become a reality. With news of additional ratifications coming in by the hour and the current total standing at 18, the quorum of 22 official ratifications is within reach; the AfCFTA becoming official is a very realistic possibility in 2019. The next AU summit, in Addis Ababa in early 2019, will reveal whether the momentum can be maintained under the presidency of Egypt, one of the few countries that has not yet ratified the AfCFTA."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$50"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"A Stronger African Voice Emerges in the Post-Cotonou Negotiations"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$51"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$52"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Further Watch Africa’s Looming Debt Crises"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Quickly rising sovereign debt levels are becoming more problematic across the entire continent. As of January 2019, 17 low- and lower middle-income countries in Africa are either facing a high risk of debt distress or are already in the midst of it according to recent International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank joint debt sustainability assessments. Given that only eight countries fell into this category in 2013 and 2014, and that low debt levels at the time partly owed to the success of multilateral debt relief initiatives, this is an alarming development."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Public debt has not only risen but also its composition changed, in three key ways: First, there has been a surge in bond finance over the past decade, with especially lower middle-income countries such as Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, or Kenya increasingly turning to international markets. Second, there has been a rise in bilateral borrowing from countries outside the Paris Club (a group of creditor countries that are mostly Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD, members) – most prominently, China. This category of borrowing accounted for almost one-third of the public and publicly guaranteed debt of countries in sub-Saharan Africa in 2016. Third, the share of concessional debt – meaning that including special conditions for developing countries – has declined."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Taken together, these developments leave African governments more exposed to market conditions than before when it comes to government financing. Having benefitted from low interest rates and enthusiasm for emerging markets when issuing their bonds, governments might have to pay higher premia once they start maturing and need to be refinanced, in the 2020s. Loans from China are still a welcome alternative to Western conditionality for many, but come with their own caveats and put African debtors at the mercy of one single creditor. African countries are becoming increasingly weary of these downsides."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"This will be a decisive year for debtors and creditors alike, with new modes of debt management yet to emerge. African countries that are about to take on more debt may hopefully negotiate conditions well, and protect their assets. Angola, which had borrowed heavily from China and got into arrears following the global oil price deterioration and ensuing economic crisis, already secured IMF technical and financial assistance in late 2018. Ethiopia managed to negotiate debt restructuring with China in 2018, but was nevertheless recently moved into the “high-risk” category. The year ahead will also be a test for the Paris Club, where OECD members and multilateral institutions were previously able to negotiate debt haircuts among themselves."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["2CcD62WeSWZ6vfRNjIvuQm",{"sys":{"id":"2CcD62WeSWZ6vfRNjIvuQm","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Tabelle GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7","title":"Tabelle GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7","altText":"Tabelle Machtwechsel in Subsahara-Afrika, 1990 bis 2017","copyright":"Eigene Erhebung basierend auf The Brookings Institution 2015, Goemans, Gleditsch und Chiozza 2009 sowie Carbone und Pellegata 2017 (Stand: 30. Sept. 2017)","caption":"Tabelle 1:\nMachtwechsel in Subsahara-Afrika, 1990 bis 2017","media":{"sys":{"id":"2FuM13yp31ta2o6ZXCejTw","type":"Asset"},"title":"Tabelle GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/2FuM13yp31ta2o6ZXCejTw/b5d4e4f42ffc26e49cdff01742e30a85/tabelle_1_web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["2HU6NMQiFyGbJ3T6vfPl1I",{"sys":{"id":"2HU6NMQiFyGbJ3T6vfPl1I","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2019_03_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"For international development assistance, promoting good governance is one of the top priorities in Africa. More than in any other region of the world, fragile public institutions, rampant bureaucratic corruption, and the problematic legitimacy of governments all impede the provision of essential public goods and services. Yet, despite significant reform efforts in many countries, the continent as a whole trails other world regions on measures of corruption and state fragility. Are governance failures in Africa simply intractable, or do we have the wrong ideas on how to fix them?"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$53"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In the context of African politics, problems of governance run much deeper than ensuring the accountability of the public sector. Many states lack societal backing and legitimacy, and this has fundamental consequences for how they operate (Englebert 2009). As scholars of African politics have argued, political power is not derived from the formal institutions of the state nor is it legitimised by the provision of public services (Bratton and van de Walle 1994: 458ff.). Instead, patron–client networks – often organised along ethnic community lines – function as the main sources of political power (Hyden 2012; Lemarchand and Legg 1972). Patronage sustains the social influence, prestige, and negotiating capital of elites, and is used to co-opt political challengers (Arriola 2009). Informal social relationships are integral to governance processes, and so are the social norms and principles that govern them."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$54"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"To make this point, this contribution critically examines three widespread assumptions that have frequently been adopted by development organisations seeking to promote better governance and public service provision in Africa:"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"It concludes by calling for a more realistic approach to governance reforms. This modified approach should first and foremost seek to understand the informal norms and social expectations vis-à-vis public decision makers, prior to conceptualising institutional solutions to governance failures."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"“Greater Transparency Will Reduce Corruption”"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Transparency initiatives rank highly on the priority list of anti-corruption efforts. It is, however, important to distinguish between two different goals in transparency initiatives: deterring foreign corrupt practices by international corporations and increasing the domestic accountability of public decision makers. Growing law enforcement against foreign corrupt practices has become an effective deterrent for international corporations in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Devel-opment (OECD) countries. However, efforts to increase domestic accountability regarding corruption in African countries remain troubled at every level."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$55"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"What is often misunderstood is that, in many Africa countries, corruption is generally not clandestine or hidden from society. Instead, it is rather conspicuous. This not only includes grand corruption, such as fraudulent government contracts, but also petty corruption such as the collection of bribes by police or low-level admini-strators, or the misappropriation of food aid or agricultural subsidy vouchers by village leaders (Lierl 2018). Petty corruption is experienced by millions of citizens as part of their everyday lives."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$56"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$57"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The conspicuousness of corruption in many African states and continued impunity imply that policymakers should re-think the assumed causality between transparency and corruption. Deliberate transparency efforts are adopted if public decision makers are not planning to engage in corruption anyway, and expect to benefit from showing this. If the circumstances are right, it is easy to envision a virtuous cycle of decreasing corruption and increasing transparency and public trust. However, a lack of transparency is not the reason why corruption persists in many African states. The causes must be sought rather in the social acceptance of corruption and in the expectations that political decision makers are confronted with."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"“Promoting Citizen Participation Will Increase the Legitimacy of State Institutions”"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In a special paper on "},{"nodeType":"text","value":"Promoting Resilient States and Constructive State–Society Relations"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development claims that: “Promoting political involvement strengthens the legitimacy of state institutions and the democratic accountability of political players” (BMZ 2009: 3). The paper further argues that political involvement “makes the actions of government and public administration more transparent, strengthens checks and balances, and allows effective action to be taken against corruption, arbitrary state rule, and abuse of power” (ibid.). This widely held belief is the basis of a whole class of development interventions designed to increase citizen participation in governance. These programmes come in a variety of shapes and forms, including participatory budgeting, community-driven development, community monitoring of public services, as well as the promotion of civil society organisations (CSOs) and support for closer coordination between civil society groups."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$58"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$59"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$5a"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$5b"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"For all of these reasons, participatory governance mechanisms and civil society involvement in government affairs are seldom a serious concern for political leaders in Africa. Politicians there are willing to go along with foreign donors’ demands for citizen participation, knowing that their true sources of political power are mostly unaffected by it. Since externally promoted citizen participation does not generate serious threats to the political status quo, it is, in practice, unlikely to amount to more than mere window dressing."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"“Decentralisation Brings the Government Closer to the People”"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In the late 1990s and early years of the new century, a wave of decentralisation reforms spread across Africa. Foreign aid donors and multilateral institutions such as the World Bank were enticed by the idea of creating independent local institutions that would manage public funds autonomously and deliver basic public services to the population. Decentralisation would allow donors to finance local-level public services directly, bypassing central government structures that were perceived as corrupt, inefficient, and sometimes undemocratic too. Above all, advocates of decen-tralisation believed in its potential to increase public accountability. Decentralised governments were believed to be “closer to the people” and better informed about local needs (Bardhan and Mookherjee 2000)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Decentralisation reforms devolved central government powers to newly created local-level institutions, such as mayors and local councils. Through local elections and a variety of consultative forums, typically connected to the elaboration of local development plans and annual investment decisions, the new institutional framework was supposed to give rise to a democratic process at the local level. Citizens, CSOs, and public service providers would articulate their demands to local decision makers, and demand accountability from them. Local governments, empowered to raise local taxes and entitled to regular fiscal transfers from the state, would be responsible for providing essential public services such as primary education and healthcare, water and sanitation, as well as local infrastructure. Elected representatives would oversee local administrations and service providers meanwhile."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The institutional design of decentralisation reforms in Africa followed similar templates in most countries (Dickovick and Riedl 2014). For example, in former French colonies, concepts of France’s decentralisation reform in 1982 were replicated. “Best practices” advocated for by international donors were copied from country to country as decentralisation reforms spread across the continent. Almost identical decentralisation-support projects were financed by donors in different countries, and ensured that it was carried out in very similar ways. Despite their respectable intentions, the institutional design of decentralisation reforms had three conceptual shortcomings to it."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$5c"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$5d"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Third, the problems that prevented national-level political institutions from functioning like their equivalents in advanced, industrialised democracies naturally also occurred at the local level too. The clientelism and public sector patronage that undermine the effectiveness of centralised bureaucracies endure in decentralised systems. Elected local politicians are often poorly qualified to oversee local bureaucracies, and it is easier for them to collude with corrupt bureaucrats than it is to defend the interests of their constituents (Raffler 2018). Political competition continues to be shaped by national-level divides, especially in ethnically polarised countries. If anything, decentralisation has allowed political parties to establish regional or ethnic strongholds – where they are quasi-hegemonic. In most local elections political competition therefore remains weak, and decentralisation does not lead to greater electoral accountability."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$5e"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Improving Governance in Africa"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The three examples mentioned in the preceding discussion – transparency and accountability interventions, participatory governance, and decentralisation reforms – highlight the pitfalls of attempting to change the political reality in Africa to conform to idealised conceptions of good governance. Assumptions about governance that may seem perfectly plausible in the context of advanced, industrialised democracies miss the realities on the ground in many of Africa’s weaker and more fragile states:"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"What, then, can be done to improve governance in Africa? For policymakers, the first implication of these findings is to avoid misdiagnosing governance failures. Analyses of governance problems must not be limited to formal institutions and accountability structures, but should rather seek to understand how public decision makers instrumentalise formal institutions for their own private interests – and how informal power structures enable them to do so with impunity. Many well-meaning approaches to governance reform presuppose that legal norms and formal institutions are the primary sources of citizens’ rights, and of constraints on the discretion of officeholders. In Africa’s predominantly weak and fragile states, however, this fact cannot be taken for granted."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$5f"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["2WnRXe6nDDOpH6QKuQdpCc",{"sys":{"id":"2WnRXe6nDDOpH6QKuQdpCc","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika 2007_10_1.Seite","showHeadlineLeft":false,"backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Am 14. Oktober 2007 hat in Togo eines der ältesten despotischen Regime Afrikas ein neues Parlament unter Beteiligung von Oppositionsparteien wählen lassen. Von der EU-Wahlbeobachtung wurde die Wahl (vorläufig) als ein „wichtiger Schritt zur Demokratisierung“ qualifiziert (Union Européenne 2007). Allerdings ist Togo noch weit entfernt vom Niveau der benachbarten Demokratien Ghana und Benin."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Analyse:"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Noch immer wird der Demokratisierung in Afrika misstraut, offenkundige Erfolge\r\nwerden nur mit höchster Skepsis besprochen. Stattdessen überwiegt weiterhin die Betonung katastrophaler Rückschläge. Allenfalls werden jüngst – möglicherweise zweifelhafte – wirtschaftliche Erfolge in Afrika gefeiert. Dagegen gibt es vor allem in der Politik unübersehbare und teils anhaltende Erfolge zu verzeichnen."}]},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":""}]}]}}}],["2aDDA9jqaXunQsiDs1FPeg",{"sys":{"id":"2aDDA9jqaXunQsiDs1FPeg","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika 2017_05_2","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Diesen politischen Herausforderungen versuchen internationale Geber und Kriegsparteien, die sich zu einem Waffenstillstand durchgerungen haben, vornehmlich durch zwei Maßnahmen zu begegnen: Einerseits setzen sie häufig sogenannte Machtteilungsregierungen (Power-Sharing-Regierungen) ein, in denen ehemalige Rebellen im Austausch für die Zustimmung zu einem Friedensabkommen Ministerposten oder Präsidentenämter erhalten."},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"$60"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["2d69100b-d083-416b-843d-5098d20e9d90",{"sys":{"id":"2d69100b-d083-416b-843d-5098d20e9d90","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"The G20 Compact with Africa: An Incomplete Initiative","path":"/de/publikationen/giga-focus/die-g20-initiative-compact-with-africa-ein-unvollstaendiger-ansatz/","dataTeaser":{"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"type":"GIGA Focus","date":"2/2017","personUuids":["c4bed983-2ed2-452f-b09f-ce511babdc89"],"tagline":["GIGA Focus Afrika"],"link":"https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-52094-2"},"dataDetail":{"doi":[],"date":"06.2017","type":"GIGA Focus","isbns":[],"links":[{"url":"https://pure.giga-hamburg.de/ws/files/21669424/web_africa_2_2017.pdf","title":"Text (PDF-Deutsch)"},{"url":"https://pure.giga-hamburg.de/ws/files/21669426/web_africa_2_2017.pdf","title":"Text (PDF-English)"}],"status":"Veröffentlicht","dateLong":"Juni 2017","pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"roleMaps":[{"role":{"key":"author","value":"Autor:in"},"uuids":["c4bed983-2ed2-452f-b09f-ce511babdc89"]}],"subtitle":"2017 | ISSN: 1862-3603","urnLinks":["https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-52094-2"],"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","dateShort":"2017","publisher":"German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)","unitUuids":["df8790e3-3952-4f8c-961e-13a5821d6550","1b9d3c92-63ad-49fe-bb02-119e2a17eef4"],"seriesIssn":["1862-3603"],"personNames":["Jann Lay"],"personUuids":["c4bed983-2ed2-452f-b09f-ce511babdc89"],"seriesTitle":["GIGA Focus Afrika"],"seriesNumber":["2"],"seriesVolume":[],"isForthcoming":false,"useDynamicPdf":false,"publicationLocation":"Hamburg","relatedProjectUuids":["2829ec23-69ac-414c-900b-5369fe2ffdcd"],"managingOrganisationalUnitUuid":"a65daf31-e463-438f-9891-d1c1e8ad18e4"},"pageIntroMedia":[{"sys":{"id":"16HOH0G4DVCvsCFIvzgFDA","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Focus Afrika 2017_02 (Header)","title":"Bild Focus Afrika 2017_02 (Header)","altText":"Schüler in Nigeria auf dem Weg zur Schule.","copyright":"Reuters / Akintunde Akinleye","media":{"sys":{"id":"zsyonKwb5yGsfJC09stJA","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Afrika 2017_02 (Header)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/zsyonKwb5yGsfJC09stJA/879540dd0c0bb1a9f64ecb38b7a8e379/Bild_Focus_Afrika_2017_02__Header_-resized.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2000,"height":1143}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],"teaserText":{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Ein Schlüsselelement der Partnerschaft zwischen den G20-Staaten und den Staaten Afrikas ist der Compact with Africa mit dem Ziel der Förderung von Privatinvestitionen und von Investitionen in die Infrastruktur. Auf der Afrika-Partnerschaftskonferenz der G20 in Berlin wurden die Entwürfe vorgestellt. 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Die katastrophalen Zustände werden für massive Migrationsbewegungen in der Gegenwart und Zukunft verantwortlich gemacht. Dieses negative öffentliche Bild steht in starkem Kontrast zu zahlreichen positiven Entwicklungen, die in der Öffentlichkeit kaum bekannt sind."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-3","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Entwicklungen in Afrika sind als Chance zu begreifen. Politik und Wissenschaft sollten die Negativorientierung hinterfragen, die Trends überprüfen sowie die „Treiber“ von positiven Entwicklungen identifizieren. Verstärkt sollten lange Zeiträume betrachtet werden. Die Erkenntnisse sind direkte Anknüpfungspunkte für Afrikapolitik und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["2kQOIDgJqShv66ckMoKNkf",{"sys":{"id":"2kQOIDgJqShv66ckMoKNkf","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2019_02_4","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$62","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die positiven politischen Entwicklungen hängen möglicherweise mit einem veränderten regionalen Umfeld zusammen. Regionalorganisationen wie die Afrikanische Union (AU) oder regionale Organisationen in West- und Südafrika suspendieren Mitglieder sobald es zu Militärputschen oder anderen, verfassungswidrigen Unregelmäßigkeiten kommt. Die Bestimmungen der Charta der AU lassen überdies auch zu, dass Interventionen gegen nicht verfassungsgemäße Regimewechsel ohne Zustimmung des betreffenden Staates durchgeführt werden (Art 4h). Ein anschauliches Beispiel ist der Sturz des ehemaligen Putschführers und langjährigen Präsidenten Yahya Jammeh im westafrikanischen Gambia. Wider eigenes Erwarten verlor er die Wahlen im Jahr 2016. Seine Weigerung die Niederlage zu akzeptieren führte zu einem Eingreifen der AU, der ECOWAS und wichtiger Anrainerstaaten wie dem Senegal. Nach militärischen Drohungen und Verhandlungen musste Jammeh ins Exil und für den neugewählten Präsidenten Adama Barrow den Stuhl räumen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die konsequente Sanktionierung von nicht verfassungsgemäßen Vorfällen lässt auf eine wachsende Internalisierung entsprechender Normen schließen. Es muss berücksichtigt werden, dass die Rückkehr zur Zivilmacht nicht immer demokratisch substanziell ausfällt, aber der Wandel gegenüber früher ist substanziell (Hartmann 2015). Der Bedeutungszuwachs beschränkt sich nicht nur auf demokratische Normen. Mit der Einrichtung des Peace and Security Councils (PSC) der AU im Jahr 2004 könnte auch ein Grund gefunden sein, warum eine Verringerung der Kriegstoten zu beobachten ist. Die AU kümmert sich um Krisen und engagiert sich zunehmend in Form von eigenen friedenserhaltenden Missionen. Diese Missionen sind laut Studien ein Grund für die Verringerung der Opferzahlen (z.B. Pinker 2018).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Der politische Fortschritt ist nicht nur ein Elitenprojekt. Der mitunter hinter vorgehaltener Hand geäußerte Verdacht, Afrikaner wünschten sich Autokratie, ist schlicht nicht zutreffend. Die Untersuchungen des Afrobarometers zeigen, dass eine große Mehrheit die Demokratie jeder anderen, insbesondere einer autoritären Form von Herrschaft vorzieht (Afrobarometer 2019; Grauvogel und Heyl 2017). Es sei konzediert, dass es in den letzten Jahren Stagnation oder leichte Rückschritte gab – der Befund von deutlicher demokratischer Mehrheit bleibt.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Auch im Bereich der politischen Partizipation von Frauen gibt es noch starke Defizite, wobei auch hier positive Entwicklungen verzeichnet werden können. Bislang wurden mit Ellen-Johnson Sirleaf (Liberia) und Joyce Banda (Malawi) nur zwei Frauen in Präsidentenämter mit Exekutivvollmachten gewählt, und beide sind nicht mehr im Amt. Die politische Repräsentation von Frauen ist allerdings deutlich gestiegen. Im Jahr 2017 waren etwa 23,6 Prozent der Abgeordneten der Parlamente weiblich. Das ist nicht nur ein deutlicher Anstieg gegenüber dem Jahr 1995 mit lediglich 11,9 Prozent, und leicht über dem globalen Durchschnitt von etwa 22 Prozent, sondern auch nicht allzu weit entfernt von den 30 Prozent im aktuellen Bundestag und mehr als den 20 Prozent im US-amerikanischen Kongress vor den letzten Zwischenwahlen","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"value":" – wie die ugandische Ministerin für Privatisierung Evelyn Anite nicht ohne Süffisanz angemerkt hat (Anite 2017).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Besser, nicht unbedingt gut: Was die positiven Trends bedeuten und was nicht","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$63","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Natürlich lassen sich die hier vorgestellten Thesen zum Afropositivismus und die dazugehörigen Fakten auch als solche infrage stellen – und genau dies sollte geschehen. Es kann zunächst die verwendeten Daten betreffen. Sind diese zuverlässig und valide oder gibt es Gründe, von einer systematischen Verzerrung zugunsten positiver Entwicklungen auszugehen? Eine theoretische Möglichkeit wäre, dass etwa die Daten zu Kriegstoten in der Vergangenheit weniger genau waren und deren Anzahl in der Vergangenheit stark überschätzt wurde bzw. dass die Zahl der indirekten Kriegstoten überproportional gestiegen ist (Basedau und Mappes 2015)","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"value":". Eine wohl triftigere Kritik betrifft die Auswahl der Indikatoren und Daten. Gibt es in anderen Bereichen negative Entwicklungen oder Stagnation? Obwohl bewusst grundlegende Indikatoren gewählt wurden, ist dies natürlich nicht ausgeschlossen. So stagnieren Governanceindikatoren und die Demokratiewerte bzw. diesbezüglichen Experteneinschätzungen sind nach verschiedenen Indizes für Afrika seit einigen Jahren leicht rückläufig (Grauvogel und Heyl 2017). Auch scheint es generell mehr Einschränkungen für die Zivilgesellschaft zu geben (Smidt 2018), selbst wenn dies langfristig nicht der Fall ist (Richter 2018). Zwar ändert dies wenig an dem durchaus fundamentalen Wandel seit Ende des Kalten Krieges, aber es verweist mindestens auf einen weiteren Punkt, nämlich die Interpretation der Fakten.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$64","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$65","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Eine abwägende Perspektive hat Implikationen für mögliche Handlungsimperative: Ein „feel-good narrative“, das zur Untätigkeit verleitet, wäre eine verhängnisvolle Schlussfolgerung (Wadongo 2014). Es sollte auch nicht leichtfertig davon ausgegangen werden, dass alle Konsequenzen positiv sind. Zwar mögen langfristig Migrationsursachen beseitigt werden, kurz- und mittelfristig könnte aber das Gegenteil der Fall sein. Die Migration nach Europa ist nicht nur eine Frage der Motivation, sondern auch des „Könnens“. Erhöhte Lebenserwartung und höheres Einkommen könnten für die unmittelbare Zukunft dazu führen, dass es mehr und nicht weniger Migration nach Europa gibt (Lakemann und Lay 2018). Ähnliche Befunde gelten für Umweltbelastungen und ungeplante Urbanisierung, die Probleme verursachen können. Die richtige Interpretation der Befunde besteht darin, sorgfältig sowohl Konsequenzen als auch Ursachen abzuschätzen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Anknüpfungspunkte für Wissenschaft, Afrikapolitik und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit: Was ist denn da richtig gelaufen?","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Tatsächlich sind die dargelegten positiven Entwicklungen in besonderer Weise geeignet, die richtigen Schlussfolgerungen für Wissenschaft und Politik zu ziehen. Wenn etwas „gut gelaufen ist“, dann muss es dafür Gründe geben. Und wenn wir diese Gründe identifizieren können, dann kann daran die deutsche, europäische und westliche Afrikapolitik und die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit direkt und wirksam anknüpfen – mindestens genauso gilt dies für die Akteure vor Ort.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die Wissenschaft sollte zunächst die Befunde hinterfragen und ggf. korrigieren oder modifizieren. Das fängt vielleicht auch damit an, die grundsätzliche Defizitorientierung zu hinterfragen, gilt aber ebenso wie für eine positive Betrachtungsweise. Dabei sind zwei Einsichten wichtig: Anstatt ausschließlich Mikroperspektiven einzunehmen und der Aktualität verpflichtet zu sein, sollte das „Big Picture“ und die „longue durée“ stets im Auge behalten werden.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$66","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$67","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Welche Imperative ergeben sich für die praktische Politik? Zunächst gilt es dabei, das durchweg negative Afrikabild zu korrigieren – ohne der Versuchung zu erliegen, ein überzogen rosiges Bild zu zeichnen. Bereits jetzt haben positive Trends Eingang in zentrale Dokumente der Bundesregierung gefunden (Bundesregierung 2014). Eine Abkehr vom Zerrbild des chronischen Krisenkontinents befördert auch den Respekt gegenüber afrikanischen Staatschefs, der vor dem Hintergrund der Kolonialvergangenheit besonders wichtig für die Zusammenarbeit ist. Die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit sollte den „Afropositivismus“ nicht fürchten. Dass Bemühungen um Entwicklungserfolge möglicherweise nicht vergebens waren, sollte Ansporn genug sein.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$68","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Der Autor dankt Nora Kiefer, Jann Lay und Sabine Kurtenbach für hilfreiche Anmerkungen zu früheren Versionen des Manuskriptes sowie Jasmina Malikova für die Unterstützung bei der Erstellung der Abbildung 1.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["2njmx7VsTITbchXCh35w6Y",{"sys":{"id":"2njmx7VsTITbchXCh35w6Y","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2019_02_1","title":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2019_02_1","altText":"Grafische Darstellung der langfristigen Entwicklung des HDI.","copyright":"Eigene Darstellung nach de la Escosura 2013. ","caption":"Abb. 1\nLangfristige Entwicklung des HDI (1870-2005)\nZahlen beziehen auch Nordafrika ein, dessen Werte höher sind als im subsaharischen Afrika, die Trends sind jedoch gleichermaßen positiv.","media":{"sys":{"id":"33yJkeSL15jVA4uQhNn7Oi","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2019_02_1","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/33yJkeSL15jVA4uQhNn7Oi/4d5cd0e8039f0f5d6478ed6fe63c0d94/Abb1-Focus-Afrika-2019-02-web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["2oZOY8yRwTIdanShnyB5EB",{"sys":{"id":"2oZOY8yRwTIdanShnyB5EB","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_2","title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_2","altText":"Grafik Bedeutung von Demokratie: Einstellungen in 36 Staaten Subsahara-Afrikas in den Jahren 2014/2015","copyright":"Afrobarometer (2016), Übersetzung der Autorinnen","caption":"Abbildung 2:\nBedeutung von Demokratie: Einstellungen in 36 Staaten Subsahara-Afrikas in den Jahren 2014/2015","media":{"sys":{"id":"5ow5JDEIsr94BK2AvphVZo","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_2","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/5ow5JDEIsr94BK2AvphVZo/a036925ee1fbc39a8ba93809c0055eaa/Abbildung2_web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["2zMuVwc7X4L0odAT0r5UaA",{"sys":{"id":"2zMuVwc7X4L0odAT0r5UaA","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_1","title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_1","altText":"Grafik Demokratieentwicklung in Subsahara-Afrika: Anzahl der Staaten mit freien, nicht freien und autoritären Regierungen","copyright":"Eigene Darstellung nach Daten von Freedom House 2017","caption":"Abbildung 1:\nDemokratieentwicklung in Subsahara-Afrika: Anzahl der Staaten mit freien, nicht freien und autoritären Regierungen","media":{"sys":{"id":"5jQwaFrvP6Fa3QTjyucIBS","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_1","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/5jQwaFrvP6Fa3QTjyucIBS/73ee8ebacab9176f557dbeabd09c8041/Abbildung1_web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["305vddaV0n3PJ2vTMMMPIb",{"sys":{"id":"305vddaV0n3PJ2vTMMMPIb","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"GIGA Focus Afrika 2011_12_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In Mosambik arbeitet derzeit eine parlamentarische Kommission an einer Verfassungsreform. Die Opposition befürchtet, dass die Regierungspartei FRELIMO ihre Mehrheit in der Kommission nutzen wird, um Präsident Armando Guebuza nach 2014 eine weitere Amtszeit zu ermöglichen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Analyse"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"\nAmtszeitbeschränkungen sollen sowohl das Entstehen als auch die Konsolidierung von demokratischen Regimen begünstigen, da sie Machtwechsel erleichtern und somit demokratiehemmende Patronage-Netzwerke auflösen können. In Mosambik deutet derzeit vieles darauf hin, dass es zum zweiten personellen Machtwechsel seit Einführung des Mehrparteiensystems kommen wird – wenn auch erneut nicht zu einem Wechsel der Regierungspartei. Ein personeller Machtwechsel bedeutet nicht zwangsläufig auch ein Mehr an Demokratie. Erfahrungen in Subsahara-Afrika im Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2011 zeigen, dass die Versuchung, Amtszeitbeschränkungen zu umgehen, weiterhin groß ist, die Umsetzung in der Realität aber zunehmend schwerer wird. Nicht einmal die Hälfte aller Versuche zur Beseitigung von Amtszeitbeschränkungen war erfolgreich."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":""}],"data":{}}]}}}],["30e13150-8dd7-457f-9621-b58d739c4c9a",{"sys":{"id":"30e13150-8dd7-457f-9621-b58d739c4c9a","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Latin America in Times of Turbulence: Presidentialism under Stress","path":"/de/publikationen/buecher/latin-america-in-times-of-turbulence-presidentialism-under-stress/","dataTeaser":{"date":"06.2023","link":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003324249","type":"Sammelband","tagline":["Routledge Studies in Latin American Politics","Routledge"],"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/bookanthology/anthology","value":"Sammelband"},"blueprint":"PUBLICATION","teaserText":"This book accounts for and analyses the latest developments in Latin American presidential democracies, with a special focus on political institutions.","personUuids":["5c038f0f-efcf-40a3-9fb3-ddb12e3deda4","b42c2cd5-d28d-4cdd-b0de-d3a03a2e8fdb"]},"dataDetail":{"doi":["https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003324249"],"date":"06.2023","type":"Sammelband","isbns":["9781032322612","9781003324249"],"links":[],"status":"Veröffentlicht","dateLong":"Juni 2023","keywords":{"free":[],"structured":[]},"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/bookanthology/anthology","value":"Sammelband"},"roleMaps":[{"role":{"key":"editor","value":"Herausgeber:in (Editor)"},"uuids":["5c038f0f-efcf-40a3-9fb3-ddb12e3deda4","b42c2cd5-d28d-4cdd-b0de-d3a03a2e8fdb"]}],"subtitle":"Sammelband | Routledge | 2023","urnLinks":["https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-86903-8"],"blueprint":"PUBLICATION","dateShort":"2023","publisher":"Routledge","unitUuids":["adb4adf2-146e-47d4-9353-0a3b3da4ac1b","b3ddc657-9933-454b-8b17-869d513f723e"],"seriesIssn":[],"personNames":["Mariana Llanos","Leiv Marsteintredet"],"personUuids":["5c038f0f-efcf-40a3-9fb3-ddb12e3deda4","b42c2cd5-d28d-4cdd-b0de-d3a03a2e8fdb"],"publicLinks":[{"url":"https://www.routledge.com/Latin-America-in-Times-of-Turbulence-Presidentialism-under-stress/Llanos-Marsteintredet/p/book/9781032322612"}],"seriesTitle":["Routledge Studies in Latin American Politics"],"seriesNumber":[],"seriesVolume":[],"isForthcoming":false,"numberOfPages":240,"publicationLocation":"New York","relatedProjectUuids":["1f7d13d6-b4c9-4681-a079-a724a9726f0e"],"managingOrganisationalUnitUuid":"a65daf31-e463-438f-9891-d1c1e8ad18e4"},"teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"47wpAkTIZJRq1GamUKwrvW","type":"Asset"},"title":"Latin America in Times of Turbulence Buchcover Routledge","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/47wpAkTIZJRq1GamUKwrvW/4dd54dd213e6e6542a8448d5c989be6f/Latin_America_in_Times_of_Turbulence_Buchcover_Routledge1.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - Books","date":"2023-06-23T00:00:00.000Z"}}],["30wJsdwhjC7VLn8GGIfZ2x",{"sys":{"id":"30wJsdwhjC7VLn8GGIfZ2x","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika 2017_05_3","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Welche Auswirkungen haben diese beiden Maßnahmen – Bildung von Machtteilungsregierungen und Demokratieförderung – auf die Qualität der Demokratie in Nachkriegsstaaten?","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Machtteilung, politische Konditionalität und Demokratie in Nachkriegsstaaten","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Antworten auf diese Frage setzen eine Analyse der wirtschaftlichen und politischen Interessen von Rebellenführern und alten Machteliten in Nachkriegsregierungen voraus sowie ein Verständnis der Logik politischer Konditionalität in Nachkriegsstaaten.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Eine zentrale Annahme der politischen Ökonomie ist, dass Politiker sowohl nach Machterhalt als auch nach ökonomischer Bereicherung aus der Staatskasse streben."},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" Den Grund dafür sehen viele Theoretiker in der Notwendigkeit, Geld, Gefälligkeiten und Jobs zu vergeben, um sich die weitere Unterstützung zu sichern und die eigene politische Machtbasis auszubauen. Im Kontext afrikanischer Politik sprechen Forscher häufig von „neopatrimonialer Herrschaft“. Dieses Streben nach „Wohlstand durch Macht“ (Bates 2008) ist ein verbreitetes Merkmal schwach institutionalisierter Staaten. Es ist aber besonders ausgeprägt in Nachkriegsstaaten, in denen sich die Kriegsparteien darauf geeinigt haben, die politische Macht in Form von Posten in einer gemeinsamen Regierung zu teilen. Aus mindestens vier Gründen wirken in Power-Sharing-Regierungen die Anreize zur Bereicherung an der Staatskasse besonders stark (Haass und Ottmann 2017):"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"nodeType":"unordered-list"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Damit stehen Politiker in Machtteilungsregierungen beinahe automatisch einer Demokratisierung kritisch gegenüber, denn demokratische Reformen bedrohen nicht nur ihre ökonomische, sondern auch ihre politische Machtbasis. Stellen Geberländer explizite Forderungen zur Demokratisierung an solche Nachkriegsstaaten, erzeugen sie ein Dilemma für die Eliten: Entweder sie stimmen einer politischen Öffnung zu und sichern sich damit die Auszahlung von Entwicklungszuschüssen, dann riskieren sie den Verlust politischer und damit ökonomischer Macht. Oder aber sie verweigern eine Liberalisierung und können ihre Machtposition wahren, dann jedoch riskieren sie, dass Geber ihnen den Geldhahn zudrehen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Konfrontiert mit diesem Dilemma wählen Eliten in Power-Sharing-Regierungen vielfach einen dritten Weg: Sie stimmen Wahlen zu, blockieren aber Reformen in Bereichen wie Rechtsstaatlichkeit und unparteiische Bereitstellung öffentlicher Güter. Gleichzeitig führen sie Wahlen durch, die “gerade sauber genug sind, um eine Prüfung zu bestehen, aber schmutzig genug, um der Opposition den Sieg zu erschweren“ (Ottaway 1993: 3). Mit dieser Strategie gelingt es Eliten, ihre Machtposition zu sichern und gleichzeitig die Zusammenarbeit mit den Geberländern aufrechtzuerhalten.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Diese Logik ist in vielen Staaten sichtbar, aber insbesondere in vielen afrikanischen Staaten, in denen Machtteilungsregierungen zum Standardrepertoire der Konfliktlösungsdiplomatie gehören – über zwei Drittel aller Machtteilungsregierungen zwischen 1990 und 2010 wurden auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent gebildet. Besonders deutlich zeigt sich diese Logik am Beispiel der Demokratischen Republik Kongo (DR Kongo).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Power-Sharing, Demokratieförderung und Demokratisierung in der DR Kongo","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Das Sun-City-Friedensabkommen aus dem Jahr 2002 markierte das Ende eines besonders blutigen Bürgerkrieges in der DR Kongo. Beobachter schätzen, dass der im Jahr 1998 ausgebrochene Konflikt bis zu 3,9 Millionen Menschen das Leben kostete, damit war er der tödlichste Bürgerkrieg der jüngeren afrikanischen Geschichte (Stearns 2012). Das Sun-City-Friedensabkommen führte zu einer Machtteilungsregierung zwischen Anhängern des Präsidenten Joseph Kabila und den zwei Rebellengruppen, Jean-Pierre Bembas Mouvement de Libération du Congo (MLC) aus dem Norden des Landes und dem Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie (RCD) aus dem Osten. Zusammen mit Vertretern der Zivilgesellschaft erhielten Repräsentanten von MLC und RCD zahlreiche Ministerposten und stellten auch die beiden Vizepräsidenten, während Joseph Kabila Präsident wurde. Die Machtteilungsregierung im Kongo wurde im April 2003 etabliert und bestand bis zu den Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen im Dezember 2006.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Während der Übergangsperiode zwischen 2003 und 2006 stiegen die Zuwendungen aus der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit stark an. Im Jahr 2003 entsprachen die ODA-Zuflüsse fast 80 Prozent des kongolesischen Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Die Machtteilung war umfassend; bis zu 18 Ministerposten der Regierung – die insgesamt aus 37 Ministern bestand – waren mit Vertretern der Rebellengruppen besetzt. In dem vom Krieg zerrütteten Land sorgte diese Konstellation zunächst für ein Mindestmaß an Stabilität: Die politische Machtteilung und die beträchtlichen Einnahmen aus der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit stellten sicher, dass die Friedensordnung für die Rebellen profitabler war als die Rückkehr zu den Waffen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$69","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Auch wenn internationale Beobachter vereinzelt Unregelmäßigkeiten feststellten, wurden die Präsidentschaftswahlen im Großen und Ganzen als frei und fair anerkannt. Das Verfahren spiegelt allerdings auch die oben skizzierte Logik der politischen Ökonomie von Machtteilungen wider: Weder Joseph Kabila und seine Unterstützer noch die Anführer der Rebellengruppen, die in der Machtteilungsregierung vertreten gewesen waren, wollten die Wahlen in großem Maßstab manipulieren. Damit hätten sie eine Kürzung der Entwicklungsgelder riskiert. Gleichzeitig hatten die Eliten in der Regierung aber auch kein Interesse daran, weitreichendere Reformen durchzuführen, die ihre Machtposition gefährdet hätten.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Daher bröckelte die Entwicklung demokratischer Institutionen in der DR Kongo in anderen Bereichen, insbesondere litt die Unabhängigkeit der Justiz. Joseph Kabila setzte nicht nur ihm gegenüber loyale Richter am Obersten Gerichtshof ein, sondern schränkte auch die Finanzierung der Gerichte im Land drastisch ein. Dadurch schuf er ein ökonomisches Abhängigkeitsverhältnis zwischen Justiz und Exekutive, das die Unabhängigkeit der Gerichte noch stärker bedrohte (Matti 2010: 47).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Gleichzeitig übersah die auf Wahlen und Stabilität fokussierte internationale Gemeinschaft, dass ihre Wiederaufbauprogramme Klientelismus und Korruption im Land förderten. Ein großer Teil der Hilfsgelder floss in die Taschen der Regierungsmitglieder und ihrer Unterstützergruppen statt in den Aufbau und die Bereitstellung öffentlicher Güter wie Schulen, Straßen und Energieversorgung. Unter Berufung auf eine kongolesische Nichtregierungsorganisation weisen Pierre Englebert und Denis Tull darauf hin, dass der Präsident sowie die anderen Mitglieder der Übergangsregierung 22 Mio. USD an „unklaren Zuwendungen“ erhielten. Diese Summe stellte die gesamten Aufwendungen für das öffentliche Gesundheitswesen, die ländliche Entwicklung und die unabhängige Wahlkommission zusammen (!) in den Schatten (Englebert und Tull 2008: 123).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Mit dieser Strategie gewann Joseph Kabila schlussendlich die Präsidentschaftswahlen im Juli 2006 – eine Strategie, die exemplarisch ist für die oben geschilderte Logik von Machtteilungsregierungen und Demokratieförderung: Vergleichsweise freie und faire Wahlen gehen einher mit Einschränkungen der Rechtsstaatlichkeit und erhöhter Korruption. Die Geberländer sind zufriedengestellt und der Mittelzufluss ist gesichert. In der Folge verweilt allerdings die Demokratie in der DR Kongo in einer Art Schwebezustand: Teilweise funktionierende Elemente wie Wahlen existieren parallel zu dysfunktionalen Elementen wie fehlender Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Korruption.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Dieser Schwebezustand kann aber sowohl die Stabilität des Friedens als auch die Konsolidierung der Demokratie gefährden. Die nächsten Wahlen wurden in der DR Kongo im Jahr 2011 durchgeführt, unter weniger strikter Beobachtung der Geberländer. Sie waren weit stärker durch Unregelmäßigkeiten gekennzeichnet. Und die für 2016 terminierten Wahlen, bei denen Kabila laut Verfassung nicht mehr hätte antreten dürfen, wurden auf unbestimmte Zeit verschoben. Die Unruhen, die nach der Verschiebung der Wahl ausbrachen, lassen Beobachter befürchten, dass die fragile Stabilität der Nachkriegsordnung in der DR Kongo stark gefährdet ist.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Power-Sharing, Demokratieförderung und Demokratisierung im internationalen Vergleich","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die DR Kongo ist kein Einzelfall. Die oben geschilderte Logik von Machtteilungsregierungen und Demokratieförderung sowie deren Effekte auf Wahlen, Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Bereitstellung öffentlicher Güter wirken auch in anderen Nachkriegsstaaten.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In einer statistischen Analyse, die alle Postkonfliktstaaten weltweit zwischen 1990 und 2010 einbezieht, schneiden Staaten mit Machtteilungsregierungen und hohen Einnahmen aus der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit bei der Durchführung von Wahlen vergleichsweise gut ab. Gleichzeitig wird in solchen Staaten aber auch systematisch die Unabhängigkeit der Justiz beschränkt. Und anstatt öffentliche Güter für alle Bürger bereitzustellen, leiten Politiker in den Ländern mit Power-Sharing-Regierungen ihre Staatseinnahmen – darunter auch Einnahmen aus der internationalen Zusammenarbeit – in ihre klientelistischen Netzwerke um.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Abbildung 3 verdeutlicht diesen Befund. Sie zeigt Schätzergebnisse statistischer Simulationen für den Zusammenhang von Power-Sharing-Regierung, Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und unterschiedlichen Demokratieelementen (Haass 2017). Die Variablen sind so skaliert, dass höhere Werte eine höhere Qualität des jeweiligen Indikators anzeigen: freie und fairere Wahlen (links), größere Unabhängigkeit der Justiz (Mitte) und unabhängige Bereitstellung öffentlicher Güter (rechts)."},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" In die Analyse sind 12 Länder mit Power-Sharing-Regierungen einbezogen und 34, in denen es keine solche Regierung gab."}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die linke Grafik zeigt, dass – wie in der DR Kongo – die Qualität der Wahlen in Nachkriegsländern mit Machtteilung und hohen Einnahmen aus der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit vergleichsweise gut ist (dargestellt durch den roten/rechten Koeffizienten). Wenn ODA-Zuflüsse etwa 30 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts ausmachen, wird die Wahlqualität in Staaten mit Machtteilungsregierung fast doppelt so hoch gemessen wie in Staaten mit Machtteilungsregierung, die ohne internationale Finanzhilfen in vergleichbarer Höhe auskommen müssen. Dennoch zeigen die Ergebnisse auch, dass die Wahlen zwar sauberer, aber nicht wirklich akzeptabel sind. Das verdeutlicht die oben geschilderte Logik: Politische Eliten in Power-Sharing-Staaten organisieren Wahlen, mit denen die Geberländer und internationale Beobachter zufriedengestellt werden; diese sind allerdings nicht unbedingt vollständig frei und fair.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["320530f8-c88b-41ca-9f22-85e6cc19ecfd",{"sys":{"id":"320530f8-c88b-41ca-9f22-85e6cc19ecfd","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Senegal (1970-2016): presidential term limit reforms never come alone","path":"/de/publikationen/beitraege/senegal-1970-2016-presidential-term-limit-reforms-never-come-alone/","dataTeaser":{"blueprint":"PUBLICATION","pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/contributiontobookanthology/chapter","value":"Kapitel in Sammelband"},"type":"Kapitel in Sammelband","date":"06.2019","personUuids":["9b073161-e18e-4312-a4fb-304012a6efe7"],"tagline":["Kapitel in Sammelband"]},"dataDetail":{"date":"06.2019","type":"Kapitel in Sammelband","isbns":["9780198837404"],"pages":"339-361","status":"Veröffentlicht","dateLong":"Juni 2019","pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/contributiontobookanthology/chapter","value":"Kapitel in Sammelband"},"roleMaps":[{"role":{"key":"author","value":"Autor:in"},"uuids":["9b073161-e18e-4312-a4fb-304012a6efe7"]}],"subtitle":"Kapitel in Sammelband | Oxford University Press | 2019","blueprint":"PUBLICATION","dateShort":"2019","hostTitle":"The politics of presidential term limits","publisher":"Oxford University Press","unitUuids":["b3ddc657-9933-454b-8b17-869d513f723e","df8790e3-3952-4f8c-961e-13a5821d6550"],"personNames":["Charlotte Heyl"],"personUuids":["9b073161-e18e-4312-a4fb-304012a6efe7"],"isForthcoming":false,"hostEditorNames":["Alexander Baturo","Robert Elgie"],"relatedProjectUuids":["add6bb35-f6b8-4e5f-90f2-bde7fcbc14ee"],"managingOrganisationalUnitUuid":"a65daf31-e463-438f-9891-d1c1e8ad18e4"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - 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Es richtet sich gegen bestimmte Gruppen der Zivilgesellschaft, die aus dem Ausland unterstützt werden. Damit verstärken diese Länder einen weltweiten Trend, indem sie Inhalte sozialer…"},"pageIntroMedia":[{"sys":{"id":"7s3XshuKF9t8bee0pLOoCd","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Focus Asien 2018_03 (Header)","title":"Bild Focus Asien 2018_03 (Header)","altText":"Protest auf den Philippinen gegen das Gesetz zur Internetkriminalität.","copyright":"iStock / h3k27","media":{"sys":{"id":"5vOHhqmYBFJqzQYMueKjFQ","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Asien 2018_03 (Header)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/5vOHhqmYBFJqzQYMueKjFQ/3511dee2fa3ee7734451c62889263021/Bild_Focus_Asien_2018_03__Header_-resized.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2000,"height":1143}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],"teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"5vOHhqmYBFJqzQYMueKjFQ","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Asien 2018_03 (Header)","file":"$36:75:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - GIGA Focus Asia","date":"2018-06-01T00:00:00.000Z","titleOverwrite":"Manipulation des zivilgesellschaftlichen Raums: Cybertrolle in Thailand und den Philippinen"}}],["35LI84WSQ2KkFL5KgR6nt",{"sys":{"id":"35LI84WSQ2KkFL5KgR6nt","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"hr","content":[],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"This GIGA Focus deviates from the Focus series’ typical format. It is the joint product of several IAA staff. Christian von Soest contributed the segment on the African Union; Julia Grauvogel and Charlotte Heyl the section on democracy; Simone Schotte, Jason Sumich, and Christian von Soest the section on South Africa; Nkwachukwu Orji the segment on Nigeria; Nadine Ansorg the passage on the DRC; Tim Glawion the section on the crisis in the CAR; Matthias Basedau the segment on religious conflicts; Simone Schotte and Jann Lay the section on the post-Cotonou negotiations; Tabea Lakemann and Jann Lay the analysis of the Compact and the Marshall Plan; and Nicole Hirt the assessment of European migration policies."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"hr","content":[],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"1 Kagame’s Push for an Effective African Union"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The year 2018 will be a decisive one for the further development of the AU. The organisation’s new chairman, Rwandan president Paul Kagame (elected for one year), is pursuing an ambitious agenda focused on strengthening both the organisation and continental integration more broadly. In his report “The Imperative to Strengthen Our Union,” which he presented in January 2017, Kagame came to the drastic conclusion that “the unfortunate truth is Africa today is ill-prepared to adequately respond to current events” and that the “chronic failure to see through African Union decisions has resulted in a crisis of implementation” (Kagame 2017: 2, 4). The key problems he identified were the AU’s overdependence on donor funding – external funds finance 97 per cent of the AU’s programmes – and a failure to set priorities. “As a result, we have a dysfunctional organisation in which member states see limited value, global partners find little credibility, and our citizens have no trust” (Kagame 2017: 5)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Based on this assessment, Kagame reaffirmed his institutional reform plan at the 30th AU Summit in Addis Ababa in January 2018. Essentially, these reforms would give the AU Commission a stronger role vis-à-vis the member states and would streamline decision-making and the organisational structure – for instance, by fully integrating the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) into the AU Commission and making it the AU development agency, as well as by increasing pressure on member states that do not implement decisions made at the AU level."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$6a"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"A key aspect to watch is therefore the organisation’s peace and security reform, one of the areas where the AU has been most active. The AU is seeking to strengthen funding for its peace activities in order to realise its ambitious goal of “silencing the guns” across the continent by 2020. In 2015, the AU Assembly decided to take financial responsibility for 25 per cent of the cost of peace activities on the African continent by 2020 (excluding the African Union Mission in Somalia, AMISOM). The key instrument for collecting and distributing these funds is the AU Peace Fund. However, initial efforts have seen limited success. According to Donald Kaberuka, high representative for the fund, as of May 2017 only 14 AU member states had made contributions to the fund, accounting for 12 per cent of the USD 65 million target for 2017 (United Nations 2017). It is therefore highly doubtful that the AU payment targets will be met in the near future."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"2 Democracy in Africa: Demands Remain Unmet"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$6b"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"At the same time, the limbo regarding presidential term limits continues. Zambia’s Edgar Lungu is seeking a Constitutional Court ruling that would allow him to vie for a third term in 2021. He has already threatened judges not to obstruct his third-term bid, and further pressure on the judiciary is to be expected. Togo’s incumbent Faure Gnassingbé has opted for a more subtle approach: a presidential term limit without a retroactive clause, which would allow him to stay in power until 2030, is expected to be approved by popular referendum despite increasing protest from the opposition. These developments constitute another setback with respect to term limits in Africa."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In the past, civil society has successfully mobilised against the removal of term limits and other threats to democracy. However, civil society organisations are facing increasing restrictions. These include burdensome registration and reporting obligations; the prohibition of foreign funding; and outright assaults on the freedom of opinion and assembly in countries ranging from Burundi to Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. It seems improbable that this trend will be reversed in 2018, when elections in hybrid or outright authoritarian settings will provide an ideal breeding ground for restrictions on regime-critical actors. Hence, 2018 will be yet another year in which Africans’ demands for democracy will be disappointed."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"3 South Africa’s Turn under President Ramaphosa"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Although South Africa has retained its post-apartheid position as regional hegemon, it is in the midst of a long period of political and economic crisis that is unlikely to end soon. Over the past two decades, the official unemployment rate has hovered around 25 per cent, hitting a 14-year high of 27.7 per cent in 2017. Youth unemployment (15–24 years) has seen only a modest decline from 54.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2016 to still a staggering 52.2 per cent in 2017 (Stats SA 2017). A highly politicised and sensitive matter to watch in South Africa in 2018 is the future of land reform. The topic is of immense symbolic significance due to apartheid policies of race-based land dispossession, and the ANC’s recent push to amend the constitution to allow the state to confiscate land without compensation – if written into law – would come with significant economic risk."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$6c"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"4 Nigeria’s Difficult Pre-Election Year"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Nigeria’s sociopolitical and economic trajectory in 2018 will be defined by the political tension and instability that will inevitably accompany the run-up to the 2019 general elections. Elections in Nigeria are usually characterised by intense struggles among political actors from various societal groups, and sometimes entire communities are dragged into the struggle since elections are seen as the only real opportunity to effect socio-economic and political change. The party primaries will commence in August 2018, followed by the political campaigns in November 2018. Given the increased liberalisation of Nigeria’s media landscape, political campaigns are now more often laced with hate and inflammatory speech. During the 2011 and 2015 general elections, social media was largely misused as a vehicle for spreading false information and inciting violence. This will also likely be the case ahead of the 2019 elections."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$6d"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The pre-election tensions and instability will have profound effects on the Nigerian economy. Experts predict that the economy will record more than 2 per cent growth in 2018, consolidating the recovery that began in 2017. But this growth will be offset by a decline in foreign investment as a result of heightened insecurity and uncertainty regarding government policies. As political tensions increase in advance of the 2019 general elections, attacks on oil and gas facilities in the Niger Delta, the disruption of commercial activities in the south-east, and the destruction of farmlands in the northern regions could all threaten the country’s slow economic recovery. As a pre-election year, 2018 will be a defining one for Nigeria. How the country’s political actors resolve their differences during this time will be vital in determining the prospects for peace and development."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"5 Continued Troubles in the DRC"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$6e"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The opposition holds a similar opinion, and it is supported by the majority of the population. People have taken to the streets to call for elections and Kabila’s resignation. But the political landscape is highly fractionalised – there are 278 political parties registered in the country – and political elites are divided over the question of Kabila’s succession. This division was further aggravated by the death of long-time opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi on 1 February 2017. His son Felix succeeded him as the leader of one of the biggest opposition parties, the Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie (RCD), but this only led to the Rassemblement’s further disintegration."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In addition, violence continues in other parts of the country, such as Tanganyika, North Kivu, and Kasai provinces. In Kasai, a violent armed conflict broke out between the Kamuina Nsapu militia and government forces in 2016. The conflict was fuelled by the lack of acceptance and subsequent killing of the hereditary chief of the Bajila Kasanga chieftaincy (HIIK forthcoming). The violence further escalated in 2017, and while the conflict is currently contained to parts of the Kasai and Kasai Central provinces, a renewed escalation is not unlikely. Given the fact that government forces only control parts of the DRC, and themselves often carry out violence against civilians (Baaz and Stern 2010), we can expect continued armed conflict in different parts of the country."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In the coming months, it can be expected that the government will try to further delay the elections, and that there will be more violent demonstrations by the opposition and the population. In addition, the conflicts in the DRC will further obstruct the state- and institution-building efforts that are so urgently needed in the country. International and bilateral donors can only continue to pressure the government to carry out democratic reforms, although the past has shown that access to resources in the DRC is often more important to international actors than the will of the people."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"6 The Crisis in the CAR: From Bad to Worse"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$6f"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Second, the international peacekeeping mission is increasingly retreating to its bases to avoid becoming involved in everyday security matters and to prevent its own troops from committing sexual abuse. However, it has thereby become not only inefficient in combatting increasing armed group violence, but also increasingly opaque (Lombard 2016). This opaqueness allows rumours regarding its “true” intentions to flourish amongst an aggrieved populace that increasingly sees the peacekeepers as a party to rather than an arbiter of fighting. Demonstrations and even attacks against peacekeepers have risen steeply over the last year. Only a decisive turn towards the deep embeddedness of troops using a clear communication strategy can change this trajectory."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Finally, the democratically elected government has broken with its self-established principle of barring politico-military entrepreneurs from entering political office. Last September, President Touadéra reshuffled both the cabinet and the prefectural appointees and included many armed group representatives and military officials. Whether the co-optation of armed groups and the militarisation of the very weak state in the country’s troubled peripheries will appease tensions remains to be seen. Similar moves on the part of former governments failed to calm rising violence (Käihkö and Utas 2014)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"To counter these escalatory trends, international policymakers need to reduce incentives for violent action, such as allegedly lucrative disarmament packages or government portfolios for rebels. People on the ground most urgently desire credible security and justice provision. Security in the short run must be provided via the deeper involvement of intervening troops, with slow reactions or inaction during attacks on civilians considered a reason to disqualify contingents. Justice should be provided by ensuring the deployment of civil state institutions to the peripheries and the strengthening of non-state justice mechanisms in these areas. Until recently the CAR was seen as a promising case, ready to end its conflict; however, opportunities for conflict resolution were not utilised. This means that in 2018 many changes will need to take place simply to avoid an escalation of violence."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"7 Religious Conflict on the Rise"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"For decades, sub-Saharan Islam and other religious traditions have been relatively politically tolerant and peaceful. However, recent decades have seen a dramatic rise in armed conflicts with religious overtones in sub-Saharan Africa. Many if not most have involved extremist forms of Islam. While war-torn Sudan has long been ruled by Islamists, there are currently three other hotspots of violent Islamist rebellion in sub-Saharan Africa. None are confined to the countries they emerged from, but have instead spilled over to neighbouring countries. They are also at least partially connected through Islamist ideology and international networks headed by Al-Qaida and the Islamic State."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The most long-standing Islamist conflict has been in Somalia. The Al-Shabaab group still controls large parts of the country, and AU peacekeepers have been struggling to defeat them. Unintended side effects of the AU engagement have included terrorist attacks in peacekeeper-sending countries such as Uganda and Kenya. Another Islamist hotspot is the Sahel, with Mali as its epicentre. Since the French-led intervention in early 2013, Islamist rebels have lost control over territory, but attacks have occurred on a regular basis. Neighbouring countries such as Mauritania, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Niger are at risk as well. And while Boko Haram has been on the retreat within Nigeria in recent years, the conflict with the group has spilled over into Chad, Niger, and Cameroon. Terrorist attacks against civilians have recently intensified."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The growing weakness of all these groups in the three hotspots is little reason to rest easy. These groups’ loss of ground in conventional military terms has increased the risk of terrorist attacks – which are easier for the Islamists to stage and signal that they are not yet defeated. Rampant corruption among elites and their failure to provide public goods makes parts of the population vulnerable to radicalisation through divisive ideology. Islamist attacks on Christians in religiously diverse countries – and retaliation for these attacks – are creating a growing risk of interreligious tensions. Almost all countries on the west and east coasts of Africa as well as in north-central sub-Saharan Africa have mixed Christian and Muslim populations and could therefore lapse into violence."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"8 A Bumpy Start to the Official Post-Cotonou Negotiations"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The relationship between the EU and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) Group of States will reach a crossroads in 2020, when the Cotonou Agreement, established in 2000, expires. While the future of ACP–EU relations has already sparked heated debates for a number of years, official negotiations on the “post-Cotonou” partnership are due to start before September 2018. This year will set the tone for the negotiations and provide hints as to whether a substantive agreement that reconfigures the Africa–Europe relationship can be reached by 2020."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"To make this happen, a strong “African position” is needed; this, however, is not visible. A role for the AU in the process might be helpful but is complicated by the potentially divergent views of the different regional economic communities (RECs) and the fact that the AU also represents the non-ACP North African countries. It is our perception that the African debates regarding EU–Africa relations are dominated by the economic issues, in particular the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), which are the trade deals between the EU and Africa. Further, migration ranks high in public and policy debates, as does, to a lesser extent, development cooperation – for example, the German “Marshall Plan.” Clearly, the role of China in Africa also has repercussions for how Africans and African leaders see relationships with Europe."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"On the European side, the European Commission published its recommendation for a renewed Partnership Agreement in December 2017. It advocates an umbrella document – which defines common values, principles, essential elements, and interests and could be extended to non-ACP countries – with three regional pillars that build on existing strategies and define priorities for each region. For Africa, key focus areas would include peace and stability, democracy and good governance, economic and human development, migration, and climate change. The Commission does not appear to envision a major role for the AU in a post-Cotonou agreement."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"This constellation, with little positioning on the African side and the vision of a comprehensive agreement that covers many areas on the European side, makes for dire expectations for the start of the negotiations. Neither the Cotonou Agreement nor the Joint Africa–EU Strategy (JAES) signed in 2007 succeeded in substantially strengthening political cooperation. The prospect of renegotiating the EPAs in the post-Cotonou context would probably increase African interest in the negotiations, particularly on the part of the RECs. However, Brussels has shown very little interest in opening up that avenue, despite some signals from Chancellor Merkel that the EPAs may not be set in stone."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"9 High Expectations: The “Compact with Africa” and the “Marshall Plan”"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The G20 Africa Partnership Conference in June 2017 in Berlin marked the launch of the “Compact with Africa” (CWA) initiative, which aims to increase private and infrastructure investment in Africa. Further, the German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development’s “Marshall Plan with Africa” received a great deal of attention in Africa – probably more because of the unfortunate name than the content. Technicalities aside, the key issue for both initiatives in 2018 will be to maintain the momentum of 2017 and translate words into action. Despite difficult circumstances, there are some signs of progress."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The Argentine presidency of the G20 has not prioritised Africa – even though it promised to follow up on the G20–Africa partnership. The CWA initiative has now been taken up by 10 African countries, up from the initial five. These countries are working with the African Development Bank (AfDB), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to draft investment compacts. Once these compacts are made public we will have initial evidence as to whether the concerted effort of the G20 and the multilateral development banks can actually attract enough interest to mobilise more private and infrastructure investment. This will depend critically on whether the compact initiative is able to align investor interests with the investment needs of African countries: on the one hand, long-term commitment is required for many infrastructure projects; on the other, it may prove difficult to find investors for relatively small and high-risk projects."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Putting the “Marshall Plan with Africa” into practice is part of the recently negotiated CDU/CSU and SPD coalition agreement, but concrete steps can be expected only once the new German government has been formed. The G20 and Germany, in particular, have raised expectations regarding engagement with Africa. In 2018, they will have to prove that they can meet these higher expectations."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"10 European Migration Policy towards Africa Still Stumbling Forward"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$70"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$71"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"\n\n"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["36b45084-b388-402e-81a2-37e0e3b034e7",{"sys":{"id":"36b45084-b388-402e-81a2-37e0e3b034e7","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Shrinking Civic Space in Africa: When Governments Crack Down on Civil Society","path":"/de/publikationen/giga-focus/shrinking-civic-space-africa-when-governments-crack-down-on-civil-society/","dataTeaser":{"date":"4/2018","link":"http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-60564-8","type":"GIGA Focus","tagline":["GIGA Focus Afrika"],"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","personUuids":["0b3c21aa-e4b2-40db-a3f1-15eed36f9b00"]},"dataDetail":{"doi":[],"date":"11.2018","type":"GIGA Focus","isbns":[],"links":[{"url":"https://pure.giga-hamburg.de/ws/files/21580460/gf_africa_1804_en.pdf","title":"Text (PDF-English)"},{"url":"https://pure.giga-hamburg.de/ws/files/21580462/gf_afrika_1804.pdf","title":"Text (PDF-Deutsch)"}],"status":"Veröffentlicht","dateLong":"November 2018","keywords":{"free":[],"structured":[]},"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"roleMaps":[{"role":{"key":"author","value":"Autor:in"},"uuids":["0b3c21aa-e4b2-40db-a3f1-15eed36f9b00"]}],"subtitle":"2018 | ISSN: 1862-3603","urnLinks":["http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-60564-8"],"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","dateShort":"2018","publisher":"German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)","unitUuids":["df8790e3-3952-4f8c-961e-13a5821d6550","af15c86e-7314-4c67-9b3d-5decc373818b"],"seriesIssn":["1862-3603"],"personNames":["Hannah Smidt"],"personUuids":["0b3c21aa-e4b2-40db-a3f1-15eed36f9b00"],"seriesTitle":["GIGA Focus Afrika"],"seriesNumber":["4"],"seriesVolume":[],"isForthcoming":false,"useDynamicPdf":false,"publicationLocation":"Hamburg","relatedProjectUuids":["02740f7e-3857-427b-b1ca-bac41774a117"],"managingOrganisationalUnitUuid":"a65daf31-e463-438f-9891-d1c1e8ad18e4","abstractSnippet":"Immer mehr Regierungen in Subsahara-Afrika kontrollieren zivilgesellschaftliche Gruppen, die sich für Menschenrechte einsetzen. 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Wenn die Produktivität in den durch das Militär kontrollierten Bereichen höher ist als im Rest der Industrie, kann es durch sogenannte Spin-Off-Effekte und Skill-Transfers über technische Innovation zu ökonomischer Modernisierung kommen. Andererseits führt die Priorisierung von staatlichen Ausgaben für das Militär häufig zu geringeren Ausgaben für Bildung, Gesundheit und soziale Absicherung. \r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In Ägypten ist das Militär ein einflussreicher Akteur innerhalb der Ökonomie und im Bereich der Infrastrukturentwicklung. Vor dem Hintergrund seiner bisherigen wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten baute das Militär unter Präsident Sisi seine unternehmerischen Aktivitäten weiter aus. Es arbeitet inzwischen sogar mit ausländischen Firmen zusammen (Al-Masry Al-Youm 2020). Inzwischen produziert das ägyptische Militär Solarpanele, Chemikalien, Schaltkreise für Computer und Automobile (Al-Masry Al-Youm 2020). Das Ministerium für Militärproduktion erwähnt darüber hinaus Produkte für den zivilen Markt, die von kleinen Haushaltsartikeln bis hin zu Maschinen für die Industrieproduktion reichen. \r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Im Zuge der anhaltenden Arbeitslosigkeit, die sich aktuell zusätzlich durch die COVID-19-Pandemie zuspitzt, erscheint das Militär als vergleichsweise verlässlicher Arbeitgeber, der in der Lage ist, Pensionszahlungen und Wohlfahrtsleistungen zu gewähren. Das ist derzeit besonders attraktiv, weil sich die Regierung aufgrund sinkender Steuereinnahmen und dem Kollaps des Tourismussektors derzeit außerstande sieht, solche Zahlungen zu leisten (World Bank 2020). 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Zudem verbleiben junge Männer auch nach Ablauf der Wehrpflicht beim Militär, womit sich seine sozioökonomische Bedeutung und die ihm zur Verfügung stehende Anzahl an Arbeitskräften erhöht. \r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$72"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Infrastruktureller Wandel: zwischen Megaprojekten und Abriss\r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$73"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$74"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$75"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Durch das Versprechen für die Zukunft und die Hoffnung auf wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung, rücken die akuten Bedürfnisse nach Wohnraum und die aktuelle Krise schnell in den Hintergrund. Diese Probleme zu übersehen, zieht weitere negative Konsequenzen nach sich. Das rasante Bevölkerungswachstum verleiht der Nachfrage nach neuem Wohnraum eine nie dagewesene Bedeutung. Eine Situation, die das Militär kontinuierlich in die Politik treibt. Andererseits sind die politischen Auswirkungen der vom Militär implementierten Megaprojekte höchst ambivalent; die Umsetzung von Mega-Projekten sichert kurzfristig Legitimität durch Symbolkraft und höhlt gleichzeitig langfristig diese Legitimität aus, weil die akuten Belange der Ägypterinnen und Ägypter vernachlässigt werden. 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Fast ebenso häufig sind sie Gegenstand von Manipulationsvorwürfen, die zu lang andauernden politischen Konflikten führen können. Auf Gerichten lastet vielfach die Hoffnung, dass sie durch die unabhängige Verhandlung von Wahldisputen zu freien und fairen Wahlen beitragen können. In der Realität ist es für Gerichte jedoch schwierig diese Erwartungen zu erfüllen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-3","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Gerichte brauchen Stärkung für ihre wichtige Aufgabe in Wahlprozessen. Programme zur Wahlunterstützung sollten Bausteine zur Wahlrechtsprechung enthalten, in denen Richter, Kandidaten, Wahlkommissionen und Wähler geschult werden. 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Dennoch ist seit 1990 eine Zunahme demokratischer Machtwechsel zu verzeichnen. Wo Institutionen allein zu schwach sind, um politischen Pluralismus sicherzustellen, haben zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen eine wichtige Vorbild- und Kontrollfunktion."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Selbst autoritäre Regime halten Wahlen ab, um sich einen demokratischen Anstrich zu geben. Externe Akteure sollten daher auf die Einhaltung von Amtszeitbeschränkungen drängen und unabhängige Wahlkommissionen finanziell und technisch unterstützen. 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In addition there will be parliamentary elections in Ethiopia, a parliamentary system in which the prime minister is head of the executive. All nine presidential countries have in common that their constitutions prescribe a presidential term limit. Most African countries introduced such term limits in the early 1990s as a check to presidential power, but since the later years of that decade incumbents have frequently contested them."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$77"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In all of these cases, it seems to be the president and his political allies rather than the constitutional rules that decide whether it is time to step down or not. However, this year’s sample of term-limit contests does not tell the whole story. In countries like Cabo Verde, Ghana, or Tanzania, politicians have constantly respected the term limit and at least two incumbents have obeyed and left power in due course since 1990."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The 2020 Presidential Elections in Guinea: An Ethnic Powder Keg?"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In Guinea, 81-year-old president Condé has refused to rule out his candidacy in the 2020 presidential elections, despite a constitutional term limit to that effect. In September 2019, he asked his government to look into drafting a new constitution (Africanews 2019). Legislative elections, originally scheduled for January 2019, have been postponed at least until February 2020. The 2020 elections will take place in a deeply divided country. Guinea’s political forces represent the country’s two dominant ethnic communities. Condé is Malinké (Mandinka) and opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo is Peulh (Fulani)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In Guinea, the widespread public belief holds that whoever wins will use – and, if necessary, abuse – the powers of the presidency for near-absolute control over the political system, to create advantages for their own ethnic group. Thus the stakes are high, especially for the Peulh – who have never held the presidency. Militants from both political camps are willing to take protests to the streets, as bloody clashes during the 2010 and 2015 elections have shown. Condé’s government has responded to protests with increasing repression and the intimidation of journalists. According to Amnesty International (2019), at least 70 protesters and bystanders have been killed since 2015 while 109 citizens have died in custody. In 2020, political polarisation will be higher than ever. Condé still wants to hold a constitutional referendum even in spite of mass demonstrations against his grip on power in the last few months."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The 2020 Elections in Ethiopia: Political Reforms under Severe Stress"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In December 2019, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for breaking the stalemate with Eritrea and advancing political reforms in his country, including the liberalisation of the political space and the improvement of human rights. Following his election as prime minister in April 2018, Abiy loosened the iron grip of his predecessors on the press, the political opposition, and on civil society. His aim is to allow peaceful competition between parties in the upcoming national elections, which are scheduled for May 2020. He is also planning to restructure the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) ruling coalition, which has governed the country since 1991 and currently holds all 100 per cent of the parliamentary seats. Abiy’s objective is to merge the ethnic-based coalition EPRDF into the Ethiopian Prosperity Party in the face of resistance from its founder, the once-dominant Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$78"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The 2020 Elections in Burundi: A Risk for the Entire Sub-Region?"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The report by the United Nations Commission of Inquiry on Burundi states that “the 2020 elections pose a major risk [to the country]” (2019: 18). According to the report, common risk factors for atrocities – including severe political and economic instability, the weakness of state structures, the political activism of potential perpetrators of violence, as well as the lack of a viable presence of civil society or international actors – can all be observed in the country. This is not only alarming for the 11 million Burundians, but also for the already-fragile Great Lakes region as a whole."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The controversial 2015 elections in Burundi highlighted the repercussions of domestic political turmoil for its neighbouring countries in pointed terms. Following a third-term bid and a failed coup to prevent his renewed candidacy, president Nkurunziza was re-elected amid violent unrest. More than 400,000 people fled to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, and Rwanda. The camps in the first two countries are among the least funded worldwide (UNHCR 2020), constituting a significant challenge for the hosts. Burundian rebel groups, which emerged after the failed coup d’état, are operating out of the DRC. This has repeatedly led to deadly border clashes with Burundian forces. Moreover, severe tensions arose between Burundi and Rwanda in the aftermath of the elections over alleged interferences in domestic politics on both sides. In such a precarious regional constellation, electoral turmoil in Burundi would have implications beyond this small African country itself."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$79"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Haunted by the Past: Côte d’Ivoire’s 2020 Presidential Election"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$7a"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Despite stating that it was time to relinquish power, Ouattara seems intent on controlling the electoral process. In order to reduce the number of candidates, he has proposed the introduction of a sponsorship system and a deposit of CFA franc 200 million (approximately EUR 300,000). Claiming that a 2016 constitution change would allow him to stand again, the incumbent has opposed the introduction of an age limit that would bar all members of his generation from standing. As for the younger generation, former rebel leader turned prime minister turned popular presidential candidate Guillaume Soro would have his own ambitions derailed in late 2019. A timely arrest warrant was issued upon his scheduled return to Côte d’Ivoire on charges of destabilisation and embezzlement of public funds, thus preventing him from entering the country."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Divisions within the population run partly along the ethnic and cultural North–South divide, but also concern the country’s relationship with France. Anti-French sentiments run deep after decades of economic domination and repeated military interventions by the former colonial power. Ouattara, who was able to assume his presidency after French forces had helped capture Gbagbo, has pursued an agenda of economic liberalism and maintains a close relationship with the European country. During a state visit to Abidjan in December 2019, President Emmanuel Macron briefly pointed to the importance of respecting term limits – but also allowed Ouattara to shine while announcing the end of the unpopular CFA franc (see the section on West Africa’s new currency). It is this close relationship that has fuelled fears of a backlash against French citizens and businesses, as well as their Ivoirian allies. Ouattara’s next steps will determine the intensity of the confrontation."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Elections in Burkina Faso: Between Hope and Trepidation"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$7b"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$7c"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Jihadism: The Most Virulent Threat to Peace and Security"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Explosive elections are often closely related to other underlying conflicts. Côte d’Ivoire is still recovering from an armed conflict that continues to overshadow its political development. Reformers such as Ethiopia’s Abiy face stiff resistance inside and outside elections, as members of his own ethnic group are mounting increasingly aggressive protests against him. Uncertainty on the succession of long-standing presidents form an additional conflict risk. A case in point is Cameroon with President Paul Biya, where the conflict over the secession attempt of the Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia has lingered on. Being in his mid-eighties, Biya lacks an apparent heir; regional and international actors should work on resolving the crisis now. In addition to the ever-present personal power struggles, dissatisfaction with governments over lacking public goods and corruption, demographic changes, and conflicts between ethnic and religious groups contribute to the latent conflict potential in many African countries."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Jihadist violence has emerged as one of the biggest threats to security in multiple parts of Africa. Recent escalations in Somalia, Burkina Faso, and Mali are a reminder of the virulence of the problem. Three hotspots of jihadism persist, and have strong potential for spillover: Somalia in the Horn of Africa, Nigeria in West and Central Africa, as well as the Western Sahel, with, as noted, strong escalation in Burkina Faso and central Mali over the past year. Largely unknown to the international public, Mozambique has been also increasingly affected by a jihadist uprising, while in the eastern DRC the ADF rebel group recently pledged allegiance to Islamic State."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$7d"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Trade Wars and Africa: Weakness Turned into Opportunity"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The trade wars between the United States and the rest of world, most notably China, have negative effects on trade flows between and economic growth within the quarrelling countries. Africa will only be indirectly affected, mainly through decreased demand for raw materials in an economic downturn (partly) resulting from these trade wars. The International Monetary Fund (2019) therefore estimates that resource-intensive countries will grow at only 2.5 per cent compared to 6 per cent for non-resource-intensive ones. The negative impacts will thus be most severe in those countries most reliant on raw materials, and on US or Chinese markets. Sudan, exporting its oil almost exclusively to China, is a case in point."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$7e"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Implementing the Eco: West Africa’s Common Currency Project"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$7f"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$80"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Legal Winds of Change: Combatting Gender Inequity and Discrimination"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Property rights and inheritance rules are contentious political issues, particularly so in Africa. We have seen governments dissolve over reforms of family and inheritance laws in the past, including in Côte d’Ivoire. The country is now on the verge of passing a new marriage law. The bill, approved by the Council of Ministers in March 2019 and part of a larger government plan, would provide a legal framework to substantially improve gender equity: Both spouses would get equal rights in deciding how to manage marital property, and women’s rights would be secured when it comes to inheritance – an aspect still undermined by customary practices in many African countries. Parliament still has to pass the bill, which is already being seen as a benchmark for other countries of the continent themselves currently discussing reforms of marriage and property rights. Zimbabwe is a case in point."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"While such reforms address important gender inequities by advancing women’s rights, major gaps in marriage law remain. For example, the new legislation in Côte d’Ivoire applies only to formal marriage but not to marriages under customary arrangements or to cohabitation; it does not provide sufficient provisions to tackle child marriage; and, it explicitly prohibits same-sex marriage. Laws outlawing same-sex relations remain widespread in Africa. They exist in 31 out of the 54 African countries (including North Africa), with some still upholding the death penalty in such cases. However, there are also some positive developments; Botswana might be leading the way here. In June 2019, the country’s High Court ruled in favour of decriminalising homosexuality and rejected laws imposing prison sentences for same-sex relationships, stating they were unconstitutional. The landmark ruling overturned a law which had been in place since 1965, when it was brought in by the British colonial government."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Similarly, some countries have started to tackle child marriage – which remains common practice in many African countries. Despite provisions within some legal frameworks, it is de facto legalised in most (39) countries on the continent. Mozambique, which is among the top-ten countries in terms of the prevalence of child marriage, has now started to address the issue head on. The country recently passed a law that criminalises the practice, now being punishable with a prison sentence of up to 12 years. The law is the latest amendment to a set of reforms in the country designed to end discrimination against girls and empower children."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["3xxBDTWJDSlNcRec0feH7X",{"sys":{"id":"3xxBDTWJDSlNcRec0feH7X","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Literatur GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"headline":"Literatur","contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"nodeType":"unordered-list"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["401511d9-16d0-4b67-9c77-dafec8a7677c",{"sys":{"id":"401511d9-16d0-4b67-9c77-dafec8a7677c","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Why the Release of Political Prisoners in Nicaragua does not mean the Dictator is Softening his Tone","path":"/de/publikationen/beitraege/release-political-prisoners-nicaragua-dictator-softening-tone/","dataTeaser":{"date":"03.2023","link":"https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2023/03/16/nicaragua-dictator-is-not-softening-his-tone/","type":"Blogbeitrag","tagline":["Blogbeitrag"],"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/othercontribution/blog_article","value":"Blogbeitrag"},"blueprint":"PUBLICATION","teaserText":"After the release of 222 political prisoners in Nicaragua, Désirée Reder contextualises this event in the context of the regime’s repressive path since 2018. 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Politische, ökonomische und Sicherheitsinteressen sind miteinander verflochten. Oppositionelle Kräfte prangern ihre nationalen Regierungen an und diese reagieren wiederum mit enormer Repression. Der Aufruhr in Zentralafrika wird in nächster Zeit nicht abebben. Im Gegenteil, anstehende Wahlen und bewaffnete Konflikte deuten auf eine zunehmende Eskalation hin. Umso wichtiger wird es, die Proteste zu verstehen, sie in ihren politischen Kontext einzubetten und Lösungsansätze aufzuzeigen. In dieser Analyse untersuche ich daher nationale Besonderheiten der Protestbewegungen und regionale Gemeinsamkeiten."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Proteste der anglophonen Region in Kamerun und jene der oppositionellen Kräfte der DRK stehen aufgrund der Größe und Relevanz der beiden Länder am stärksten im Fokus der Weltöffentlichkeit. Nicht weniger relevant sind jedoch spontane Proteste gegen die VN-Mission in der ZAR, welche sich mit der allgemeinen Bürgerkriegsgemengelage vermischen. Im Tschad und der Republik Kongo werden die jüngsten politischen und ökonomischen Proteste massiv unterdrückt und wurden somit (noch!) relativ klein gehalten. 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Die mittlere Grafik zeigt, dass Staaten mit Power-Sharing-Regierungen und hohen Einnahmen aus der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit weniger unabhängige Gerichte haben. Die Koeffizienten sind genau reziprok zur linken Grafik: Die Modellschätzungen zeigen, dass der Indexwert für Rechtsstaatlichkeit in Power-Sharing-Regierungen mit ca. 30 Prozent ODA-Einnahmen nur ungefähr halb so hoch ist wie für Machtteilungsstaaten mit weit geringeren Einnahmen aus der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (repräsentiert durch den linken/blauen Koeffizienten)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Ein ähnliches Bild bietet sich für die Bereitstellung öffentlicher Güter in der rechten Grafik. Der rote/rechte Koeffizient in Nachkriegsstaaten mit Machtteilungsregierungen ist kleiner, wenn umfangreiche ODA-Mittel das Land erreichen, als wenn nur geringe Mittel fließen (der blaue/linke Koeffizient). 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Die Gründe sind vielfältig und reichen von begrenzter oder kollabierender Staatlichkeit (Zartman 1995), Bürgerkrieg und niedrigen Entwicklungsniveaus bis zum Interesse, Zugriff auf die reichen Bodenschätze des Kontinents zu erlangen. Vor allem seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges bemühen sich westliche Akteure verstärkt um die Förderung demokratischer Bewegungen in Afrika."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Welche Auswirkungen haben diese Interventionen? Nehmen Bürger in afrikanischen Staaten, die das Ziel externen Drucks in der Form von Demokratie-Sanktionen und in einigen Fällen von UN-Missionen zur Friedenssicherung waren, Demokratie anders wahr als Bürger in Staaten ohne diese Erfahrungen? Zur besseren Differenzierung zwischen den Regierungsformen wird hier auf die – zugegeben grobe – Kategorisierung von Freedom House zurückgegriffen, die zwischen „freien“, „teilweise freien“ und „nicht freien“ Staaten unterscheidet. Im Freedom House Report 2016 sind Demokratien in Subsahara-Afrika in der Minderheit (Freedom House 2016). Von den 49 anerkannten unabhängigen Staaten fallen 20 in die Kategorie „nicht frei“ und 20 in die Kategorie „teilweise frei“; nur neun werden als „frei“, also vollständig demokratisch, angesehen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Wie Grafik 1 zeigt, gibt es kaum Unterschiede in der Unterstützung von Demokratie zwischen (a) den genannten Ländergruppen („frei“, „teilweise frei“, „nicht frei“) und (b) den Ländern, in denen Erfahrungen mit externen Interventionen gemacht wurden. Bürger in afrikanischen Staaten, die seit 1990 das Ziel von Interventionen waren, nehmen Demokratie nicht grundsätzlich anders wahr als die Einwohner in Staaten ohne diese Erfahrung. Hierbei gilt es jedoch hervorzuheben, dass Afrobarometer-Umfragen nur in sieben der 20 Staaten durchgeführt werden konnten, die aktuell als „nicht frei“ eingestuft werden – in fünf dieser Staaten gab es externe Interventionen beziehungsweise Sanktionen (Äthiopien, Burundi, Kamerun, Sudan, Uganda). Dagegen wurden in allen neun als „frei“ klassifizierten Staaten und in 17 von 20 „teilweise freien“ Ländern Befragungen durchgeführt."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["4rHXywaLhnv6qvUbSL63QH",{"sys":{"id":"4rHXywaLhnv6qvUbSL63QH","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"columnContent"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Lektorat GIGA Focus Nahost James","headline":"Lektorat GIGA Focus Nahost","showHeadlineLeft":true,"backgroundColour":"White","columnCount":3,"topics":[{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"Entry","id":"f888036a-4820-4e7e-8152-b693e35b48f7"}},{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"Entry","id":"14d46366-0dd9-4bcd-a5b3-70778f71d6ca"}}]}}],["4rTbPqYYej1bEQbDDssYLs",{"sys":{"id":"4rTbPqYYej1bEQbDDssYLs","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"footnote"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"FocusAfrika-2017-07_Footnote1","content":{"data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Grundlage der Berechnung sind die 54 Staaten des gesamten afrikanischen Kontinents inklusive der Maghreb-Staaten.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}],"nodeType":"document"}}}],["4rwhaWqt3uhx4coJ1df1rb",{"sys":{"id":"4rwhaWqt3uhx4coJ1df1rb","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Global 2021_02_2","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The right-hand graph in Figure 1 shows a coherent trend across all four regions of declining diagonal constraints. In terms of vertical and horizontal constraints, meanwhile, there are considerable regional differences. The countries in LAC started out with the strongest limitations on executive power but saw a marked decline in all three dimensions. The developments in Asia-Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa are less pronounced. Vertical and horizontal limits on executive power were, on average, strengthened across the Asia-Pacific region, while sub-Saharan Africa saw a net decline in the vertical and a slight net increase in the horizontal dimension.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The MENA saw the most drastic changes, and the graphs clearly show the impact of the political liberalisation in many of the region’s countries during the 2010/11 Arab Uprisings and the subsequent return of authoritarianism across all three dimensions. While vertical and horizontal limitations on chief executives’ power have net increased in the MENA region if we compare the pre-Arab Spring period with the situation in 2019, the downwards trend is clear. Given these regional patterns, it is worthwhile to discuss whether and how chief executives in LAC and the MENA – the regions with the highest and lowest overall degree of executive constraints as well as with the most pronounced changes, respectively – used the window of opportunity that the COVID-19 pandemic provided to further increase their discretionary power.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Executive Personalisation in LAC and MENA","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"By the time the current pandemic began, LAC and the MENA had already seen considerable erosions in the constraints on executive power. Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggests that the pandemic indeed constituted a convenient moment for chief executives to further personalise their power in at least some cases. Evidence from Brazil, Egypt, Israel, and Mexico shows how subtle and diverse these changes in the discretionary power of presidents and prime ministers have been.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Executive Personalisation in LAC","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In Mexico, as in other LAC countries, people were angry with inadequate national responses to inequality, poverty, insecurity, corruption, poor state performance, and other governance failures. In 2018, voters had brought Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) to the presidency: a seasoned left-wing politician who staged himself as an anti-establishment figure. AMLO’s project was personalistic from the outset. He won by a landslide, promising a complete rupture with the established order – which he characterised as one of moral decline. His task was to “put the poor first,” and to rid the state of fraud and corruption. He ran under the banner of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), the party he had created in 2014 from other parties and unorganised popular constituencies. MORENA obtained control of the federal congress and several governorships, but remained dependent on AMLO’s charismatic leadership, thus indicating weak legislative constraints on the chief executive.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In his fight against corruption, AMLO claimed “republican austerity” and aggressively cut state budgets – which included massive lay-offs of public-health personnel and the dismantling of traditional social programmes. Discarding old institutions did not mean engaging in institution-building however, but a tight centralisation of expenditure to the presidency and the erection of parallel structures under the latter’s authority – such as the coordination of social plans and other programmes, and the appointment of presidential delegates to the federal states (Sánchez Talanquer 2020). While the state shrank and centralised, the armed forces increased their own power. They did so in an unprecedented manner and well beyond their already-extensive previous role, for instance by expanding their participation in internal-security tasks after the dissolution of the Federal Police, as well as in other political and economic matters (Pérez Correa 2020).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"When the pandemic hit Mexico, the chronically deficient public-healthcare system was suffering under a severe cost-cutting scheme, the administration was being centralised, and national security was becoming increasingly militarised. The left-wing president did not change his stance much while facing the hardships of the pandemic. His reluctance to spend money surprised everyone, including the International Monetary Fund, which recommended to increase social outputs. From the start, AMLO followed a vague and incoherent ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"laissez-faire ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"approach to the crisis, avoiding committing to social-distancing measures. When the president caught COVID-19 in January 2021, by when Mexico had reached third place globally in absolute numbers of deaths, AMLO continued appealing to people’s faith and personal strength as remedies. While in quarantine, he stated that worse than the pandemic was “the plague of corruption.” Corresponding to his direct appeal to the people and the political needs of his party in an electoral year, he has personally promoted vaccination. Yet the government’s vaccination scheme has, as with AMLO’s other social programmes, been criticised for its unconventional and personalistic design, raising concerns of its potentially clientelist use in an electoral year – when the president should instead be rendered accountable. AMLO had only a mild version of COVID-19 as it happened, yet his temporary separation from the tasks of government still highlighted the uncertainty and fragility embedded in a strongly personalist project.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro – a former army captain, long-term backbencher in the Brazilian Congress, and open defender of past dictatorships and far-right values – won the presidency in 2018. As with AMLO in Mexico, Bolsonaro promised to crush political corruption and crime. He would also renew Brazilian politics by undoing the left’s legacies inherited from the Workers’ Party presidencies. Once in power he left his own small party and refused to form a coalition to work with Congress, recruiting mainly technocrats, military officers, and radical politicians to executive positions. Sometimes referred to as “the tropical Trump,” Bolsonaro’s negationist and anti-scientific approach to the pandemic has repeatedly made international headlines. He initially faced it by deepening social polarisation and using incendiary rhetoric against democratic institutions – Congress, the judiciary, local governments – that contradicted his views (Bülow und Llanos 2020).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$88","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In January 2021, a death toll exceeding 212,000 people and a succession of scandals – such as the shortage of oxygen and a consequent surge of deaths in Manaus – closely pointed to the president’s and his ministers’ errors. Revived calls for impeachment prompted Bolsonaro to tighten his leverage in Congress by securing the presidencies of the two chambers, which he managed with generous handing out of pork funds and ministerial positions, in open contradiction of his anti-political electoral promises. This move may protect the president’s agenda, while reducing horizontal controls on his performance. In parallel, the recent launch of the vaccination process – being in the hands of the governor of São Paulo, a political rival of the president – may dissipate urgent concerns about the pandemic and further help the president to survive politically.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Executive Personalisation in the MENA","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In Egypt, notions of personalisation would be key features of regime consolidation after the Arab Uprisings as part of a military dictatorship with Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as the president at its helm. After the abdication of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 due to widespread mass protest, the country was formally ruled by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) until Mohamed Morsi, an Islamist leader and former member of the Muslim Brotherhood, became Egypt’s first freely elected president in June 2012. Within a year, however, Morsi was ousted by the military. Followed by another period of SCAF rule and after a period of unprecedented state repression and violence, in June 2014 the new strong man, Sisi, became the current president.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$89","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In May 2020, in a more enduring formal change, the Egyptian Emergency Law was amended. Officially justified as a way to improve the effectiveness of public-health management, only 5 of the 18 amendments were actually tied to health issues. The rest provided the president with new tools to expand his power, for instance by allowing him to restrict all public protest and gatherings, to control the prices of goods and services, and to broaden the jurisdiction of military courts by ordering military prosecution if any of the law’s provisions are violated (Human Rights Watch 2020). In July 2020, the Armed Forces Officers’ Service and Promotion Law was amended, stipulating that all military personnel who want to run for election at any level need SCAF approval (AFP 2020). The latter is a superordinate military institution headed by Sisi that has ruled twice within the last 10 years after the demise of Presidents Mubarak and Morsi.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Israel is the only country in the MENA with regular, fair, and free elections. Yet the country has seen an incremental enhancement of the chief executive’s power already since the 1980s (Balmas et al. 2014). This process reached its peak during the late 1990s, a period in which Israel experimented with the direct election of its prime minister (notwithstanding its unique parliamentary system). This attempt was terminated in the early years of the new century since none of the expected stabilisation could be achieved – that due to the pertinacious fragmentation of Israel’s party system. In 2001, Israel therefore returned to a system through which the prime minister, as chief executive, is elected indirectly by the country’s parliament, the Knesset.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$8a","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In parallel, Israel was hit by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Netanyahu as acting prime minister issued a series of executive orders at that time which prevented the newly elected parliament from convening and also shutdown courts. “Likewise, the courts shutdown also was approved in the middle of the night by Netanyahu’s hand-picked justice minister, just a day before the prime minister’s criminal trial was to begin. The decree, citing the coronavirus, postponed the trial until May” (Heller 2020). This gave Netanyahu time to finish a power-sharing deal with his main opponent Benny Gantz – leader of the center-left “Blue and White” alliance – a few weeks later in April. With that, Netanyahu – who is the long-term leader of the right-wing Likud party – not only managed to divide the Blue and White alliance in the Knesset but also gained control over the appointment of Supreme Court judges – as well as a right to veto the appointments of the next attorney general and the head of the prosecution too.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"This power-sharing deal would have been unimaginable without the pandemic, as Gantz only agreed to it to keep Israel governable during the deepening COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the deal allowed Netanyahu to extend his premiership into a 12th consecutive year and granted him the necessary leverage to influence any final legal verdict against him. However, the Israeli version of executive personalisation during the pandemic is still ongoing, as the current coalition broke down in December 2020 and new parliamentary elections have been scheduled to take place on 23 March 2021. As a recent report by the newspaper ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Haaretz","nodeType":"text"},{"value":" indicates, Netanyahu has already started manoeuvres to delay the evidentiary sessions of the court trial until after the next elections. Should he win, his supporters within the Knesset could pass a new law granting him immunity until the end of his time in office and even allowing him to influence who will become the next Israeli president – a person who eventually could pardon him if necessary (Levinson 2021).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Consequences and Policy Implications","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The chief executives in the four examples given have tested the limits of power well beyond their rhetorical attacks on opposing actors and institutions during the current pandemic. Mexico’s and Brazil’s presidents have become famous for their inaction in the fight against COVID-19. However they have been actually quite active and skillful in the use of their vast executive powers to circumvent established bureaucracies and political opponents. Where they faced horizontal constitutional constraints, AMLO and Bolsonaro found ways to circumvent them to get what they wanted. The policy consequences of these manoeuvres have been severe – as health and economic indicators show – in the short run. They may be even more negative in the medium- to long term – particularly, through the active involvement of the military in political affairs.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$8b","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In Israel, executive personalisation was neither caused by, nor did it lead to, institutional change or the formal abolition of horizontal constraints. Nonetheless, Netanyahu masterfully exploited existing institutional weaknesses and utilised the discretionary power of his office to effectively shield himself from legal prosecution. The pandemic was an asset in this as it forced other political actors such as Gantz to play along so as to ensure the government’s effectiveness in light of a national health crisis. These findings reiterate that the personalisation of executive power and the erosion of constraints are nothing new, and certainly not the result of the global coronavirus crisis; the pandemic has provided a new opportunity for executive aggrandisement, however.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In terms of future prospects, we do not expect significant change in the short- to medium term. In light of slow vaccination rates – Israel being a rare counterexample – and the emergence of more infectious variants of the virus, the exceptional situation which grants chief executives the window of opportunity for expanding their discretionary power is likely to be with us for some time. In 2021, elections are scheduled to take place in Israel and Mexico, which provides a chance for voters to hold the chief executive accountable – both in terms of personalising executive power and on their record in fighting the pandemic. However, as not only the examples of AMLO and Netanyahu show, chief executives have been able to use COVID-19-related measures – including vaccination – for electoral gain.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$8c","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["4yZHfR4gJhbw9BOfPZRxKd",{"sys":{"id":"4yZHfR4gJhbw9BOfPZRxKd","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_4","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$8d"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$8e"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["50H1Q88tGuXMJGbs3i1z6S",{"sys":{"id":"50H1Q88tGuXMJGbs3i1z6S","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Global 2021_02_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die COVID-19-Pandemie hat weltweit nicht nur zu schwerwiegenden Folgen für die Gesundheitssysteme geführt. Politisch ist darüber hinaus eine Machtkonzentration in der Exekutive zu konstatieren. Im Verlauf des letzten Jahres hat es in allen Weltregionen Anzeichen einer Personalisierung von Exekutivmacht gegeben.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"nodeType":"unordered-list"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Fazit","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Der seit längerem zu beobachtende Trend einer Personalisierung von Exekutivmacht hat im Verlauf der COVID-19-Pandemie neue Wendungen genommen. Auch wenn diese Entwicklung nicht zwangsläufig in einen grundsätzlichen Regimewandel münden muss, kann sie mittel- bis\nlangfristig zu negativen politischen Auswirkungen führen. Europäische und deutsche Entscheidungsträgerinnen und Entscheidungsträger sollten deswegen ihre bestehenden Beobachtungsinstrumente überarbeiten, um auf die potenziellen politischen Nebenwirkungen der Pandemie reagieren zu können.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["510wU4PPlAysmh2CVmNwkU",{"sys":{"id":"510wU4PPlAysmh2CVmNwkU","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Tabelle Focus Afrika 2019_02_1","title":"Tabelle Focus Afrika 2019_02_1","altText":"Tabelle mit Kerndaten der sozioökonomischen und politischen Entwicklung in Afrika.","copyright":"(a) UNDP 2019.\n(b) World Bank 2019.\n(c) Basedau und Mappes 2015; ergänzt durch UCDP für 2017 (Pettersson und Eck 2018).\n(d) Eigene Berechnungen auf Grundlage von Bleck und van de Walle 2018; der Anteil von 92 Prozent gg. 94 Prozent für die Jahre 2018 und 2010 ergibt sich durch die Unabhängigkeit von Südsudan, der bislang keine Wahlen durchgeführt hat.\n(e) Eigene Berechnungen nach African Leadership Change Project 2019 (ISPI 2019); Zahlen beziehen sich jeweils auf das vorherige Jahrzehnt; 1990 bezieht sich auf 1980-1989; der letzte Zeitraum ist verkürzt von 2000-2017.\n(f) Interparliamentary Union 2018.","caption":"Tab. 1\nKerndaten der sozioökonomischen und politischen Entwicklung in Afrika seit dem Jahr 1990","media":{"sys":{"id":"1g8mxKlltz7iGOAMBFLBSn","type":"Asset"},"title":"Tabelle Focus Afrika 2019_02_1","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/1g8mxKlltz7iGOAMBFLBSn/4bd996abf11819c7126c5f482396f128/Tab1-Focus-Afrika-2019-02-web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["51ea2372-6580-4359-a7d6-774a8c37c10f",{"sys":{"id":"51ea2372-6580-4359-a7d6-774a8c37c10f","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Mosambik: Mehr Zeit für den Präsidenten?","path":"/de/publikationen/giga-focus/mosambik-mehr-zeit-fuer-den-praesidenten/","dataTeaser":{"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"type":"GIGA Focus","date":"12/2011","personUuids":["9b073161-e18e-4312-a4fb-304012a6efe7","323c159a-04e5-4678-9bc5-eee250d3291d"],"tagline":["GIGA Focus Afrika"],"link":"http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-461310"},"dataDetail":{"doi":[],"date":"2011","type":"GIGA Focus","isbns":[],"links":[{"url":"https://pure.giga-hamburg.de/ws/files/24533073/gf_afrika_1112.pdf","title":"Text (pdf Deutsch)"}],"status":"Veröffentlicht","dateLong":"2011","pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"roleMaps":[{"role":{"key":"author","value":"Autor:in"},"uuids":["9b073161-e18e-4312-a4fb-304012a6efe7","323c159a-04e5-4678-9bc5-eee250d3291d"]}],"subtitle":"2011 | ISSN: 1862-3603","urnLinks":["http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-461310"],"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","dateShort":"2011","publisher":"German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)","unitUuids":["df8790e3-3952-4f8c-961e-13a5821d6550","b3ddc657-9933-454b-8b17-869d513f723e"],"seriesIssn":["1862-3603"],"personNames":["Charlotte Heyl","Henrik Maihack"],"personUuids":["9b073161-e18e-4312-a4fb-304012a6efe7","323c159a-04e5-4678-9bc5-eee250d3291d"],"seriesTitle":["GIGA Focus Afrika"],"seriesNumber":["12"],"seriesVolume":[],"isForthcoming":false,"useDynamicPdf":false,"publicationLocation":"Hamburg","managingOrganisationalUnitUuid":"a65daf31-e463-438f-9891-d1c1e8ad18e4","abstractSnippet":"In Mosambik arbeitet derzeit eine parlamentarische Kommission an einer Verfassungsreform. 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Die katastrophalen Zustände werden für massive Migrationsbewegungen in der Gegenwart und Zukunft verantwortlich gemacht. 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Gleichzeitig hat sich jedoch die Gestalt der Sicherheitsbedrohungen gewandelt. 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Demokratieförderung und politische Konditionalitäten in der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit sind daher zentraler Bestandteil der internationalen Unterstützung von Friedensprozessen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Der Fokus internationaler Geber auf Wahlen kann autokratische Elemente in Nachkriegsstaaten stärken. Langfristig werden so Stabilität und Legitimität einer Friedensordnung untergraben. Bemühungen um den Aufbau von Rechtsstaatlichkeit, um Korruptionsbekämpfung und die Beteiligung der Zivilgesellschaft müssen gleichberechtigt neben der Förderung von Wahlen stehen. Die neuen Leitlinien der Bundesregierung zur Konfliktbearbeitung sind ein erster Schritt in die richtige Richtung."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["5CO1LGMUCEhgvtSTKvhQ0V",{"sys":{"id":"5CO1LGMUCEhgvtSTKvhQ0V","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Tabelle Focus LA 2021_04","title":"Bild Tabelle Focus LA 2021_04","altText":"Table of Presidential Interruptions in the Third Wave of Democratisation","copyright":" Own Elaboration","caption":"Table 1\nPresidential Interruptions in the Third Wave of Democratisation\nNote: *Coups.","media":{"sys":{"id":"QPS8on0jyDWoy2dPdb6Z1","type":"Asset"},"title":"tabelle_focus_LA_2021-4","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/QPS8on0jyDWoy2dPdb6Z1/3cac9f2cde6ec57637cc2beb8ed3e510/tabelle_focus_LA_2021-4.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["5IOtU0ZYpHuuohM3yXL9OZ",{"sys":{"id":"5IOtU0ZYpHuuohM3yXL9OZ","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika Under Pressure: Democratisation Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa ","showHeadlineLeft":false,"backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Military coups, leaders abolishing constitutional term limits, and violent conflicts undermining democratic governance have made headlines in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. However, longitudinal data from key democracy indices and survey data from Afrobarometer reveal that the state of democracy in Africa is better than expected in certain regards."}]},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Policy Implications "}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"While only Africans will make democracy work, external influences can make a difference here. Western countries need to avoid supporting authoritarian leaders and stop prioritising geopolitical interests over genuine support for democracy. Democratic governments and pro-democratic societal actors should be treated preferentially. It is also important to stress that “democracy” is not a concept imposed by the West but means freedom from oppression for all people."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The “African Spring” Has Already Happened"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Outside views on Africa regularly focus on negative aspects, often stereotypes. Besides disease, poverty, and violent conflict, military coups and authoritarian leaders frequently make headlines too. It is not uncommon for questions to arise about when an “African Spring” – like the Arab Spring – will eventually happen. The happy but possibly surprising truth is that the African Spring has already occurred. A wave of democratisation hit the continent after the end of the Cold War. One-party governments as well as personal and military dictatorships came under acute pressure. By the early years of the new century, almost all African countries had introduced multiparty electoral systems."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Figure 1 below depicts the trends vis-à-vis democracy’s spread and resilience over time, based on data from the "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":". Here, democracy is operationalised as “polyarchy” – a term coined by "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", meaning “rule of the many.” Polyarchy is different from “ideal democracy” in that is very difficult or even impossible to achieve and exists nowhere – also not in Western countries. Ideal democracy would require perfect political equality of all citizens, for instance. In terms of content, polyarchy means a both competitive and participatory form of government. More specifically, polyarchy requires free and fair elections that generally allow active and passive political participation and most importantly actually serve to determine rulers. Polyarchy is accompanied by the freedoms of expression and association as well as alternative sources of information. By and large, polyarchy is functionally equivalent to what other political scientists call “liberal democracy.”"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"When we look at the long-term trends in Figure 1, we can see the steep increase in democracy for sub-Saharan Africa in the decade from 1990 to 2000. Starting around 2015, meanwhile, we observe what is called “democratic backsliding” (e.g. Arriola, Rakner, and van de Walle 2022). A downward trend cannot be denied and finds its most visible expression in the sudden breakdown of democratic rule in countries like Burkina Faso, Guinea, or Mali – and most recently Niger, the “last democracy standing” in the Sahel. Burkina Faso had democratised only shortly before it fell prey to instability and then military coups. Benin, like Mali hitherto often hailed as a showcase of democracy in Africa, showed a less dramatic breakdown, but has seen the increasing domination of the executive – as affecting the competitive nature of elections."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The Glass Is (Only) Half-Full"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"While the overall trend is perhaps better than expected, we need to concede that the glass is only half-full at best. A “feel-good narrative” would be dangerous "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":". We count only ten cases in which merely “electoral democracy” – a lesser form of democracy where, typically, all possible liberties are only partially present – has proved more or less stable since its introduction in the early 1990s. A 2022 snapshot (Figure 2 below) shows that this concerns countries in West Africa such as Ghana and states in Southern Africa like Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa. The remaining electoral democracies are largely small island states like Cabo Verde and Mauritius. A roughly equal number of countries must be considered hard autocracies. The worst examples represent the quasi-totalitarian states Equatorial Guinea and Eritrea. Other such dictatorships include Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, and the absolute monarchy of Eswatini (formerly known as Swaziland). At the time of writing, countries like Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Mali, and Niger must be considered military regimes – with civilian governments having been overthrown in coups in each."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-4","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Figure 1. Democratic Trends in Africa Over Time in Comparative Perspective"}]},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-block","data":{"target":{"sys":{"id":"2QoyU09SsU9AnmWnebqaL5","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04_01","title":"Democratic Trends in Africa Over Time in Comparative Perspective","media":{"sys":{"id":"2mHXCQmjA5Z3QsjzYzKbGq","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04_01","description":"","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/2mHXCQmjA5Z3QsjzYzKbGq/f49d79d3ecb2f9a24a42e83183cab89f/Focus-Afrika-2023-04-Figure1.png","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1056}},"contentType":"image/png"}},"altText":"Democratic Trends in Africa Over Time in Comparative Perspective"}}},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Source:"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Notes:"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" Polyarchy is a concept of “real world” democracy "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" that includes free and fair elections as well as freedom rights close to liberal democracy. The numbers on the y-axis represent the average democracy score (with 1 being the most and 0 being the least democratic) across all countries in the respective world region."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The majority of African countries, however, qualify as “hybrid” regimes that are neither fully democratic nor entirely hard authoritarian. Hybrid regimes are those political systems that regularly hold elections but in which either voting polls themselves or governing practices do not fully conform to democratic principles. One can further differentiate between two groups within hybrid regimes. One comprises countries like Mauritania and Togo that lean more towards authoritarian rule. The "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" calls such regimes “moderate autocracies.” A second group encompasses cases closer to democracy, and hence can be labelled “defective democracies.” Countries like Senegal or Sierra Leone arguably belong to this group. Kenya, Malawi, and especially Zambia can also be considered democratic hopefuls, if not already electoral democracies, as recent elections were relatively free and fair in all three."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"“Failed states” may form a final regime type, in which the government lacks control over its territory and the state hardly functions otherwise. Examples are Central African Republic, Somalia, and South Sudan, as well as arguably the Democratic Republic of Congo. Many Sahelian states like Mali are also showing signs of state failure."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Figure 2 also reveals regional patterns within sub-Saharan Africa. Democracy is most established in Southern Africa, while Central Africa has seen the least progress hereon. East Africa features many hybrid regimes. West African countries experienced substantial democratic progress in the past but have since suffered from a number of setbacks – not least in the Sahel, as the recent coups demonstrate. It is also worthwhile to look beyond the sub-Saharan Africa region. Figure 1 above also shows that the latter remains below the global average on democratic progress. Yet, sub-Saharan Africa compares favourably to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the world region seeing the lowest level of democracy. This is remarkable, not least because the general level of socio-economic development is on average higher in the MENA."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-4","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Figure 2. Level of Democracy (Polyarchy) in 2022"}]},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-block","data":{"target":{"sys":{"id":"31uO2CaR1gkmzWNDlKMOdU","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04_02","title":"Level of Democracy (Polyarchy) in 2022","media":{"sys":{"id":"22XQmkVuxAgXZGWIO2zZAt","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04_02","description":"","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/22XQmkVuxAgXZGWIO2zZAt/3c71b2d949de362533b9d8e0bbf5087c/Focus-Afrika-2023-04-Figure2.png","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1252}},"contentType":"image/png"}},"altText":"Level of Democracy (Polyarchy) in 2022"}}},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Source:"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Note:"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" A darker shade of blue indicates the greater presence of democracy."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"What Do Africans Want?"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Usually, expert knowledge gathered in the Global North forms the basis of such assessments. While most democracy indices increasingly include African experts, they still rely heavily on Western expertise and do not sufficiently consider the views and attitudes of Africans themselves. However, "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" data fills this gap by providing information on citizens’ attitudes towards and perceptions of democracy and governance for up to 39 countries on the continent. The most recent full round of the survey covers the years 2019 to 2021. Findings indicate that Africans are largely committed to the idea of democracy and reject authoritarian alternatives. Yet, they find the “supply of democracy” – that is, the extent to which it is realised – to be largely lacking. On average, 51 per cent of respondents view their country’s political system as a democracy with no or minor problems while only 41 per cent are fully happy with how democracy works there."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"These public views should, of course, be related to individual countries. Afrobarometer shows that, by and large, citizens’ perceptions of how democratic or not their countries are mirror expert ratings. This is true for both democratic showcases like Botswana and Ghana as well as for authoritarian countries like Gabon, Mali (after the coup), Sudan, and Zimbabwe. However, there are some noteworthy differences. Tanzania tops public qualification as a democracy (86 per cent of respondents there) but ranks as a defective democracy in expert assessments at best. In turn, only 37 per cent of South African respondents view their country as democratic – a remarkable deviation from its high score vis-à-vis all democracy indices used in expert assessments."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-4","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Figure 3. Afrobarometer’s Findings on the Extent of Satisfaction with Democracy"}]},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-block","data":{"target":{"sys":{"id":"5NYggVdYBDLLW1KTxy5aVa","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04_03","title":"Afrobarometer’s Findings on the Extent of Satisfaction with Democracy","media":{"sys":{"id":"6u4hwSOK4GtiqRvm56s1TI","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04_03","description":"","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/6u4hwSOK4GtiqRvm56s1TI/0b671816480707ff99367848343df427/Focus-Afrika-2023-04-Figure3.png","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/png"}},"altText":"Afrobarometer’s Findings on the Extent of Satisfaction with Democracy"}}},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Source:"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Note"},{"nodeType":"text","value":": Respondents were asked: In your opinion, how much of a democracy is [your country] today? Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [your country]?"}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Viewing one’s country as democratic and preferring democracy are not the same thing. Afrobarometer finds solid popular support for democracy. On average two-thirds of all Africans prefer democracy as a system of government. They also reject authoritarian alternatives by a significant margin. Some 74 per cent reject military rule,"},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" 77 per cent reject one-party rule, and 82 per cent even reject one-person rule "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":". While the preference for democracy has slightly decreased – in cases such as South Africa, even steeply – the support for presidential term limits (77 per cent of respondents) has grown. Africans also overwhelmingly wish to see the realisation of other democratic principles such as presidential compliance with court decisions, multiparty polities, and leaders chosen ideally via elections "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The Case for Democracy in Africa"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"That Africans overwhelmingly prefer democracy – including specific aspects of it – and reject authoritarian alternatives already makes an independent case for this form of government in Africa. If we take African sovereignty seriously, we must respect and support Africans’ preference for democracy. There are additional supporting arguments here: Democracy is ethically superior to other forms of government if we take the meaning of the word literally. Democracy is the rule of the people. It means that the populace decide who governs them. Liberal democracy also includes several additional civil and political liberties."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Sometimes theorists argue that, in the sense of polyarchy or liberal democracy, this form of government is a purely Western import and alien to African culture. While a debate on how the “rule of the people” – which is what democracy means – must be adapted to local conditions is important, opponents of democracy in Africa (and elsewhere) face the necessity of making the case for why Africans should not enjoy the right to determine their leaders and should not enjoy civil liberties. In short, live free from oppression."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In addition, there might be functional reasons to prefer democracy over other forms of government. Fully democratic political systems can react to public discontent without resorting to violence; people can remove governments without bloodshed, as famously stated by Karl Popper (1945: 121–122). Democracy is a peaceful way of managing conflict and this is no small advantage – although one may argue that this gain materialises only when democracy is fully functioning."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"It has also been claimed that democracy is better for socio-economic development, even though the relationship here is complex: introducing democracy does not directly lead to prosperity and well-being. However, there is a theoretical and an empirical argument backing the claim that democracy fosters socio-economic development. First, authoritarian leaders must make happy the small elite inner circle keeping them in power, while democratic leaders must please voters – which incentivises producing better economic policies for larger numbers of people (Bueno de Mesquita and Smith 2011). Second, the best-performing African countries in socio-economic terms, Botswana and Mauritius, are long-standing democracies. Authoritarian states showcasing development are rare in Africa. The frequently cited exception, Rwanda, has still to stand the litmus test of what happens once President Paul Kagame leaves office. Most other current or past African autocracies have a dismal record regarding socio-economic achievements."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Democracy’s Drivers and Obstacles"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"If we agree that democracy in Africa and for its citizens is desirable, we must grasp what helps promote democracy and what serves to hinder it. Researchers have named several essential and favourable conditions here "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" the level of socio-economic development, peaceful relations between “cultural” identity groups, the reining in of the military and other “forces of coercion,” as well as the political culture (of the elites) and external factors such as domination by outside countries. These factors are all interrelated, but can be discussed individually."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"First is socio-economic development, with higher levels hereof also making democracy more likely. The middle class are the traditional drivers and supporters of liberalisation and democracy. Where there is more wealth to distribute, competition is less fierce. There is reason for hope. Largely ignored by the public, African countries have made substantial progress in these regards "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":". At the same time, risks persist in the form a possible debt crisis, the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, or the global repercussions from the Russian war on Ukraine or from climate change."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Distributional conflicts often manifest along ethnic or other identity-group lines. Colonialism has left Africa with ethnically heterogenous populations and frequently saw divide-and-rule policies employed. Many sub-Saharan countries must cope with inter-ethnic and other identity-related conflicts. While diversity sadly always carries the risk of division, violent conflict is not inevitable. There are workarounds. Democracy, as an institutionalised way to peacefully manage tensions, and special fixes provided by “institutional engineering” can accommodate conflict risks: such examples might be federalism and decentralisation, or electoral systems that ensure representation and incentivise cooperation. Constraints on executive power such as term limits or regional quotas for presidential and other elections may help, too. A functioning democracy remains, however, not only a matter of institutional design but also of wise governance."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Democracy also requires that the “forces of coercion” remain under strict civilian control. Armed non-state actors threaten democratic rule. Moreover, the state security sector is one of the most eminent threats to democracy. The recent military coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Niger, and Sudan attest to this challenge (in Gabon, an authoritarian regime was overthrown). Yet, such coups do not come out of the blue. Typically, they occur in countries with a traditionally politicised military and a manifest political or other crisis – which also explains why those leading coups are often quite popular, given that they promise to address the sources of widespread dissatisfaction in terms of socio-economic and/or security problems."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Coup-triggering crises are often related to the perception that incumbents have failed to address core challenges. Political and other elites are key to the success of democracy. "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" named pro-democratic political culture as an essential condition for democracy, meaning attitudes towards it on the part of both the population and of leaders. As discussed above, it is not the lack of popular support for democracy in Africa but rather the ever-present temptation of authoritarian rule for elites that threatens it. Elections entail the possibility of losing power. The relationship between elite attitudes towards democracy and its success seems obvious. We must, therefore, ask how elites can either become (more) democratic and/or adhere better to the rules of the game. One fix is the institutional constraints imposed by elections or term limits. Another is a vibrant civil society that monitors and keeps in check any authoritarian tendencies."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"However, external influences will make a difference too. "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"saw the biggest external threat to democracy as lying in the domination by outside countries hostile to this form of government, like the Soviet Union or other imperial powers. Even following formal decolonisation external influences still matter, and their impact might increase in a changing and potentially more confrontational world order. The good news is that competition at the global level and the increasing diversification of external actors in Africa such as Brazil, China, India, Middle Eastern countries, and Russia increases the choice regarding external partners and thus the agency of African leaders. Yet, this may also increase the agency of leaders vis-à-vis their populations. If nefarious African elites gain outside support, they also gain greater leverage over their populations."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The growing influence of authoritarian countries like China might also serve to promote non-democratic role models. Russia has been successful in spreading the narrative that democracy is a Western import rather than a system of government of self-rule. Middle Eastern countries have also been active in promoting Islamism, which may have provided fertile ground for the “jihadist wave” that has as of now befallen approximately one-third of sub-Saharan countries and is currently threatening West Africa."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"There is also a looming danger at the systemic level. Growing “system competition” globally may degenerate into polarised thinking like during the Cold War. African leaders could then gain outside support regardless of their democratic credentials simply because of a pro-Western foreign policy or the supplying of strategic natural resources. In the worst-case scenario, global rivalries might fuel internal conflict and sustain or even intensify bloodshed, like in Angola or Mozambique before the fall of the Iron Curtain."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Foreign Policy Implications: The What, Who, and How"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"A Western policy (re)orientation towards Africa needs to acknowledge that democracy can only prevail there when it is realised by Africans themselves. While external factors matter, the influence of the West vis-à-vis Africa is generally limited and likely to further decrease. Westerners should not and cannot “save Africa” – a benevolent but highly paternalistic view. The times of a “civilising mission” are over. Yet, a less missionary perspective should not be mistaken as a case for being cynical about democracy in Africa. As noted, its citizens do want democracy."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"A first related imperative for foreign policy actors refers to making up their minds about what role the promotion of democracy should even play, especially in relation to other policy goals such as navigating geopolitical competition, ensuring the supply of natural resources, managing migration flows, and combatting violent extremism. Any such conceptualisations must embrace the tensions between respective goals. Moreover, any (Africa) policy will be more effective the more coherent it is. This obviously relates to the “concert” of nations, but also to different government bodies within countries – not least in Germany."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Beyond the “what” and “who,” one needs to also rethink the “how.” While all of the conditions discussed above like socio-economic development, peaceful intergroup relations, or a professional military are a sound basis for the promotion of democracy, one needs to avoid any policies that harm democracy. These include support for authoritarian leaders in pursuit of short-sighted goals such as realising Western foreign policy ambitions or the supplying of strategic natural resources. Admittedly, that is easier said than done. As discussed, foreign policy actors must consider diverse goals at the same time. Not uncommonly, ones other than democracy matter greatly. Sometimes for good reason: the need to manage violent conflict or natural disasters occasionally requires tacit cooperation with authoritarian regimes."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Yet, wherever possible, democratic governments in Africa should enjoy preferential treatment. In authoritarian regimes, civil society can be supported. Germany’s political foundations – which are quite specific compared to other international actors also addressing issues of democratic governance on the African continent – at times enjoy greater leverage when it comes to highlighting certain issues regarding which diplomats must act with greater caution. Special attention needs to be given to the most suitable narrative to “promote” democracy: it means the rule of the people, and thus self-determination. The case can hardly be made that Africans should be denied freedom from oppression."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"At the same time, the chosen messaging must avoid paternalistic attitudes that play into the narrative of democracy being a Western imposition. Respectful “eye level” communication is not something granted by “donors” but a matter of attitude. One must increase efforts to counter the disinformation campaigns and anti-Western narratives of Russia and others. These attempts at redress will be more credible when Westerners critically reflect on their own courses of action hitherto. All too often, Western governments have earned a reputation for being hypocritical, paying only lip service to democracy, but actually prioritising less noble causes in Africa such as resource extraction or a pro-Western foreign policy. It seems advisable to be open about self-interest and tensions between goals, rather than preaching water and drinking wine. Yet, a consistent and persistent pro-democratic Africa policy will likely pay off: in being able to draw on popular support, it may well succeed in the long run."}]}]}}}],["5Ohz7kMzeIbPluMXaZTluY",{"sys":{"id":"5Ohz7kMzeIbPluMXaZTluY","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2018_05_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Wahlmanipulationen in Afrika","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$8f","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$90","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Gerichte als Schiedsrichter bei Wahlen","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$91","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$92","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Im anglophonen Afrika sind die Zuständigkeiten für Wahldispute breiter auf verschiedene Institutionen verteilt. Als Trend lässt sich erkennen, dass die Obersten Gerichtshöfe in den anglophonen Ländern vorwiegend für Klagen im Zusammenhang mit Präsidentschaftswahlen zuständig sind und dann für solche, die nach der Verkündung der Ergebnisse eingereicht werden."},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" In Kenia entscheidet zum Beispiel die Wahlkommission über alle Klagen, die im Vorfeld von Wahlen eingereicht werden, während der Oberste Gerichtshof über Dispute nach den Ergebnissen entscheidet. In Nigeria und Liberia ist der Oberste Gerichtshof lediglich die letzte Instanz in Wahldisputen, während in Gambia einzig und allein der Oberste Gerichtshof über alle juristischen Streitigkeiten in Parlaments- und Präsidentschaftswahlen richtet. Im lusophonen Afrika lassen sich ebenfalls keine klaren Muster für die Zuständigkeit von Wahldisputen erkennen. Während die Verfassungsgerichte in Mosambik sowie in São Tomé und Príncipe in letzter Instanz über Wahlklagen entscheiden, weist die Verfassung von Kap Verde allgemein den Gerichten die Aufgabe zu, über Wahldispute zu richten."}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$93","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"The New York Times","nodeType":"text"},{"value":" 2018). Die Präsidentin des Verfassungsgerichts wies letztere Bedenken ab, da eine Wahl laut Verfassung innerhalb von 40 Tagen wiederholt werden müsse und dieser Zeitraum ohnehin nicht ausreiche, um die Krise im anglophonen Teil Kameruns zu lösen (Foute 2018a).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$94","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Gerichtsentscheidungen können aber auch einen positiven Einfluss auf künftige Wahlen haben, selbst wenn die Klage des Wahlverlierers abgelehnt wird. In Ghana hat der Oberste Gerichtshof nach den Präsidentschaftswahlen im Jahr 2012 insgesamt acht Monate über die Klage des knapp unterlegenen Präsidentschaftskandidaten Nana Akufo-Addo verhandelt. Die Verhandlungen waren ein nationales Spektakel, das im Fernsehen, Radio und Internet übertragen wurde. Akufo-Addos Klage wurde letztlich abgewiesen, aber das Gericht forderte in seinem 588-seitigen Abschlussurteil weitgehende Reformen der Wahlgesetze und -institutionen. Nach den Wahlen wurde ein solcher Reformprozess in Gang gesetzt (","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Africa Confidential","nodeType":"text"},{"value":" 2013a; Gyampo 2017).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Grenzen der Wahlgerichtsbarkeit","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$95","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$96","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die Schwierigkeit der Beweisfindung wird durch zeitliche Begrenzung weiter verschärft. Kandidaten haben laut Gesetz meist eine begrenzte Frist, um Klagen einzureichen, und in vielen Ländern müssen die Gerichte dann auch innerhalb weniger Tage entscheiden. Diese zeitlichen Befristungen sind auf der einen Seite sinnvoll, weil sie verhindern, dass ein Land lange durch einen ungeklärten Wahldisput gelähmt wird. Auf der anderen Seite ist es sowohl für die Kläger schwierig innerhalb kurzer Fristen Beweise aus dem gesamten Land zu sammeln und aufzubereiten als auch für die Gerichte, diese angemessen zu prüfen. In Ghana geriet die Oppositionspartei NPP (New Patriotic Party) im Jahr 2012 an ihre Grenzen, als sie innerhalb von zehn Tagen die ihrer Ansicht nach fehlerhaften Wahldokumente aus 11.000 Wahllokalen dem Gericht vorlegen wollte. Innerhalb des langen Verfahrens wurde letztlich sogar ein Beratungsunternehmen damit beauftrag, das Gericht bei der Überprüfung der Dokumente zu unterstützen (","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"Africa Confidential","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"$97","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Gerichte unter Druck","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$98","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$99","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Solche Ernennungspraktiken können dazu führen, dass Gerichte während Wahlen nicht als unabhängig wahrgenommen werden. Tatsächlich stellten zwei Klagen nach diesjährigen Präsidentschaftswahlen explizit die Unabhängigkeit des jeweiligen Gerichts infrage. In Mali forderte Oppositionsführer Cissé die Absetzung der Verfassungsrichter. Zur Begründung führte er unter anderem an, dass ein Verfassungsrichter Gründungsmitglied der Partei des Staatspräsidenten und lange ein enger Mitarbeiter desselben gewesen sei. In Kamerun beklagte der stärkste Oppositionskandidat Kamto ebenfalls die Parteilichkeit des Gerichts. Er bemängelte, dass die Präsidentin des Verfassungsgerichts mit einem Abgeordneten der langjährigen Regierungspartei verheiratet sei (Foute 2018b).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Gerichte als Teil von selbstverstärkenden Prozessen zur Autokratisierung oder Demokratisierung","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$9a","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Wie können externe Akteure dazu beitragen, dass Gerichte freie und faire Wahlen fördern? Dies kann durch Maßnahmen geschehen, die direkt auf den Wahlprozess zielen. Programme, die den Wahlprozess unterstützen, sollten auch explizite Bausteine zur Wahlrechtsprechung enthalten. Darin sollten Richter, Kandidaten, Anwälte, Mitglieder von Wahlkommissionen und Wahlhelfer für die Vorbereitung und Prüfung von Wahlklagen geschult werden. Programme zur Wählersensibilisierung sollten auch Informationen zu Wahldisputen enthalten, da die Bürger wichtige Beiträge zur Beweisführung leisten können. Unabhängige und funktionierende Wahlkommissionen können ebenfalls die Verhandlung von Wahldisputen erleichtern.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$9b","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["5P6kkZWUa3PKiEbDU35hGr",{"sys":{"id":"5P6kkZWUa3PKiEbDU35hGr","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Global 2020_01_1","title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Global 2020_01_1","altText":"Graphic shows Term-Limit Rule Types in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa as of January 2020","copyright":"Authors’ own compilation, using mapchart.net","caption":"Figure 1\nTerm-Limit Rule Types in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa as of January 2020","media":{"sys":{"id":"76I19tUGtWIdwJzBUGq0BN","type":"Asset"},"title":"GF Heyl Llanos Fig1","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/76I19tUGtWIdwJzBUGq0BN/457570a83a953afbd5b3a7ea7e786880/GF_Heyl_Llanos_Fig1.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":960,"height":618}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["5Pa21x9iI0LFSzYQ7MFYAG",{"sys":{"id":"5Pa21x9iI0LFSzYQ7MFYAG","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Literatur GIGA Focus Afrika Siding with Societies: How Europe Can Reposition Itself in the Sahel","headline":"Literatur","showHeadlineLeft":false,"backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Africa Center for Strategic Studies (2023), "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", 10 July, accessed 27 November 2023."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Afrobarometer Data (2018"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"–"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"2023), "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", accessed 27 November 2023."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Craven-Matthews, Catriona, and Pierre Englebert (2018), "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", in: "},{"nodeType":"text","value":"African Security"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", 11, 1, 1–31, accessed 27 November 2023. "}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Lierl, Malte (2021), "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", GIGA Focus Africa, 7, December, accessed 27 November 2023."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Lierl, Malte (2020), "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", GIGA Focus Africa, 7, December, accessed 27 November 2023."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"MacLachlan, Karolina, Elise Dufief, James Hall, Kari Kietzer, and Xavier Lhote (2015), "},{"nodeType":"text","value":"Security Assistance, Corruption and Fragile Environments: Exploring the Case of Mali 2001–2012"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", London: Transparency International UK."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Macron, Emmanuel (2017), "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", 28 November, accessed 27 November 2023."}]}]}}}],["5d962146-c7d5-409c-b6db-fc24047b70ff",{"sys":{"id":"5d962146-c7d5-409c-b6db-fc24047b70ff","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Mexico: Sheinbaum to Face Militarisation and Human Rights Concerns","path":"/de/publikationen/giga-focus/mexico-sheinbaum-to-face-militarisation-and-human-rights-concerns/","dataTeaser":{"date":"3/2024","link":"https://doi.org/10.57671/gfla-24032","type":"GIGA Focus","tagline":["GIGA Focus Lateinamerika"],"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/workingpaper/giga_focus","value":"GIGA Focus"},"blueprint":"GIGA_FOCUS","teaserText":"Mexiko erlebt eine Militarisierung mit zunehmender Gewalt und anhaltenden Menschenrechtsverletzungen. 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Research on state feminism shows that non‐democratic regimes often enact women‐friendly policies for the purpose of maintaining power. 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In diesem Klima wurden neue Verfassungen verabschiedet, die das Verlangen der Bevölkerung widerspiegelten, die Macht der Herrschenden einzuschränken. In der Folgezeit wurde in 34 Ländern die maximale Regierungszeit von Präsidenten auf zwei Amtsperioden begrenzt. Präsidentielle Amtszeitbeschränkungen sollen demokratische Machtwechsel erleichtern, da bei Wahlen der Sieg von Amtsinhabern wahrscheinlicher ist als der von Kandidaten der Opposition. Nur 12 Prozent der Wahlen zwischen 1990 und 2009, bei denen Amtsinhaber erneut antraten, wurden von einem Oppositionskandidaten gewonnen."},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" Demgegenüber gewannen Oppositionspolitiker 45 Prozent der Wahlen, bei denen kein Amtsinhaber zur Wahl stand (Cheeseman 2010: 142). Die Gründe für das gute Abschneiden von Amtsinhabern sind vielfältig. Sie haben einen größeren Bekanntheitsgrad und können mit in der Regierungszeit erfolgreich umgesetzten Projekten werben. Darüber hinaus nutzen viele ihre Amtszeit, um ihre Unterstützernetzwerke durch lukrative Posten oder begünstigende Politikentscheidungen enger an sich zu binden. Zudem haben Amtsinhaber Zugang zu staatlichen Ressourcen, die sie im Wahlkampf einsetzen."}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$9c","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$9d","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Druck von unten: Die Rolle der Zivilgesellschaft","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$9e","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Zivilgesellschaftlicher Aktivismus spielte aber nicht nur bei den politischen Umstürzen zu Beginn der 1990er Jahre eine wichtige Rolle, sondern auch in der darauffolgenden Phase der Konsolidierung. Es gibt einen nachweislichen Zusammenhang zwischen einer erfolgreichen Demokratisierung und einer lebendigen Zivilgesellschaft. Im Fall schwacher politischer Institutionen üben zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen eine wichtige Vorbild- und Kontrollfunktion aus. Eine pluralistische Zivilgesellschaft kann den Grundstein dafür legen, dass gesellschaftspolitische Aushandlungsprozesse offen, fair und friedlich stattfinden. Zudem können zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen politische Fehlentwicklungen anprangern. 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Die Proteste in Simbabwe im Jahr 2016 stehen exemplarisch für die Verbindung von politischen und sozioökonomischen Forderungen. Teilnehmer des landesweiten Generalstreiks, die sich vor allem über soziale Medien vernetzen, forderten die Zahlung ausstehender Löhne, aber auch ein Ende der Ära Mugabe.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Der Erfolg solcher Bewegungen war bisher begrenzt. Die politischen Proteste in Äthiopien 2016 wurden von der Regierung brutal niedergeschlagen. Auch in Simbabwe hält sich Präsident Mugabe trotz der Demonstrationen weiter an der Macht, was nicht zuletzt auf die Schwäche der Oppositionsparteien zurückzuführen ist. Demgegenüber stehen Erfolgsfälle wie Burkina Faso. Dort gelang es Aktivisten nicht nur, die Aufhebung der Amtszeitbeschränkung zu verhindern. In der Folge musste Präsident Compaoré, einer der dienstältesten Herrscher Subsahara-Afrikas, abdanken. Definiert man Erfolg nicht im engen Sinne als Regimewechsel, haben auch jene zivilgesellschaftlichen Bewegungen einen Grundstein für tiefgreifenden Wandel gelegt, deren Forderungen sich (vorerst) nicht erfüllt haben, indem sie als Keimzellen für die Entwicklung neuer Vorstellungen von demokratischer Partizipation wirken (Branch und Mampilly 2015).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Gezielte Förderung von Institutionen und Zivilgesellschaft","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$a1","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["5h5utosOON3r4eCFPCDrQ6",{"sys":{"id":"5h5utosOON3r4eCFPCDrQ6","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus LA 2021_04_1.Seite","showHeadlineLeft":false,"backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In präsidentiellen Demokratien sind Amtsenthebungsverfahren ein wichtiger Mechanismus zur Kontrolle der exekutiven Befugnisse. Es handelt sich dabei um ein verfassungskonformes Instrument, machthungrige Präsidentinnen und Präsidenten, die die Demokratie gefährden, Gesetze brechen, in Korruption oder andere skandalöse Verhaltensweisen involviert sind, aus dem Amt zu entfernen. Allein die Existenz dieses Kontrollmechanismus kann Fehlverhalten Einhalt gebieten. Jüngste Beispiele in Lateinamerika zeigen aber auch, dass Amtsenthebungsverfahren die Tür für parteipolitische Interessen und Opportunismus öffnen können.\r"}]},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit\r"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Externe Akteure wie die USA oder die Europäische Union müssen sich darüber im Klaren sein, dass Amtsenthebungsverfahren keine schnelle Lösung sind. Im Gegenteil – in einigen Fällen beruht ein solches Verfahren nicht auf politischem Fehlverhalten, sondern ist in tiefergehenden strukturellen Problemen der politischen Krise begründet. Externe Akteure müssen diese tiefergehende Krise dekodieren, die mit Problemen der Repräsentativität zusammenhängen kann. Auf dieser Grundlage sollten sie dann konstruktive Lösungen unterstützen, die vor allem die Rechenschaftspflicht politischer Akteure und Institutionen sowie responsive öffentliche Politik stärken."},{"nodeType":"text","value":"\r"}]}]}}}],["5hzbHfaT6x9h9NnYuzF4XJ",{"sys":{"id":"5hzbHfaT6x9h9NnYuzF4XJ","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"columnContent"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Übersetzung GIGA Focus Jugendliche als Friedensakteure (ESP)","headline":"Download","showHeadlineLeft":false,"backgroundColour":"White","columnCount":3,"topics":[{"sys":{"id":"2CTNKaOY2vOlM6zjHFSbUQ","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaDocument"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"PDF Übersetzung GIGA Focus Jugendliche als Friedensakteure (ESP)","title":"Text (PDF Spanisch)","media":{"sys":{"id":"3l8HA4X8xKw7PUERXjH0oU","type":"Asset"},"title":"PERSPECTIVAS kurtenbach FF","description":"","file":{"url":"//assets.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/3l8HA4X8xKw7PUERXjH0oU/a0642b0abaafdb181cf786ceca991ee1/PERSPECTIVAS_kurtenbach_FF.pdf","details":{},"contentType":"application/pdf"}}}}]}}],["5pNrNCfRVsLIYWXnTjS7Ml",{"sys":{"id":"5pNrNCfRVsLIYWXnTjS7Ml","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Global 2020_01_2","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$a2","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The incentives to wait in the wings for a return to the presidency are particularly strong if presidents are still young, and further if they are not offered alternative career options due to a weak private sector. This is why the Mo Ibrahim Foundation launched a prize for leadership achievements that grants selected former heads of state an award of USD 5 million over 10 years. Liberia’s former head of state Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was the last chosen laureate, after having respected the country’s two-term limit.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Paths of Stability and Change","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The rule type prevailing in the respective countries today is the result of a long-term process and, in many cases, it is unlikely to be the final word thereon. Both the direction and the frequency of change are important. In the reform fever that has swept the two regions in the last few decades, reforms were directed towards easing the possibility of a presidential comeback – either immediately or at some point in the future. Nonetheless, the recent cases of Ecuador (2018) and Togo (2019) also reveal opposing trends. The individual trajectories of the presidential term-limit rule are quite singular meanwhile, but many of these processes show recurrent features and some general trends appear across time and regions. Below we outline six individual trajectories – three each from Africa and Latin America respectively – as well as their recent consequences for electoral turnover.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"From Toothless Term Limits to Stability: Chad, Ghana, Senegal","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Term limits are associated with democratic rule, but may also be present in authoritarian constitutions. In the latter, they are frequently toothless. In Chad, its introduction feigned liberalisation but never actually constrained the incumbent’s time in office. The authoritarian leader Idriss Déby introduced twice a two-term limit as a strategic move, but he also made sure that it does not pose a threat to his power. In 1996, Déby’s government was under pressure from France to complete the constitutional consultation process after he had ruled for six years under a transitional charter. In the meanwhile, many other African countries had adopted democratic constitutions in which term limits were a standard feature. However, the term-limit clause was abolished in 2005 before it could prohibit Déby from running for another term. In his 2016 election campaign, still-incumbent Déby pledged to reintroduce the term limit in order to facilitate electoral turnover.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"At first sight, this might seem a surprising move by a leader who until then had ruled the country uninterrupted for some 26 years. However, the re-introduction of the term limit was accompanied by the creation of a full presidential system of government that granted an already powerful president even more prerogatives. Moreover, the new term limit does not apply retroactively. Thus Déby is allowed to run for another two terms and to potentially rule until 2033, which would mean a total of 43 years in power. Besides Chad, there are a few other examples of countries in Africa ruled by a long-term leader and where the term limits prescribed in the constitution do not constrain the prospects of the ruler in the near future (such as Equatorial Guinea, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and Togo).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$a3","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Wade’s successor Macky Sall pledged in his own campaign to respect the term limit. However, in the most recent constitutional reform of 2016 the term-limit rule was softened through the adoption of more ambiguous wording. Moreover, Sall sacked a public official in October 2019 after he had publicly stated that the Senegalese constitution does not allow Sall to stand for a third term. In his last press conference of 2019, Sall refused to identify a clear position regarding his potential third candidacy (Diop 2020; Rogers 2019). These recent events show that the history of presidents contesting the term limit continues, but the heated public debate in response to these attempts also suggests that Senegalese civil society is gearing up to defend the term limit once again.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Still, not all African term-limit rules are subject to contestation or manipulation. The case of Ghana proves the opposite in fact. The country’s term-limit rule remains untouched since its introduction in 1992, and it induced two electoral turnovers in 2000 and 2008. Ghana has a stable two-party system and regular alternation in power. Moreover, electoral turnovers there are not only the result of the two-term limit. In the most recent presidential election of 2016, then-incumbent John Mahama was defeated after having served only one term. Benin, Mali, Liberia, São Tomé e Príncipe, and Sierra Leone are other examples of African countries in which the term limit is respected and has induced electoral turnovers. In ones like Mozambique and Tanzania, term limits were also repeatedly respected; here, presidents changed but the dominant party still remained in power.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Seeking Continuity with Different Term Limits: Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The variety in Latin American presidential term limits and their different implications became evident during the three presidential electoral processes that took place last October in South America. In Argentina and Bolivia, the incumbent presidents were seeking re-election. In Uruguay, it was the ruling party that was seeking to keep hold of the presidency for a further term. None of them ultimately achieved what they were looking for, but the consequences were different for each.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$a4","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In Argentina, Mauricio Macri (2015–2019) was seeking re-election last October, but he lost in the first round. His defeat meant the return to power of the Peronists, who had run the presidency for three consecutive terms before Macri. In 1994, a constitutional reform authorised immediate re-election in Argentina.","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"value":" Then-ruling President Carlos Menem (1989–1995) was able to profit from it and, indeed, served another term (1995–1999). The term-limit rule has been stable since then. Menem tried to circumvent it in the late 1990s, but failed. The chances to profit from re-election have been uneven though, with the Peronist Party traditionally being electorally stronger: the Kirchner couple – first Néstor (2003–2007), then his wife Cristina (2007–2011, 2011–2015) – ruling, as noted, for three consecutive terms, if taken together. As the comparative literature suggests, rule authorisation in almost every case means that the president will seek re-election; moreover, a re-election bid is likely to be successful, as incumbents have plenty of advantages in electoral contests.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In Latin America, between the late 1970s and 2017 incumbents sought re-election on 27 occasions and only failed on three of them (Marsteintredet 2019). Macri’s recent defeat adds to the minority group, but his single-term presidency has some additional historical relevance for Argentina. In fact, Macri finished his term despite severe socio-economic constraints and against a historical background of political instability that has particularly affected non-Peronists governments. In a context of political and economic crisis, party alternation in power provided for an institutional exit – much in contrast to the situations of protest and social unrest that erupted in several neighbouring countries (Llanos and Maia 2019).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Events in Bolivia, meanwhile, contrast with the previous two cases. Morales, the charismatic leader of the Movement to Socialism (MAS) and president of Bolivia since 2006, sought a fourth presidential mandate in last October’s presidential elections despite having been defeated in the 2016 referendum, when his country’s people rejected a constitutional reform to allow him to run for another consecutive term. This outcome was thanks also to a controversial ruling by the Constitutional Court that in 2017 changed the meaning of the 2009 constitution, stating that rules limiting the president’s chance to run for office again violated constitutional political rights.","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"value":" But the electoral results of October 2019 did not turn out as expected by the president. They were objected to on the grounds of allegations of serious fraud, which triggered weeks of intense and violent popular protest. Facing the withdrawal of support from the heads of the armed forces and the police, Morales resigned and fled abroad. Now he lives in exile in Argentina, and cannot stand as a candidate in the recently announced presidential elections that will take place on 3 May.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$a5","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Ambiguous Effects in the Grey Zone","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$a6","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Yet, compliance with term limits and the occurrence of the electoral turnover of power alone do not guarantee democracy. We have learnt that the association of term limits with democracy in practice is more complex than the theory suggests. Sometimes leaders elected in a turnover do not pursue agendas that foster democracy and socio-economic development, as we have seen in Senegal in 2000 – where the turnover president Wade subsequently ruled in an autocratic way. In weak democratic contexts, the sound functioning of other political institutions, civil society, and the media, as checks on the executive, is crucial. However if electoral turnovers are a credible possibility in competitive settings, they provide a horizon to navigate towards and fuel expectations of change – which in turn enhance commitment to the rules and may induce stronger checks and balances, such as independent courts.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Even if the consequences of term limits and electoral turnover are not straightforward, what we do know is that term limits are potentially important checks on power and also that they are increasingly socially valued. This is noticeable in Africa, where the rule – in spite of its only rather short existence to date – seems to be taking root. The Afrobarometer survey reveals that a large majority of the interviewed Africans support presidential term limits. In the most recent survey round, 74 per cent of respondents across 33 countries agreed with the idea of two-term limits; the level of support for it remained stable in comparison to the last survey rounds (Afrobarometer 2020). Moreover, presidents’ manipulations have driven numerous people to the streets to demand rule reinstatement, as we have recently seen in Guinea.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Presidential term limits have repeatedly come under political pressure. As a principle, they are likely to remain in the respective constitutions even while their contestation continues here and there. The form and path that their reform follow in practice will need to be monitored closely, because they always have something to tell us on the state of democracy, the risk of backlash, or regarding the chances of regime liberalisation.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["5vbfHXPQcneULsT3pzbQAr",{"sys":{"id":"5vbfHXPQcneULsT3pzbQAr","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2018_04_2","title":"Grafik Focus Afrika 2018_04_2","altText":"Vier Karten zeigen regionale Trends bei Beschränkungen in den afrikanischen Ländern südlich der Sahara, 2000-2015","copyright":"Die Daten wurden auf Grundlage der jährlich erscheinenden Menschenrechtsberichte des US State Department gesammelt (US State Department 2018).","caption":"Abb. 2\nRegionale Trends in den Beschränkungen in Subsahara-Afrika, 2000-2015\n\nAnmerkung: Die Daten bilden 12 verschiedene Formen von Beschränkungen gegenüber zivilgesellschaftlichen Organisationen ab: Das Verbieten von Organisationen, Reisebeschränkungen, Zugangsbeschränkungen zu Regierungseigentum (z.B. 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Ist auf dem Kontinent eine Renaissance…"},"pageIntroMedia":[{"sys":{"id":"4fsRfzD3sM0g0Aq3tQ9RiT","type":"Entry","contentType":"$36:2:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:sys:contentType"},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Grafik Logo Focus Afrika alt","title":"Bild Grafik Logo Focus Afrika alt","altText":"Grafik Logo Focus Afrika","copyright":"GIGA","media":{"sys":{"id":"7slkSrPSKpxre6REUCfAa0","type":"Asset"},"title":"Logo_GIGA_Focus_Afrika","file":"$36:2:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"}}}],"teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"7slkSrPSKpxre6REUCfAa0","type":"Asset"},"title":"Logo_GIGA_Focus_Afrika","file":"$36:2:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - GIGA Focus Africa","date":"2008-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"}}],["61b2vywbmzez5PRc0KCj6E",{"sys":{"id":"61b2vywbmzez5PRc0KCj6E","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Nahost_2020_7_3","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$a7"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$a8"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"rizq oder baraka"},{"nodeType":"text","value":") gelten. \r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$a9"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$aa"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$ab"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Zusammengenommen ist Ägyptens Überbevölkerung ein beinahe tautologisches Problem. Infrastrukturelle Nachfrage und Missstände sind aufgrund der Geburtenrate hoch, gleichzeitig begünstigen eben diese Umstände eine hohe Geburtenrate. Die spezifische Zusammensetzung der Bevölkerung belastet den Arbeitsmarkt und beeinflusst die Haltung des Militärs gegenüber dem Regime im Verhältnis zur Bevölkerung. Die Bevölkerung appelliert nicht nur an die Armee, sich wegen gemeinsamer Missstände in ihrem Namen in die Politik einzumischen; die Armee tritt auch selbst wegen der sozioökonomischen Herkunft von Soldaten und der allgemeinen Beliebtheit des Militärs in der Bevölkerung als Beschützer des Volkes und Schiedsrichter gegenüber dem Regime auf. \r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Sisis Ägypten: heimgesucht von der Vergangenheit\r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Für außenpolitische Entscheidungsträger in Deutschland und der EU ist es wichtig zu verstehen, dass Ägyptens langer Weg zu Stabilität und Demokratisierung nicht bei Wahlen beginnt, sondern vielmehr eng mit dem Austarieren der zivil-militärischen Beziehungen und der Bearbeitung jener sozioökonomischen Missstände verbunden ist, die ein Einschreiten des Militärs nötig erscheinen lassen. Maßnahmen zur Geburtenkontrolle müssen zwingend die Sicherheit von Frauen im öffentlichen Raum berücksichtigen. Die allgegenwärtige sexualisierte Gewalt gegen Frauen erschwert ihnen den Zugang zum Bildungssektor und Arbeitsmarkt und reduziert die Wirksamkeit bisheriger Maßnahmen zur Kontrolle des Bevölkerungswachstums. \r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$ac"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$ad"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$ae"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$af"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Unter diesen Bedingungen würde eine Reduktion der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und eine Einschränkung der Beziehungen zu Ägypten aufgrund soziopolitischer Rahmenbedingungen wie der politischen Rolle des Militärs oder des anhaltenden Bevölkerungswachstums – beides jahrhundertealte ägyptische Probleme – hauptsächlich der Zivilbevölkerung und insbesondere den ägyptischen Frauen Schaden zufügen. Um für Ägypten eine neue Perspektive zu finden, muss zunächst ein Ausstieg aus dem Kreislauf von Missständen und Engagement des Militärs gefunden werden, indem die akute Infrastrukturkrise entschärft und Frauen mehr gesellschaftliche Teilhabe ermöglicht wird. Andernfalls wird Ägyptens Zukunft auch weiterhin von der eigenen Vergangenheit heimgesucht.\r"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["638cb542-3180-46bc-820b-4e61f6873b8c",{"sys":{"id":"638cb542-3180-46bc-820b-4e61f6873b8c","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Why the Military Promised to Withdraw from Power in Sudan","path":"/de/publikationen/beitraege/why-the-military-promised-to-withdraw-from-power-in-sudan/","dataTeaser":{"date":"01.2023","link":"https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2023/01/10/why-the-military-promised-to-withdraw-from-power-in-sudan/","type":"Blogbeitrag","tagline":["Blogbeitrag"],"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/othercontribution/blog_article","value":"Blogbeitrag"},"blueprint":"PUBLICATION","teaserText":"Dissolving former ruling parties and purging institutions breaks with old regimes. But, Hager Ali, building strong political parties to govern after ousting long-time rulers takes far more time than new incumbents have, especially when they face severe crises.","personUuids":["b315126c-4999-4fcc-bd5a-22edfc4da3df"]},"dataDetail":{"doi":[],"date":"01.2023","type":"Blogbeitrag","isbns":[],"links":[],"status":"Veröffentlicht","dateLong":"Januar 2023","keywords":{"free":["Sudan","Sudan Coup","Military","Military Coup","civil-military relations","regime change","regime stability","cleavages","party politics","elections","hybrid regimes","Forces of Freedom and Change","Omar Al-Bashir","Abdelfattah Al-Burhan","Dagalo","Burkina Faso","Damiba","Compaoré","Ibrahim Traoré","Sahel"],"structured":[]},"pureType":{"key":"researchoutput/researchoutputtypes/othercontribution/blog_article","value":"Blogbeitrag"},"roleMaps":[{"role":{"key":"author","value":"Autor:in"},"uuids":["b315126c-4999-4fcc-bd5a-22edfc4da3df"]}],"subtitle":"Blogbeitrag | Political Violence at a Glance | 2023","urnLinks":["https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2023/01/10/why-the-military-promised-to-withdraw-from-power-in-sudan/"],"blueprint":"PUBLICATION","dateShort":"2023","publisher":"Political Violence at a Glance","unitUuids":["ad45334a-a711-40ae-9bcc-d826df57092d","b3ddc657-9933-454b-8b17-869d513f723e"],"personNames":["Hager Ali"],"personUuids":["b315126c-4999-4fcc-bd5a-22edfc4da3df"],"isForthcoming":false,"managingOrganisationalUnitUuid":"a65daf31-e463-438f-9891-d1c1e8ad18e4"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - Contributions","date":"2023-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"default-placeholder-publications-contributions","type":"Asset"},"title":"Placeholder Publications Contributions","description":"istock / FactoryTh","file":"$36:8:1:fields:teaserImage:file"}}}],["63l7Clb065l5yq6eNvJpWh",{"sys":{"id":"63l7Clb065l5yq6eNvJpWh","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2016_4_3","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Umrisse eines eigenständigen afrikanischen Demokratiemodells sind bislang nicht zu erkennen. Einigkeit besteht lediglich (a) in der Kritik an der blinden Übernahme westlicher Konzepte und institutioneller Blaupausen für afrikanische Gesellschaften (Mkandawire 2015; Mbembe 2000) und (b) in der Betonung kontextsensitiver Demokratievarianten. Tendai Biti, ein prominenter Oppositionspolitiker in Simbabwe, hinterfragt beispielsweise die Eignung des britischen Mehrheitswahlrechts für die sozialen und politischen Bedingungen in seinem Heimatland. "},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" Auch dies verdeutlicht die Bedeutung externer Unterstützung, die es afrikanischen Bürgern erleichtert, ihre Form von Demokratie gemäß ihrer Werte und gesellschaftlichen Überzeugungen zu gestalten."}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Neuer Enthusiasmus für Demokratieförderung in Afrika","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$b0","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Für viele Afrikaner liegt die Verantwortung, Menschenrechtsverletzungen zu bekämpfen und demokratische Werte zu verteidigen, jedoch primär bei nationalen Akteuren und Institutionen. 57 Prozent der von Afrobarometer Befragten bewerteten nationale Souveränität höher als „regionale Verantwortung“. Nur 36 Prozent bejahten, dass afrikanische Regierungen eine „Verpflichtung haben, freie Wahlen zu garantieren und Menschenrechtsverletzungen in anderen Ländern der Region zu verhindern, beispielsweise durch politischen Druck, Sanktionen oder Militäreinsätze“ (siehe Grafik 2).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Nur in Burkina Faso befürwortet die Mehrheit der Befragten (65 Prozent) regionale Interventionen. Dieses Ergebnis muss vor dem Hintergrund der politischen Krise in Burkina Faso im Jahr 2014 gesehen werden: Zu dieser Zeit sah sich Präsident Blaise Compaoré, der von 1987 bis 2014 herrschte, mit Protesten gegen eine geplante Verfassungsänderung konfrontiert, die ihm eine weitere Verlängerung seiner Amtszeit erlaubt hätte. Ein Staatsstreich beendete schlussendlich seine Herrschaft, und regionale Organisationen wie die AU und die Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) spielten eine wichtige Rolle in den nachfolgenden Verhandlungen. Die unmittelbare Krise wurde mit den Präsidentschaftswahlen 2015 beendet, aus denen der Oppositionspolitiker Roch Marc Kaboré als Sieger hervorging.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Staaten, in denen sich Gegner und Befürworter einer regionalen Verpflichtung zur Intervention die Waage halten, sind Togo, Sierra Leone, Simbabwe, Burundi und Swasiland. Alle fünf Staaten haben unter wiederholten internen Krisen zu leiden und sind oder waren auf externe Unterstützung zu deren Lösung angewiesen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die Akzeptanz einer regionalen Verpflichtung zur Verteidigung demokratischer Werte bleibt besonders niedrig in den als „frei“ eingestuften Staaten. In Namibia akzeptieren beispielsweise nur 22,4 Prozent der Befragten eine derartige Verantwortung. Eindeutig feststellbar ist, dass afrikanische Bürger nationale Souveränität als wichtigen Wert sehen und (regionale) externe Interventionen nur in absoluten Notfällen akzeptieren. In akuten Krisen ist es oft die Opposition, die externen Druck fordert – die internationale Kampagne gegen das Apartheid-Regime in Südafrika ist dafür das bekannteste Beispiel auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Trotz ihrer unbestreitbaren Schwächen haben die Interventionen westlicher Akteure zur insgesamt positiven demokratischen Entwicklung in Subsahara-Afrika seit Ende des Kalten Krieges beigetragen. Sie konnten allein zwar keine liberaldemokratischen Regierungsformen herbeiführen, in vielen Fällen gelang es aber, den Aufbau teilweise freier Systeme zu unterstützen oder anzustoßen. Das Fehlen eines kohärenten afrikanischen Demokratiemodells und die hohe Wertschätzung nationaler Souveränität durch die afrikanischen Bürger machen kontextsensitive Ansätze umso wichtiger. Basierend auf dem “wachsenden Konsens unter den Bürgern über die zentrale Bedeutung der universellen Normen und Werte einer Demokratie“ (Khadiagala 2016: 3) sollten externe Interventionen in Zukunft noch stärker auf die Beteiligung und Stärkung der Bürger abzielen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Westliche Regierungen, die mit gutem Beispiel vorangehen und die Legitimität und Effektivität politischer Entscheidungsfindungsprozesse zu Hause sicherstellen, können die afrikanischen Bürger auf ihrem Weg wesentlich unterstützen. Ein vielversprechendes Instrument, das bereits von einigen politischen Stiftungen angewandt wird, sind gemeinsame Trainingsprogramme für junge Führungskräfte aus Politik, Verwaltung, Medien, Nichtregierungsorganisationen und Wirtschaft. Die dauerhafte Unterstützung politischer Bildungsprogramme und die finanzielle Stärkung lokaler Initiativen, die sich für demokratische Werte einsetzen, sind weitere wichtige Instrumente. Bei schweren Verletzungen der Menschenrechte oder der demokratischen Grundrechte kann zudem externer Druck auf Regierungen die Stimme der Opposition stärken und die Kosten für die Regierung erhöhen, beispielsweise für die afrikanischen Staatsführer, die in jüngster Zeit versuchen, durch Verfassungsänderungen ihre Amtszeit zu verlängern (Carter 2016).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Der geringe Enthusiasmus für Demokratie bei den Eliten in vielen afrikanischen Staaten und der weltweit wachsende Einfluss autoritärer Mächte machen eine dauerhafte Unterstützung demokratischer Prozesse in Afrika schwieriger als zuvor, aber umso wichtiger. Auch zur Sicherung der über die letzten zwei Jahrzehnte erreichten Fortschritte ist es unerlässlich, dass externe Akteure die wahren Verfechter der Demokratie in Afrika noch stärker unterstützen als in der Vergangenheit: die afrikanischen Bürger.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["64hJRiwA3kEAPaAwrxrFpE",{"sys":{"id":"64hJRiwA3kEAPaAwrxrFpE","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Literatur [1]","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"headline":"Literatur","contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":""}],"data":{}}]}}}],["64qaEaR5YO3nxgavttpsD8",{"sys":{"id":"64qaEaR5YO3nxgavttpsD8","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik Focus Global 2021_02_1","title":"Grafik Focus Global 2021_02_1","altText":"Grafische Darstellung von Beschränkungen der Exekutivgewalt in verschiedenen Weltregionen.","copyright":"Authors’ own compilation, based on data from Coppedge et al. 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Die Autorinnen dieses GIGA Focus bewerten Maßnahmen gegen geschlechtsspezifische Gewalt von Regierungen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}],"nodeType":"document"},"teaserImage":{"sys":{"id":"5uoDZoiQ4yqePuNMNSqQOE","type":"Asset"},"title":"GIGA_Bangladesh_Nov2020_Dhaka_women_protest_violence_rape_imago0049376933h_PacificPressAgency_Website","description":"","file":"$36:177:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"},"typeOrSubtype":"Publications - GIGA Focus Global","date":"2021-10-19T00:00:00.000Z","titleOverwrite":"Die Schattenpandemie: Politikansätze bei geschlechtsspezifischer Gewalt während der COVID-19-Pandemie im Globalen Süden"}}],["6875bK8HU3yhGHj9tWWng3",{"sys":{"id":"6875bK8HU3yhGHj9tWWng3","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Global 2020_01_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In einem Großteil der afrikanischen und lateinamerikanischen Verfassungen sind derzeit präsidentielle Amtszeitbeschränkungen vorgeschrieben. Evo Morales in Bolivien und Alpha Condé in Guinea sind jedoch nur die neusten Beispiele für Amtsinhaber, die versuchen, ihre Regierungszeit zu verlängern – was zu drastischen politischen Konflikten führen kann.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"nodeType":"unordered-list"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Fazit","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die Abschaffung von Amtszeitbeschränkungen ist ein guter Indikator für einen demokratischen Rückzug und normalerweise der letzte Schritt in einer Serie von institutionellen Angriffen, die bereits zu einer Konzentration von Macht geführt haben. Amtszeitbeschränkungen werden aber noch häufiger aufgeweicht und umgangen, was ebenfalls einen negativen Einfluss auf Demokratie haben und gesellschaftliche Konflikte provozieren kann. Daher sollten alle Veränderungen der Amtszeitbeschränkungen durch die Integration in systematische Monitoring-Aktivitäten genau beobachtet und in politischen Dialogen thematisiert werden.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["6ASULsZ590F2n2OMvjIuxN",{"sys":{"id":"6ASULsZ590F2n2OMvjIuxN","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika Siding with Societies: How Europe Can Reposition Itself in the Sahel","showHeadlineLeft":false,"backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The swift rise of military juntas in the Sahel, their alignment with Russia, and their adept use of anti-colonial and anti-French rhetoric have left many in Europe grappling for answers. Was Europe’s engagement in the Sahel in vain? How should Europe position itself vis-à-vis the new military regimes?"}]},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Policy Implications"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Confronted with the military rulers’ anti-Western stance, European foreign policy should focus on societies instead of governments. In the past, Europe discredited itself by relying on dialogue with governments, without adequately considering the broken feedback loop between governments and societies. Going forward, Europe should ensure that its engagement is understood and supported by broad majorities."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The End of Europe in Africa?"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"For decades, Europe has prided itself on championing democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in its foreign policy towards Africa. However, the recent wave of military coups in Guinea, Mali, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Niger have caught European policymakers off-guard. The swift rise of military juntas, their adept use of anti-colonial and anti-French rhetoric, and their surprising ability to rally public support have left many in Europe grappling for answers. In public discourse, the narrative that Europe is losing its foothold in Africa is gaining traction, while anti-democratic powers like Russia and China appear to be expanding their influence on the continent."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"But is this the end of Europe in Africa? Are African societies truly drifting away from democratic ideals? The populist rhetoric of the military juntas might suggest so, but it masks a more complex reality. Beneath the surface, there is a profound crisis of state–society relations. These military regimes are far from consolidated. They govern fragile states, with the social order in flux. Despite their bravado, the power of the military juntas is tenuous, hinging on fleeting public support and the acquiescence of elites."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"This is where Europe’s opportunity lies. Instead of merely reacting to the changing geopolitical landscape in Africa, European governments should think ahead. They should align their foreign policy with the aspirations of African societies. Europe should invest in understanding their desires and position itself politically in ways that resonate with broad majorities in the targeted societies. Promoting democracy in Africa is not about exporting European institutions. It is about listening, understanding, and respecting majority opinions and minority rights in ways that neither the military regimes nor indeed non-democratic powers like Russia and China are capable of."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Focusing on West Africa and the Sahel, this essay will discuss the recent wave of military coups from the perspective of state–society relations. This will involve delving deeper into public attitudes towards democracy and military rule, the narratives of sovereignty and anti-colonial resistance that have fuelled the recent coups, and the political sustainability of military rule in the Sahel. Finally, a path forward will be charted for European foreign policy – one that sets it apart from its geopolitical rivals Russia and China, without engaging in a bidding war for the favour of military rulers."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Beneath the Surface: A Long-Standing Crisis of State Legitimacy"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Long before the current wave of coups, the countries of the Sahel region had been struggling with deeply problematic state–society relations. At the core of this problem lies unequal access to political-interest articulation. Politicians and institutions lacked orientation towards citizens’ needs and preferences. It was more promising for politicians to serve the narrow interests of elites than to do the hard work of reconciling conflicting interests in society. The disconnect between the political system and the everyday lives of the younger generations, the rural majority, and other non-elites resulted in a legitimacy deficit that became apparent long before the recent turn of events."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The causes of that legitimacy crisis are multifaceted and have deep historical roots. Research on African politics has pointed to the legacies of colonial institutions of domination and extraction, the dominance of informal power networks over formal institutions, ethnic and religious identity politics, unequal state presence between urban versus rural areas, the power of older, urban elites over an increasingly youthful society, the lack of a monopoly on violence, corruption and predatory behaviour by state authorities, an unaccountable security sector, aid dependence, and so forth. While the severity of these problems varies across countries, their consequences are ultimately similar: a broken feedback loop between citizens and elites."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Elections alone were insufficient to guarantee the legitimacy of civilian governments "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":". Citizens had little stake in a political process that many perceived as morally bankrupt. With respect to Mali, "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" went as far as describing the entire polity as a “Potemkin state” – that is, a façade used opportunistically for the purpose of managing international support and political transactions, but detached from the informal processes of political decision-making and the reconciliation of competing interests."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Foreign assistance and diplomacy played their own parts in the legitimacy crisis, by acting on the false premise that elected civilian governments would faithfully represent societal interests "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":". Instead of reassuring themselves that their goals and assumptions were supported by society, Western governments maintained the fiction that a fully sovereign, legitimate partner government was “in the driver’s seat.” In doing so, European governments overlooked the fact that the civilian governments they were partnering with were themselves part of the problem. During the recent coups d’état, military and political elites, civil society, and ordinary citizens proved themselves unwilling to mount meaningful resistance. This acquiescence must be understood in light of the already-damaged legitimacy of the preceding elected governments."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Have African Societies Lost their Preference for Democracy?"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Not long ago, large societal majorities across the region unconditionally preferred democracy over any other form of government. Pro-democratic revolutions in Burkina Faso in 2014 and Sudan in 2019 energised civil society across the African continent. What happened, then, to African societies’ preference for democracy? While representative data remain scarce, the few sources that are available paint a complex picture here."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-4","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Figure 1. Preferences for Democracy and Willingness to Accept Military Rule, 2018–2023"}]},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-block","data":{"target":{"sys":{"id":"1hGaWFXgdM8fFh6JPAZaxU","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_05_01","title":"Preferences for Democracy and Willingness to Accept Military Rule","media":{"sys":{"id":"77TLxZp1KpVxLTgxFWtmNR","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_05_01","description":"","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/77TLxZp1KpVxLTgxFWtmNR/90d2fdbe72c6122c93bf4dd0a78d09c1/web-Focus-Afrika-2023-05-Figure1.png","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/png"}},"altText":"Graph showing preferences for Democracy and Willingness to Accept Military Rule, 2018–2023"}}},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Source:"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" Author’s own elaboration, with population-weighted data from "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Representative data from the 2022/23 round of Afrobarometer surveys in Guinea, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali suggest that the recent wave of coups d’état was accompanied by a significant shift in public opinion (Figure 1). In these countries, public sentiment has become much more divided of late. Unconditional support for democracy is nowhere near the supermajority it was a few years ago, but it is still dominant in all Sahel countries except for Mali. It is possible that a greater sense of caution under the new regimes could have affected survey responses, but it would be wrong to dismiss this downward trend as mere measurement error."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Even prior to the coups d’état, citizens’ preference for democracy had never fully translated into a rejection of military rule. While the share of the population approving of military rule used to range between 10 and 35 per cent in most countries of the Sahel region, a majority of people in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali are now willing to accept it. Compared to a few years ago, this is a stark difference – albeit not an entirely new phenomenon."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Burkina Faso, for example, has always had a relatively high willingness to accept a military takeover of power. This may have to do with rather benign experiences of military rule under Thomas Sankara in the 1980s and after the 2014 revolution. Sankara’s regime pursued a social-revolutionary agenda, expanding education and basic services. In 2015, the military was celebrated as it intervened against a short-lived coup d’état and secured a swift transition to democracy."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"At the level of individual attitudes, there is considerable overlap between preferring democracy over any other regime type and being willing to accept military rule in times of crisis. In Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, this now appears to be the most prevalent sentiment. Democracy is still preferred, but military rule is simultaneously accepted (Figure 2)."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-4","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Figure 2. Acceptance of Military Rule Coexists with Preferences for Democracy"}]},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-block","data":{"target":{"sys":{"id":"pWeOVVzUJ7rpLlNlKQmzK","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_05_02","title":"Acceptance of Military Rule Coexists with Preferences for Democracy ","media":{"sys":{"id":"2bbDVUdZbfWwPZXpy6CdEN","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_05_02","description":"","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/2bbDVUdZbfWwPZXpy6CdEN/3d6fec75ed71949232d77e023196ed03/web-Focus-Afrika-2023-05-Figure2.png","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/png"}},"altText":"Acceptance of Military Rule Coexists with Preferences for Democracy "}}},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"heading-5","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Source:"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" Author’s own elaboration, with population-weighted data from "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":"."}]},{"nodeType":"hr","data":{},"content":[]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Multiple factors contribute to the Sahel countries’ willingness to accept military rule. Among them, sheer desperation plays an important role. The pressure being exerted on the societies of the Sahel is immense: armed conflict with jihadist groups, escalating ethnic and intercommunal conflict, rapidly rising food and commodity prices, a lack of employment opportunities for a fast-growing population, the internal displacement of millions of people, restricted mobility, growing isolation, and a lack of market access all threaten future well-being, while making the status quo unbearable. Under these conditions, the military juntas’ promise to restore order by force, unrealistic as it may be given the scale and depth of the problems faced, is appealing to many. If alternative visions are lacking, citizens will clutch at any straw that gives them hope."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b1"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b2"}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Military Rule Has Little to Offer to Society"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The factors that gave rise to the coups d’état and facilitated their acceptance in society are unlikely to contribute to their persistence in the long run. The main reason is that military governments are ill-positioned to address the problems of state-society relations that brought them to power in the first place."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b3"},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":". The disintegration of the Malian state has accelerated. Thus, far from protecting society against insecurity, the coups d’état appear to have made things worse for the majority of the population."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Blame avoidance by military leaders appears to have been an important contributing factor to the coups d’état. Both in Mali and Burkina Faso, the coups happened at a time when public dissatisfaction with the deteriorating security situation grew to a point where it became inevitable to hold military leaders accountable. The Malian army in particular has a long history of systemic corruption (MacLachlan et al. 2015), perhaps so much so that it resembled more a criminal organisation than a state institution, lacking any type of meaningful civilian oversight. In Niger, it was Brigade General Abdourahamane Tchiani’s imminent replacement that triggered the coup, but his presidential guard was eventually joined by elements within the army that were eager to get back at President Mohamed Bazoum’s civilian government."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Tragically, the civilian presidents of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger had long avoided security sector reform, possibly out of fear that it would trigger a military coup. In hindsight, their hesitation to address the dysfunctionality of the security sector may have made the coups inevitable, because incumbents failed to make any progress towards establishing civilian control over the military when they still had a fighting chance to do so. The evident lack of political resolve certainly did not help to increase to military leaders’ respect for civilian authority."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"With civilians removed from power and international support withdrawn, the blame for a failure to stabilise the situation will fall on the military juntas alone. In other words, being a military dictator in the Sahel is not a very attractive proposition right now. As public discontent grows, the military juntas will face the choice between either relying more and more on repression, disinformation, populism, and their symbolic alliance with Russia, or advancing the transition agenda back to civilian government. Thus far, the Malian junta appears intent on staying in power indefinitely, while the Burkinabé government has worked in both directions simultaneously. The Nigerien junta is still struggling to find its position. In Chad, interim president Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno broke his initial promise of a transition to civilian government by October 2022, and appears intent on having his power reaffirmed through elections in 2024, a move that has been criticised by the opposition."}]},{"nodeType":"heading-2","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"A Way Forward for Europe: Siding with Societies"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"As European governments are going through a phase of strategic reorientation in Africa and the Sahel, it will be important to learn from past mistakes. It will also be necessary to analyse dispassionately what Europe and the West actually have to offer in comparison to geopolitical rivals Russia and China. Since Europe as a whole is facing this question, governments should act collectively to find an answer."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In contrast to Russia and China, Europe’s history of colonial oppression and postcolonial interference in Africa is a massive liability. The weight of the colonialist past not only bears down on Franco–African relations, but to this day continues to profoundly affect how Africa is seen and thought of anywhere in Europe – and, of course, how Europe is seen in Africa. Europeans have yet to fully come to terms with the colonialist past. There might be no better opportunity than the current times of upheaval to confront that past and engage with African societies on different terms."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"A first and necessary change for European foreign policy in the Sahel is to focus on societies instead of governments. For too long, European assistance to the Sahel has fallen victim to its own operating logic – namely, pursuing dialogue with governments, yet without adequately considering the broken feedback loop between governments and the societies they rule over. Rarely, if ever, did Western governments look behind the façade of formal institutions and evaluate whether political processes were actually reflective of societal preferences. Nor were data collected on public perceptions. Scant efforts were made to explain donors’ and diplomats’ assumptions to the public, and the few deliberate efforts in this regard, such as French President Emmanuel Macron’s 2017 speech at the University of Ouagadougou "},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":", failed to strike a chord with the larger public."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"While European policymakers’ endeavours to promote better governance and democracy in the Sahel were certainly sincere, they primarily relied on reform dialogue with government counterparts behind closed doors rather than in the public sphere. Civil society partners were integral to Europe’s governance and democracy support, but more often than not they were recruited from the thriving pool of donor-dependent organisations that specialised in catering to their patrons’ preferences. As a result, governance dialogue ended up being about what European policymakers believed African societies needed, rather than about fixing the broken feedback loop between African governments and their own societies."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"The confrontational approach taken by the military governments in the Sahel has laid bare the ineffectiveness of such reform dialogue behind closed doors. Publicity-oriented actions such as the ban on all French non-governmental organisation activity in Mali and the expulsion of German Ambassador Dr. Gordon Kricke by the Chadian government suggest that the current rulers still have more to gain from dismantling their relations with Europe in public than from engaging in dialogue behind the scenes. Going forward, it will be in Europe’s best interest, then, to focus on rebuilding its public image and closing the feedback loop with the societies of the Sahel."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b4"}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Second, siding with societies requires full transparency towards the public in the Sahel countries about the assumptions and principles underlying Europe’s development, foreign, and security policy, allowing them to be critically evaluated by those directly impacted. It is not common for diplomats, military advisors, and development practitioners to reveal their own assumptions and knowledge gaps in public, for fear of criticism. Yet, public scrutiny is precisely the type of feedback European policymakers should invite in order regain credibility and prevent unintended consequences arising from their chosen courses of action. This is all the more important when recipient governments themselves are no longer accountable to society."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Third, siding with societies requires a willingness to give up on policy objectives or programmes that do not enjoy sufficient public support in the target society. This may be a bitter pill to swallow for policymakers who sincerely care about specific issues. However, in countries where most citizens no longer have a voice in politics, the perception of acting against a majority opinion – just because the government “bought in” to it – should be avoided at all costs. This will inevitably lead to greater humility in foreign and development policy. The experiences from involvement in Afghanistan and the Sahel have shown that not all of the West’s ambitions are realistic. Ensuring that policies and programmes have broad societal support in the target countries can be a way of preventing this type of overreach."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fourth and finally, Europe should steer clear of any actions or attitudes that would undermine civil society’s capacity to fight for their own rights, freedom, and democracy when the time is right. Per their organisational logic, donors and diplomats have a preference for stable, untroubled working relationships with de facto governments. They also have a tendency to co-opt civil society organisations. To counteract these tendencies, European policymakers should proactively avoid complicity with the status quo and screen their actions for potential unintended consequences. Protecting spaces for home-grown civil society is crucial for the future of the Sahel countries. At some point, the military regimes will have exhausted their public backing. It is important to be prepared for that moment and not to stand in the way of African societies taking their future into their own hands."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Considering the inherent fragility of the military governments in the Sahel and their dependence on public support and acquiescence, Europe’s greatest potential source of influence is to act in sync with African societies. By their very nature, neither the military regimes nor Russia have much to offer to societies besides populism, disinformation, and repression. It is up to Europe and the West to fill this gap, namely by closing the feedback loop with African societies."}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Until now, Europe’s collective performance in this respect has been disappointing. Widespread anti-French and anti-European sentiments are, in some ways, a logical consequence of that. The field of public diplomacy in the Sahel has been left almost entirely to Russia, which has perfected its influence through cynical manipulation strategies. The motives and assumptions underlying Europe’s and especially France’s engagement in the Sahel were never communicated in ways that appealed to broad societal majorities, nor were legitimate critiques raised by the public given the consideration they should have been given. "}]},{"nodeType":"paragraph","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Yet, Europe’s failure to side with African societies in the past does not have to constrain their future relations. With greater efforts to genuinely listen to African societies, to come to terms with the colonial heritage, and to offer greater transparency about its objectives and assumptions, European foreign policy could strategically reposition itself for the time when the current de facto regimes come to an end. This is best done by focusing on what the current military regimes, Russia, and China routinely fail to offer: policies and actions that are broadly accountable to society."}]}]}}}],["6DeFOtlz27abFpQ67fmmLz",{"sys":{"id":"6DeFOtlz27abFpQ67fmmLz","type":"Entry","contentType":"$36:145:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:sys:contentType"},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild Focus Afrika 2019_02 (Header)","title":"Bild Focus Afrika 2019_02 (Header)","altText":"Studenten im Sudan begrüßen sich.","copyright":"Reuters / Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah","media":{"sys":{"id":"pHVH2sW8IIajnx9SW3q2T","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild Focus Afrika 2019_02 (Header)","file":"$36:145:1:fields:pageIntroMedia:0:fields:media:file"}}}],["6FVjLxKDewWZMWPzpsPGIO",{"sys":{"id":"6FVjLxKDewWZMWPzpsPGIO","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2018_04_6","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b5"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b6"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b7"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Externe Unterstützung – ein sensibles Feld"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Während sich die Situation zivilgesellschaftlicher Organisationen in einigen Ländern (in den meisten westafrikanischen Ländern und einigen Ländern im südlichen Afrika) deutlich verbessert hat, haben andere Regierungen in Subsahara-Afrika neue Wege gefunden, die Zivilgesellschaft zu kontrollieren und einzuschränken. Seit den frühen 2000er-Jahren sind zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen mit einer zunehmenden Anzahl von restriktiven Maßnahmen und Politiken konfrontiert. Der zivilgesellschaftliche Raum in Subsahara-Afrika schrumpft, doch zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen passen sich an und finden neue Möglichkeiten, Kritik an der Regierung zu äußern."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b8"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$b9"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die G20-Gruppe unter der Präsidentschaft Deutschlands und ihr „Compact with Africa“ legt besonderen Wert auf private Investitionen in ausgewählten afrikanischen Ländern. Private Investitionen können das Wachstum fördern und damit die Grundlage für eine lebendige und unabhängige Zivilgesellschaft bilden. Die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen außerhalb des staatlichen Sektors trägt sicherlich dazu bei, die Zivilgesellschaft weniger anfällig für Bedrohungen oder Kooptierung durch die Regierungen zu machen. Auf lange Sicht könnte es Ressourcen für zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen freisetzen, die sowohl von Regierungen als auch von ausländischen Gebern unabhängig sind (Gyimah-Boadi 1996: 129-130). Kurzfristig sollten die politischen Impulse zur Mobilisierung privater Investitionen in afrikanische Länder jedoch nicht dazu führen, dass die politischen Entscheidungsträger die Situation von Menschenrechtsverteidigern in ihren Partnerländern vernachlässigen."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["6H0jimLJgEBmF9JBIo55Mn",{"sys":{"id":"6H0jimLJgEBmF9JBIo55Mn","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04 (Header)","title":"GIGA_Mar23_Nigeria Election_REUTERS_Abraham Achirga_RTSGX8EW","media":{"sys":{"id":"1fYfAuN5zjzo9Ncmx0OjFz","type":"Asset"},"title":"Bild GIGA Focus Afrika 2023_04 (Header)","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/1fYfAuN5zjzo9Ncmx0OjFz/a31375a656435bfaff6189cc3352afa7/GIGA_Mar23_Nigeria_Election_REUTERS_Abraham_Achirga_RTSGX8EW.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}},"altText":"Supporters of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) protest at the national headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to disapprove the outcome of the February 25 election result in Abuja, Nigeria March 6, 2023."}}],["6KvNP5kp9R4RjOUGwRKPJe",{"sys":{"id":"6KvNP5kp9R4RjOUGwRKPJe","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus LA 2021_04_2","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$ba"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Thus, public disaffection can directly or indirectly lead to impeachments, but impeachment processes may feed such disaffection when they are unable to provide the expected answers. Since 2020, the pandemic has revealed layers of popular complaints, some of them in connection with the poor and corrupt performance of governments and chief executives, others with long-term state incapacities to provide basic services. If properly used, impeachments could help to keep the executive accountable, although they would be insufficient as an instrument when the whole political system is being questioned. \r"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"This year, Latin Americans took the streets again in several countries, such as Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, and Guatemala, to express their discontent and even anger for various reasons, and often demanding the president’s resignation or impeachment. It is the task of observers and external actors, such as the United States or the European Union, to decode the underlying causes of each crisis and address it supporting constructive solutions that emphasise the accountability of political actors and institutions as well as responsive public policies.\r"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["6ZKCmy6CMFIaJGV1nES56b",{"sys":{"id":"6ZKCmy6CMFIaJGV1nES56b","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2019_02_3","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Von der sozioökonomischen Entwicklung profitieren nicht nur die Reichen, wie bereits die gesunkenen Armutsraten zeigen. Zahlreiche Untersuchungen belegen, dass die Größe der Mittelschichten steigt (z.B. Zizzamia, Schotte und Leibbrandt 2017; Wietzke und Sumner 2018). Diese Entwicklung, sofern sie sich nachhaltig bestätigen lässt, könnte weitere politische Entwicklungen begünstigen. Auch wenn es keinen Automatismus gibt, könnte die Mittelschicht eine wesentliche Triebkraft bei Prozessen von Demokratisierung und anderen gesellschaftlichen Fortschritten sein.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Politische Entwicklungen sind ebenfalls positiv: weniger Gewalt und Diktatur","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Auch im politischen Bereich zeigen sich grundlegende positive Trends. Wenig bekannt ist, dass Afrika keineswegs rein autokratisch regiert wird. Der Mythos eines autokratischen Afrika hält sich aber beständig. Der Blick wird dadurch erschwert, dass der große Wandel bereits auf das Ende des Kalten Krieges zurückgeht. Der „afrikanische Frühling“ hat bereits stattgefunden und war wesentlich nachhaltiger als sein arabisches Pendant. Während vor 1990 nur eine Handvoll Länder Mehrparteienwahlen durchführte und das Bild des Kontinents von Militärdiktaturen und Einparteiensystemen geprägt war (Bratton und van de Walle 1997; Bleck und van de Walle 2018), hat sich das Verhältnis umgekehrt. Mehr als 90 Prozent aller Länder sind formal Mehrparteiendemokratien und nur Eritrea, Somalia, Swaziland (bzw. neuerdings Königreich von ESwatini) und der seit dem Jahr 2011 unabhängige Südsudan haben bislang keine Mehrparteienwahlen abgehalten.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die demokratische Substanz variiert und keineswegs sind alle Mehrparteiensysteme auch wirklich demokratisch (vgl. auch Grauvogel und Heyl 2017). Nach Einschätzungen von üblichen Demokratieindizes wie z.B. Freedom House sind etwa 40 Prozent als autokratisch einzustufen. Etwa die gleiche Anzahl von Ländern bewegt sich im Graubereich. Nur der Rest ist auf einem Niveau, das in etwa liberaler Demokratie westlichen Zuschnitts entspricht. Der Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) unterscheidet dichotom zwischen Autokratien und Demokratien sowie verschiedenen Graden der Verwirklichung von Demokratie oder Diktatur. Für Anfang des Jahres 2017 zeigt sich, dass mehr als 55 Prozent aller betrachteten Staaten als demokratisch bezeichnet werden können und der Rest eher als autokratisch (BTI 2018). Dazu gehören Langzeitdemokratien wie Botswana und Mauritius, aber auch erfolgreiche Demokratisierungsfälle wie Benin, Namibia oder Südafrika.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Der Wandel lässt sich ebenso anhand anderer Indikatoren ablesen. Die oft als „Dinosaurier“ bezeichneten Präsidenten auf Lebenszeit sind keineswegs mehr unumstritten und sehen sich häufig mit Protesten konfrontiert. Zuletzt musste Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe nach 38 Jahren seinen Stuhl räumen. Die durchschnittliche Amtszeit amtierender Staatenlenker hat sich im Vergleich von 1989 zu 2018 erheblich verringert. Der durchschnittliche Unterschied von 10,5 (1989) vs. 8,8 Jahren (2018)","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"value":" verhüllt dabei den deutlichen Wandel hinsichtlich der Bedingungen des Machtzugangs. Kurze Amtsperioden gerade vor dem Jahr 1989 kamen häufig durch gewaltsame Machtwechsel wie Militärputsche und, weniger häufig, durch Siege in Bürgerkriegen zustande.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$bb","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Darüber hinaus sind dominante Parteiensysteme, in denen mehrere Parteien zugelassen sind, aber stets nur eine gewinnt, zunehmend in der Defensive. Langjährige dominante Parteiensysteme in Burkina Faso, Guinea und Gambia brachen im laufenden Jahrzehnt zusammen. In prinzipiell demokratischen Ländern wie Botswana und Südafrika gerieten sie unter wachsenden Druck der stärker werdenden Opposition (Basedau 2019; Sumich 2017). Es wird interessant zu beobachten sein, wie die Wahlen ausgehen, die im laufenden Kalenderjahr in beiden Ländern anstehen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Auf dem Rückzug in die Kasernen sind auch Militärs und Militärregime. Tarnuniformen und Ray-Ban-Brillen werden durch Anzüge oder traditionelle zivile Kleidung ersetzt. Militärputsche sind nicht verschwunden, aber ihre Zahl hat sich gegenüber vorherigen Dekaden deutlich verringert. Die Coups richten sich oft gegen langjährige Autokraten und die Putschisten beeilen sich, wie zuletzt in Burkina Faso und Simbabwe, zu zivilen Staatsformen zurückzukehren (Elischer 2015). Nur wenige Staaten, wie z.B. 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Einen maßgeblichen Anteil an der politischen Liberalisierung und Demokratisierung in den 1990er-Jahren haben Gewerkschaften, Studentenorganisationen und kirchliche Gruppen (Gyimah-Boadi 1996). Insbesondere die Zahl der Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NROs), die sich mit Menschenrechts- und Demokratiefragen beschäftigen, stieg stetig. Viele private, gemeinnützige und Freiwilligenorganisationen, die vom Staat unabhängig sind und im Folgenden unter „zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen“ zusammengefasst werden, überwachen das Verhalten von Regierungen und prangern Menschenrechtsverletzungen, Korruption und Demokratieverstöße an. 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Lebensjahres besonders relevant. Kinder gelten in erster Linie als Opfer der Gewalt. Aktuell berichtet das Kinderhilfswerk der Vereinten Nationen (UNICEF 2017), dass in Syrien zu den über 13 Millionen Menschen, die humanitärer Hilfe bedürfen, über fünf Millionen Kinder gehören. Das internationale Recht soll Kinder vor Gewalt schützen. So gilt die Zwangsrekrutierung von Kindern unter 15 Jahren als Kriegsverbrechen. Das Beispiel Syrien zeigt, dass die Durchsetzung internationaler Normen schwierig oder sogar unmöglich ist. Allein in den ersten beiden Monaten des Jahres 2018 starben im Krieg in Syrien über 1 000 Kinder."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$c1"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$c2"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Vor diesem Hintergrund ist die im Dezember 2015 vom UN-Sicherheitsrat einstimmig verabschiedete Resolution 2250 zu „Jugendlichen, Frieden und Sicherheit“ als Kehrtwende internationaler Debatten zu begrüßen. Hier werden junge Menschen nicht in erster Linie als Problem, sondern als wichtige Akteure für Sicherheit und Frieden sowie des konstruktiven Wandels betrachtet. Statt politische Panik vor gewalttätigen Jugendlichen zu schüren, fordert die Resolution"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Das formale Ende eines Krieges bietet trotz der damit verbundenen Herausforderungen zumindest theoretisch Chancen für die grundlegende Verbesserung der Möglichkeiten, Jugendliche in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft einzubinden. Die Erfahrungen der ersten Nachkriegsgeneration, d.h. derjenigen, die um das Kriegsende herum geboren wurden, in verschiedenen Ländern zeigt jedoch, wie lang der Weg zur Umsetzung der Resolution 2250 sein wird und welche zentralen Probleme es hierbei zu lösen gilt."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Jugendliche in Nachkriegsgesellschaften"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Bei allen Unterschieden haben Länder wie Bosnien-Herzegowina, Serbien, Kroatien, Mosambik, Südafrika, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Kambodscha und Ost-Timor eine Gemeinsamkeit: Nach Beendigung eines innerstaatlichen Krieges in den 1990er Jahren gibt es eine erste Nachkriegsgeneration der heute 15-25-Jährigen. Trotz zahlreicher Unterschiede bezüglich von Kriegsdauer oder den zugrunde liegenden Konflikten stellen sich identische Fragen: Welche Möglichkeiten für Teilhabe in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft haben Jugendliche? Welche Probleme sind für sie besonders gravierend? Gibt es Angebote der Inklusion und Gewaltprävention?"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Nachkriegsgesellschaften sind jung; der Anteil der Jugendlichen zwischen 15-25 Jahren an der Bevölkerung ist hoch (Grafik 1), weshalb es allein aufgrund dieser quantitativen Bedeutung wichtig ist, welche Chancen der Partizipation diese in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft haben."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["7CSrqoTFO39DYTXCWrSpA6",{"sys":{"id":"7CSrqoTFO39DYTXCWrSpA6","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Global_2018_03 ","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Blockierte Statuspassagen"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Der extrem schwierige Übergang von der Schule und Ausbildung in den Arbeitsmarkt stellt auch in Nachkriegsgesellschaften das Hauptproblem für Jugendliche dar. Die ökonomische Unabhängigkeit von den eigenen Eltern und der Familie ist eine Voraussetzung dafür, eine eigene Familie gründen zu können. Weltweit sehen sich junge Menschen hierbei zentralen Problemen gegenüber, ist doch ihre Arbeitslosenquote dreimal höher als die der Erwachsenen (ILO 2017). Auch in den drei untersuchten Ländern (El Salvador, Nicaragua und Südafrika) stellt der Mangel an Arbeitsplätzen, auf deren Basis den Jugendlichen der Schritt in die wirtschaftliche Unabhängigkeit gelingt, die größte Herausforderung dar. Diese Problematik kollidiert mit den Verbesserungen formaler Schulbildung, die allerdings nur am Rande als Grundlage für einen erfolgreichen Übergang in den Arbeitsmarkt gilt."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Jugendlichen selbst benennen diese Schwierigkeiten deutlich:"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Auch wenn die Jugendlichen in Nachkriegsgesellschaften besser ausgebildet sind als ihre Eltern, eröffnet ihnen das keine besseren Chancen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Die Jugendarbeitslosigkeit ist weiterhin hoch und persistent. Der Zugang zu solider Ausbildung (z.B. Sprach- und Computerkenntnisse) und die Chancen auf einen Job sind in der Stadt besser als in den ländlichen Regionen. Allerdings finden selbst Universitätsabsolventen oft nur weit unterhalb ihrer Qualifikation Jobs in den Freihandelszonen oder in Call Centern. Somit stellen nicht nur fehlende sondern auch gering bezahlte Jobs, die kaum ein Überleben ermöglichen, ein Problem dar, zumal viele Jugendliche Familienangehörige unterstützen müssen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Überlebensstrategien"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Jugendliche gehen sehr unterschiedlich mit diesen blockierten Statuspassagen um. In Anlehnung an A. O. Hirschman (1971) lassen sich drei Strategien unterscheiden:"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"EXIT: Jugendliche entziehen sich dem gesellschaftlichen Kontext entweder durch politische Apathie oder aber durch Migration (vom Land in die Stadt oder über die Landesgrenzen hinweg)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fehlende Optionen auf politische und ökonomische Integration können zu Verdrossenheit und Gleichgültigkeit führen. Ein vergleichsweise geringer Teil der Jugendlichen reagiert auf die tagtäglichen Probleme mit Apathie oder Drogenkonsum. Beides spielt vor allem in den Kontexten Südafrikas eine wichtige Rolle, die zudem von hoher Gewalt geprägt sind, aber auch in Nicaragua lassen sich solche Tendenzen beobachten. Im Umfeld evangelikaler Sekten oder von Jugendbanden entstehen teilweise Parallelgesellschaften, die auch als eine Art des Ausstiegs aus der Gesellschaft verstanden werden können. Der Wunsch, die eigene Lebenswelt physisch durch Migration zu verlassen, zeichnet sich in allen drei Ländern ab. Am stärksten ist dies im ländlichen Bereich und im Umfeld hoher Gewalt zu beobachten. Gleichzeitig hat Migration bei den Jugendlichen einen schlechten Ruf, weil Freunde und Familienmitglieder „zurück gelassen“ werden müssen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"VOICE: Jugendliche erhalten und nutzen Möglichkeiten autonomer Organisation zur politischen Beteiligung mit friedlichen Mitteln oder teilweise mit Gewalt."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Jugendlichen haben durchaus den Wunsch und die Möglichkeit, für Veränderungen einzutreten. Dies geschieht in unterschiedlichen Formen, zum Beispiel durch Proteste, aber auch in sozialen Medien, die in den Städten El Salvadors und Nicaraguas sowie in den städtischen weniger gewaltsamen Kontexten Südafrikas weit verbreitet sind. Auch künstlerische und kulturelle Ausdrucksformen werden für politische Statements genutzt. Schließlich kann auch Gewalt als Möglichkeit in Frage kommen, um Gehör zu finden. Dies gilt beispielsweise für El Salvador, wo sich die Jugendgangs zunehmend politisieren. Jugendliche in Südafrika machten deutlich, dass die Regierung erst dann aufmerksam wird, wenn es Gewalt gibt. Problematisch ist, dass die autonome Organisation von Jugendlichen von den Erwachsenen vielfach als Gefahr und Bedrohung des gesellschaftlichen und politischen Status quo wahrgenommen wird."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"LOYALTY: Jugendliche ordnen sich in bestehende Strukturen der Beteiligung ein oder diesen unter."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Der überwiegende Teil der Jugendlichen verhält sich trotz schwieriger Rahmenbedingungen in hohem Maß loyal. Die Wahlbeteiligung von Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen ist zwar geringer als die der Erwachsenen, aber immer noch hoch. Jugendorganisationen der politischen Parteien bieten jenseits ihrer spezifischen Programmatik Zugang zu Netzwerken, die unter Umständen auch für den Zugang zum Arbeitsmarkt wichtig sind. Dies drückt ein hohes Maß an Pragmatismus und Realitätssinn aus und steht nicht unbedingt für ein aktives unabhängiges Engagement für das Gemeinwesen. Allerdings zeigen sich hier Unterschiede zwischen Stadt und Land – Jugendliche im ländlichen lokalen Kontext sind vielfach sehr engagiert. In Südafrika lässt sich dies insbesondere in den Regionen feststellen, in denen der ANC (African National Congress) dominiert. Gleichzeitig zielen die Integrationsbemühungen der Politik vielfach auf die soziale Kontrolle der Jugendlichen ab."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Während die Jugendlichen in El Salvador ein relativ hohes Maß an Vertrauen in das politische System und seine Institutionen haben, stehen die jungen Menschen in Nicaragua und Südafrika den politischen Parteien, den Regierungen und staatlichen Institutionen eher kritisch gegenüber. Vertrauen gibt es entweder gar nicht oder nur im unmittelbaren Umfeld der Familie oder der lokalen Gemeinschaft. In Südafrika wird das abnehmende Vertrauen zum Teil sehr deutlich mit dem gerade zurückgetretenen Präsidenten Jacob Zuma in Verbindung gebracht. Verbesserungen seien von dieser Regierung nicht zu erwarten gewesen, Veränderungen hingegen nur durch einen Wechsel innerhalb der Regierungspartei ANC möglich."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$c3"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Partizipation von Jugendlichen auf Augenhöhe fördern"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die aktive Beteiligung und Einbeziehung junger Menschen ist eine zentrale Voraussetzung für Friedensentwicklung. Die von den Vereinten Nationen organisierten Konsultationen mit Jugendlichen zeigen, dass diese sehr präzise Vorstellungen davon haben, in welchem Rahmen sie einen Beitrag zu Frieden und Sicherheit leisten könnten ("},{"nodeType":"hyperlink"},{"nodeType":"text","value":")."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Für die arabische Welt weisen Jugendliche beispielsweise nicht nur auf die Gefahren der Rekrutierung durch nichtstaatliche Akteure und extremistische Gruppen hin, sondern betonen zugleich, dass es in diesen Staaten keine Möglichkeit gibt, den staatlichen Wehrdienst zu verweigern. Auch die Rolle der Medien, in denen Jugendliche oft als Problemgruppe und gefährliche gesellschaftliche Akteure stigmatisiert werden, wird als schwierig angesehen."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"In Kolumbien fand die nationale Konsultation vier Monate nach der Unterzeichnung des Abkommens zwischen kolumbianischer Regierung und FARC (damals Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, heute Fuerza Alternativa del Común) statt. Hier ging es im Februar 2017 zunächst darum, herauszufinden, was Jugendliche unter Frieden verstehen. Ihren Aussagen zufolge gehören dazu sozialer Wiederaufbau durch Versöhnung und Erinnerung, Gerechtigkeit und Garantie der Menschenrechte sowie Chancengleichheit. Werden die Jugendlichen nach Sicherheit gefragt, sprechen sie weitgehend dieselben Themen an: Gerechtigkeit und Menschenrechte werden vor der Gewährleistung persönlicher Sicherheit, der Demilitarisierung staatlicher Institutionen und dem sozialen Wiederaufbau genannt."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Vereinten Nationen haben in den letzten Jahren eine wichtige Rolle dabei gespielt, die aktive Beteiligung von Jugendlichen in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu thematisieren. Insgesamt dominieren zwei teilweise zusammenhängende Themen die internationale Debatte: erstens die Gewaltprävention, d.h. Politikansätze, die der Beteiligung von Jugendlichen an unterschiedlichen Formen der individuellen oder kollektiven Gewalt vorbeugen. Zweitens die Verbesserung der Ausbildung junger Menschen mit dem Ziel, ihnen den Weg von der Schule in den Arbeitsmarkt zu erleichtern. Allerdings werden Jugendliche hier wie in den im Jahr 2015 verabschiedeten "},{"nodeType":"text","value":"Sustainable Development Goals"},{"nodeType":"text","value":" (SDGs) vor allem als Zielgruppe im Bereich Bildung und Beschäftigung erwähnt und nicht als autonome Akteure anerkannt. Kein Zweifel, die ökonomische Unabhängigkeit junger Menschen ist wichtig. Dies gilt für die SDGs bei Bildung und lebenslangem Lernen (SDG 4) und inklusives Wachstum und Beschäftigung (SDG 8) ebenso wie für die Einbeziehung von Jugendlichen in die Gewaltprävention, wo gleichfalls Bildung und Training im Vordergrund stehen. Diese Ansätze fußen implizit und teilweise auch explizit auf der Annahme, dass Jugendliche, die weder in Schulen oder anderen Ausbildungsstätten noch im Arbeitsmarkt integriert sind, von Gewaltakteuren leicht zu mobilisieren sind."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Mit dieser Sichtweise werden Jugendliche stigmatisiert bzw. es dominiert der Focus auf die Veränderung der Jugendlichen selbst, d.h. ihre Bildung soll den Bedürfnissen des Arbeitsmarktes entsprechen und ihr Verhalten gegebenen Konventionen folgen. Die oben skizzierten Erfahrungen in den Nachkriegsgesellschaften zeigen jedoch deutlich, dass der Zugang zum Arbeitsmarkt nicht nur von den individuellen Fähigkeiten und der „Passgenauigkeit“ von Ausbildung abhängig ist, sondern zugleich von politischen und gesellschaftlichen Machtverhältnissen. Auch das Verhalten Jugendlicher, das Erwachsene oft als unangemessen oder wenig respektvoll empfinden, ist nicht per se asozial."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Es greift zu kurz, Jugendliche nur als Zielgruppe und Adressaten bzw. Objekte internationaler, nationaler oder lokaler Politiken zu betrachten und nicht als eigenständige Akteure. Jugendliche haben eigene Vorstellungen, wie ihre persönliche Zukunft und die der Gesellschaften, in denen sie leben, aussehen soll. Die Reaktion der Erwachsenen in Staat und Gesellschaft auf diese Vorschläge entscheidet maßgeblich darüber, ob Jugendliche für ihre Anliegen und Problemlagen Verbündete in der Gesellschaft finden und ob sie ernst genommen werden."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Entscheidend ist letztlich, nicht die Jugendlichen sondern die gesellschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen so zu verändern, dass junge Menschen mit ihren Wünschen, Bedürfnissen und Zukunftsvorstellungen als selbstständige Akteure in Politik und Gesellschaft agieren können. Der letzte Weltjugendbericht (UN DESA 2015) spiegelt viele Erfahrungen von Jugendlichen in Nachkriegsgesellschaften wider und fordert deshalb unter anderem die stärkere Mitbestimmung und Repräsentation junger Menschen, vor allem auch junger Frauen, in Parlamenten und anderen Institutionen der Entscheidungsfindung. Der Entwurf für den im April 2018 erscheinenden Fortschrittsbericht zu „Jugend, Frieden und Sicherheit“ nimmt solche Überlegungen ernst und fordert, jungen Menschen zuzuhören, einen positiven Ansatz für Sicherheit zu entwickeln und junge Menschen bei der Friedensentwicklung nicht nur auf der lokalen Ebene einzubeziehen (Simpson 2018)."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$c4"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["7CakvsQhUvMH5gfpiKjTi9",{"sys":{"id":"7CakvsQhUvMH5gfpiKjTi9","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Tabelle GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_3","title":"Tabelle GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_3","altText":"Tabelle Länderübersichten mit Details zu den Protesten und ihren Gründen","copyright":"Freiheitsniveau basierend auf dem Freedom House Index 2018; BIP-Daten aus World Development Indicators, Serie GDP per capita (current USD) und GDP growth (annual %); Zahlen zu Konfliktopfern aus dem Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED): Fatalities in all Event Types 2017 & Fatalities Actor Type „Protesters“ 2017","caption":"Tab. 1\nLänderübersichten mit Details zu den Protesten und ihren Gründen","media":{"sys":{"id":"6G5hmjD9od3d5YPLzo2E9Y","type":"Asset"},"title":"Tabelle GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_3","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/6G5hmjD9od3d5YPLzo2E9Y/6c656a910f9d5eff70beead05ba99958/Tabelle1_web.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["7DxMxkutrMaS2iDZv4DUTJ",{"sys":{"id":"7DxMxkutrMaS2iDZv4DUTJ","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Global_2018_01_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die UN-Resolution 2250 „Jugendliche, Frieden und Sicherheit“ von Dezember 2015 erkennt erstmals die Bedeutung der aktiven Beteiligung von Jugendlichen in der Friedensentwicklung an. Ihre Umsetzung wird allerdings lange dauern. Die Analyse der Beteiligung junger Menschen in Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft in Nachkriegsgesellschaften offenbart blockierte Statuspassagen ins Erwachsenenleben. Jugendliche werden nicht als eigenständige Akteure ernst genommen, sondern mitunter sogar kriminalisiert."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Fazit"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Forderungen der Resolution 2250 sind ein erster wichtiger und entscheidender Schritt zur Inklusion junger Menschen im Umfeld von Gewaltkonflikten. Verbessern wird sich für Jugendliche aber nur dann etwas, wenn sie als gleichberechtige Partner bei der Lösung von Zukunftsfragen ernst genommen werden und ihnen von den jeweiligen Regierungen und gesellschaftlichen Akteuren jenseits von Strategien der eigenen Machtsicherung Partizipation ermöglicht wird."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["7HJQgi3jP9Zj5pBx8A4HBx",{"sys":{"id":"7HJQgi3jP9Zj5pBx8A4HBx","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"mediaImageAudio"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Grafik Focus Nahost_2020_7_1","title":"Grafik Focus Nahost_2020_7_1","altText":"Grafik zu Vertrauen in ägyptische Institutionen: 2011 vs. 2019","copyright":"Arab Barometer (2020). Daten für Ägypten entstammen den Wellen II und V","caption":"Abb. 1\nVertrauen in ägyptische Institutionen: 2011 und 2019 im Vergleich","media":{"sys":{"id":"2JDUa3M8cxpVtTMSmnMOdq","type":"Asset"},"title":"Grafik Focus Nahost_2020_7_1","file":{"url":"//images.ctfassets.net/jlhgjubhhjuo/2JDUa3M8cxpVtTMSmnMOdq/ede2d42007c8a1ce00b8589bc86306e1/Nahost-2020-07-Figure1-de_Kontur.jpg","details":{"image":{"width":2400,"height":1350}},"contentType":"image/jpeg"}}}}],["7I5kZZtHGl9PwdP5veb3Zr",{"sys":{"id":"7I5kZZtHGl9PwdP5veb3Zr","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2017_7_1","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Zwischen Aufbruch und Ernüchterung"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$c5"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Wie steht es heute – etwa 25 Jahre nach den großen politischen Umbrüchen – um die Demokratie in Afrika? Die neuere Demokratieforschung betont, dass die Eigenheiten und spezifischen Konstellationen jedes Landes wichtig sind, um den jeweiligen Werdegang erklären zu können (Haggard und Kaufman 2016a). Nichtsdestotrotz lassen sich nach Nic Cheeseman (2015) grob drei Gruppen unterscheiden:"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die erste Gruppe umfasst stabile Demokratien. Dazu gehören demokratische Frühentwickler wie Botswana und Mauritius, wo politischer Wettbewerb und Mitbestimmung seit der Unabhängigkeit fest im politischen Leben verankert sind. Zudem haben sich seit den 1990er Jahren in Ländern wie Benin, Ghana und Namibia demokratische Praktiken etabliert. Dort finden regelmäßig Wahlen statt, die Justiz genießt ein Mindestmaß an Unabhängigkeit, die Medien können sich kritisch äußern und die Opposition hat reale Chancen auf die Macht."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Eine zweite Gruppe besteht aus Staaten, in denen sich autoritäre Herrschaftsformen verfestigt haben und die Opposition, sofern vorhanden, massiver Repression ausgesetzt ist. Länder wie Kamerun, Ruanda und Tschad werden seit Beginn der 1990er Jahre kontinuierlich von Autokraten regiert. Obwohl die Länder der ersten und der zweiten Gruppe sich vergleichsweise geradlinig autoritär oder demokratisch entwickelt haben, gibt es einzelne Ausreißer: So wurde das bis dahin als demokratische Erfolgsgeschichte angesehene Mali im Jahr 2012 durch einen Putsch destabilisiert; in Gambia wurde 2016 der Diktator Jammeh nach 22 Jahren an der Macht überraschend abgewählt."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die dritte Ländergruppe, die unter anderem Burkina Faso, Mosambik, Simbabwe und Tansania umfasst, bewegt sich in der Grauzone zwischen Demokratie und Autokratie. Charakteristisch für diese Regime sind zwar regelmäßige, aber keinesfalls freie und faire Wahlen. Die Opposition hat daher keine Aussicht auf einen Machtwechsel. Dabei ist die Entwicklung dieser Ländergruppe uneinheitlich: Einige Staaten befinden sich auf dem Weg zu mehr politischem Pluralismus, während sich in anderen autoritäre Tendenzen verstärken. Aber anders als in der Forschung zunächst angenommen, stellt diese Grauzone nicht nur ein Übergangsstadium dar. Die Verbindung von formal demokratischen Institutionen und autoritären Praktiken hat in vielen Ländern stabile Mischformen hervorgebracht."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$c6"}],"data":{}}]}}}],["7JRB8F1kM6Q8U9DeTmzOG",{"sys":{"id":"7JRB8F1kM6Q8U9DeTmzOG","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Literatur GIGA Focus 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Most of them issued stay-at-home orders or imposed lockdowns, quarantines, curfews, and restrictions on movement. Public gatherings, including elections, were delayed or cancelled, limits to freedoms of assembly, association, and speech were imposed, and democratic institutions were constrained in their work. Although many of these measures conformed to expert recommendations on containing the virus, they also provided chief executives with a window of opportunity to bolster their own power.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Conceptualising the Personalisation of Executive Power","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"While not every chief executive made international headlines, there are signs of a global increase in executive personalisation. This is particularly the case across countries in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and of sub-Saharan Africa. We define the personalisation of executive political power as a process in which the chief executive’s discretionary power over political decisions increases at the expense of that of other political actors. 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Similarly, not all autocracies are highly personalised, as strict forms of collective leadership provide effective constraints on the chief executive in military juntas and party regimes. Finally, the results of the process of personalisation of executive power might be long-lasting or rather short-lived, depending on the institutional and structural contexts as well as on the ability of other actors to undo changes made by personalising leaders.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Changing Constraints on Executive Power","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Worries about the accumulation of political power in the hands of the executive had been voiced long before the current pandemic struck. At least since the middle of the first decade of the new century, post-Cold War optimism about the victory of liberal democracy had been supplanted by warnings of an end to the most recent wave of democratisation, the stagnation of democratic development in many recently democratised countries, and the return of authoritarianism. One typical aspect of this alleged crisis of democracy is the erosion of mechanisms that constrain the power of the executive, and thus lead to the expansion of the chief executive’s discretionary power over political decisions. 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Der Einfluss Europas und der USA in Afrika ändert sich. Chinas und Russlands Engagement schafft neue Möglichkeiten, aber auch neue Abhängigkeiten. So stellen sich auch für Europa wichtige Fragen: Wohin entwickelt sich Afrika? Und wie lassen sich die Beziehungen mit Afrika gestalten?

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Constitutional rules that restrict the number of terms that the president of a given state may serve are typical of political systems with directly elected presidents: namely, presidential and semi-presidential modes of government. In such systems, terms are fixed and parliaments typically cannot vote the president out of office during their incumbency. Term limits were first adopted in Latin America in the early nineteenth century, and remained a rare institution outside this region until the middle of the twentieth one.","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"value":" However when (semi-)presidential systems of government began to diffuse globally and the direct election of the president thereafter became de rigueur (Elgie 2016), particularly with the third wave of democratisation in the 1980s and 1990s, many countries resumed or adopted presidential term limits. This rule is perhaps the most important contribution of Latin America to the theory and practice of liberal democracy (Corrales 2018: 194).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"$ce","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In practice, the term-limit rule has not always been an efficient instrument to stop the president from seeking office again and again. Two indicators of this difficulty can be cited here. For one thing, the rule does not look the same everywhere. There is not such a thing as a term-limit rule, and different rule types have potentially different implications. At the extreme ends of the spectrum, there are those rules that prohibit any presidential re-election and alternately those that allow for indefinite re-election. However term-limit rules may take other forms too, as the next section will illustrate. Moreover, when combined with the length of the presidential term, the range and level of potential restrictions on presidential power vary even further. It is obvious that longer terms in unlimited re-election settings are not a genuine constraint on power, but the effects of other rule types and rule combinations on presidential power are more difficult to assess.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"A second indicator of this difficulty, meanwhile, is that compliance with the rule and rule enforcement also noticeably vary across both countries and time. In fact, there is a tension between rulers and rules because term limits test the political actors’ amenability to accepting constraints on their personal interest in remaining in power. The lack of compliance is a highly personalised scenario wherein rulers prevail over rules (Baturo 2014). It manifests in varied forms and intensities, such as rule manipulation, circumvention, or alteration. The excessively high rate of institutional change indicates that the rule does not manage to prevail over fluctuations in the distribution of power and in preferences (Brinks, Levitsky, and Murillo 2019). Therefore, a certain rule stability is necessary to genuinely constrain power.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Since the late 1990s, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa have been swept by a corrective amendment fever that today accumulates to approximately 60 approved reforms and additional failed attempts. The recurrent reforms of the term-limit rule may not come as a surprise given that personalism – either in the form of “Big Man rule” or ","nodeType":"text"},{"value":"continuismo","nodeType":"text"},{"value":" – is a widespread political feature. However, the comparison of the two world regions in the last few decades has also revealed that strong executives often fail to eradicate this rule for once and for all. A more common pattern is the opposition, civil society, and the president themself engaging in debates on term limits, making the story of presidential term limits a never- ending one.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"The Many Faces of Presidential Term-Limit Rules","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-2"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Rule types and their reform paths are embedded in related countries’ individual trajectories and historical contexts, but a cross-regional overview also shows some general trends too. At the beginning of 2020, two concrete facts can be established. First, presidential term limits are the rule rather than the exception in both of these regions. Looking at the countries which are presidential democracies, only four out of 39 African constitutions and four out of 19 Latin American ones do not provide for any limitation on the president’s time in office.","nodeType":"text"},{"nodeType":"embedded-entry-inline"},{"value":" Second, constitutions in the two regions offer a variety of rule types that differ with regards to the number of terms a president is allowed to serve and regarding the possibility of serving further ones at some point in the future. The most restrictive rule is that of a single presidential term without any possibility of re-election – the textbook case is Mexico, with its famous sexenio – which facilitated the predominant party’s rule for about a century and did not change after the democratic transition. The immediately next type is also that of a single term, but includes the possibility of re-election after a term away from office – Chile and Panama are cases in point here. Other rules limit the total number of terms to two or three (e.g. Benin and Ecuador), while the last rule type limits the initial number of presidential terms but allows for the return to the executive office after a term break (e.g. Brazil and Mozambique).","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Beyond these generalities, there are some regional patterns. Latin America has the widest variety of term-limit rules, since all mentioned types can be found there. However the dominant type is that of the restriction to one term, with 11 cases out of 19 – coming either with the possibility of a further non-consecutive term or not. Rule diversification came with time in Latin America, as during the 1980s and until Peru’s constitutional reform in 1993 presidential term limits allowing for immediate re-election were absent from constitutional designs. Time also brought a relaxation of the rule in many cases, and even the removal in four countries.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"In contrast, the standard term-limit design in Africa is the two-term. Today, 28 African constitutions provide for a two-term limit. Seven African constitutions allow for additional non-consecutive terms. Among them are mainly former Portuguese or Spanish colonies, where the conditions for non-consecutive terms are clearly spelled out. Conversely, Burundi and Senegal introduced recently some ambiguity into their constitutions that allows for varying interpretations and makes possible a return to power after a one-term break.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["singleton-divider",{"sys":{"id":"singleton-divider","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"divider"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Horizontal rule (GIGA Focus)"}}],["vEDK3Hwyp2cTCNWuyAzlw",{"sys":{"id":"vEDK3Hwyp2cTCNWuyAzlw","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text Focus Afrika 2019_01_1.Seite","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Während die sozioökonomische Entwicklung Afrikas langsam voranschreitet und demokratische Prozesse sich in einigen afrikanischen Ländern vertiefen, bleiben in der Region insgesamt zahlreiche Herausforderungen bestehen. Die internationalen Beziehungen auf dem Kontinent sowie mit Europa und anderen Weltregionen zeigen ebenfalls ein gemischtes Bild. Wir präsentieren eine Auswahl von zehn Entwicklungen in Afrika, die im Jahr 2019 eine wichtige Rolle spielen werden.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"},{"data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"nodeType":"unordered-list"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Fazit","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"heading-3"},{"data":{},"content":[{"value":"Die vorliegende Analyse einer Reihe entscheidender Entwicklungen für das Jahr 2019 rechtfertigt verhalten optimistische, aber dennoch gemischte Aussichten für die Region. Afrikanische und externe Akteure wie die Europäische Union und Deutschland sollten deshalb freie und faire Wahlen sicherstellen. Wo reformorientierte Akteure identifiziert werden können, sollten diese beherzt unterstützt werden. In Fällen wie Kamerun scheint präventive Diplomatie notwendig. Die Reform der Afrikanischen Union und anderer regionaler Organisationen, sowie entsprechender friedenserhaltender oder -schaffender Operationen, verdienen ebenfalls Unterstützung. Freihandelszonen und ausgewogenere Handelsbeziehungen mit Afrika sind eine wichtige Ergänzung von Geberinitiativen. Deutschlands Mitgliedschaft im Sicherheitsrat der Vereinten Nationen wird auch für Afrika von Bedeutung sein, allerdings mit begrenzten Auswirkungen.","nodeType":"text"}],"nodeType":"paragraph"}]}}}],["vk8THgRzmcxV6gGaQ5fU3",{"sys":{"id":"vk8THgRzmcxV6gGaQ5fU3","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Literatur Focus Afrika 2019_02","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"headline":"Literatur","contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":""}],"data":{}}]}}}],["widgniu9AT4jk6ArvKFDw",{"sys":{"id":"widgniu9AT4jk6ArvKFDw","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Literatur Focus Global 2021_02","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"headline":"Literatur","contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"unordered-list","content":[{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"},{"nodeType":"list-item"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":""}],"data":{}}]}}}],["ylLS9rE26cgNHDrt5AhvE",{"sys":{"id":"ylLS9rE26cgNHDrt5AhvE","type":"Entry","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"content"}}},"fields":{"internalName":"Text GIGA Focus Afrika_2018_3_3","backgroundColour":"White","showMoreButton":false,"showHeadlineLeft":false,"contentAlignment":"Left","content":{"nodeType":"document","data":{},"content":[{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$cf"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$d0"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"heading-2","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Wege aus der Krise"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Die Aufstände in den Ländern Zentralafrikas nehmen seit Ende des Jahres 2017 zu. Sie könnten sowohl zu bewundernswertem Wandel führen, wie zuletzt in Burkina Faso, aber auch zu neuen lang anhaltenden Krisenherden wie in der DRK. Um die Lage zu verstehen, sollte die zentralafrikanische Region aufgrund ihrer engen Verbindungen und vielen Gemeinsamkeiten zunächst als Ganzes betrachtet werden. Politische Stagnation, schlechte Lebensumstände und viele Konfliktherde befeuern die derzeitigen Aufstände. Es gilt drei Dinge zu beobachten. Erstens, inwiefern deutet sich ein Wandel in der Regierung oder zumindest der Art der Regierungsführung an? Zweitens, welche Anstrengungen werden unternommen, um ökonomische Ressourcen im Sinne der breiten Bevölkerung zu verwenden? Drittens, wie wird Gewalt auf allen Seiten angewandt, um Ziele durchzusetzen?"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"$d1"}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Während alle Länder gemeinsam haben, dass sie Klientelismus herunterfahren müssten, um breite ökonomische Entwicklung zu fördern, sind die Rahmenbedingungen sehr verschieden: Die ZAR gilt als das ärmste Land der Welt, während Gabun und Äquatorialguinea im Verhältnis zu ihrer Größe über beachtliche Rohstoffeinnahmen verfügen. Um die Probleme des Rentierstaats anzugehen, gilt es politische und ökonomische Kooperation einem möglichst breiten Spektrum an Akteuren anzubieten und nicht lediglich den herrschenden Eliten. Für die besonders armen Länder, wie die ZAR, die DRK und den Tschad, kommt hinzu, dass externe ökonomische Hilfen nicht gleichzeitig die nationalen Regime aus der Verantwortung entlassen dürfen. Zu häufig stellen diese sich langfristig auf die Substitution von Staatsaufgaben durch internationale Hilfen ein, wodurch sie sich gegen Protest von innen immunisieren."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Zuletzt gilt es die Konfliktlage eingängig zu analysieren, um Gewaltakteure möglichst von friedlichen Demonstranten zu differenzieren. Insgesamt gilt es hierbei, mehr Druck auf die Regierungen auszuüben, auch wenn das zu kurzfristig gesehene Interessen Europas (Migrationsverhinderung, pauschale Terrorismusbekämpfung) untergräbt. Gleichzeitig müssen die Kontakte zu politischen, zivilen und ökonomischen Akteuren außerhalb der Regierung verstärkt werden, um auf mögliche Machtteilungsabkommen oder gar einen vollwertigen Regimewechsel vorbereitet zu sein. Die größte Gefahr liegt darin, durch lukrative Entwaffnungsprogramme und Machtteilungsabkommen überhaupt erst die Anreize zum Aufnehmen der Waffen zu geben (Tull und Mehler 2005). Im Gegenteil sollten internationale Deeskalationsprogramme friedliche Akteure einbinden und belohnen. Letztendlich bleibt die Hauptverantwortung bei den Menschen vor Ort. Ihre selbstständigen Ansätze gilt es durch internationale Intervention vorsichtig und gezielt zu fördern."}],"data":{}},{"nodeType":"paragraph","content":[{"nodeType":"text","value":"Mira Demirdirek leistete für diesen GIGA Fokus im Rahmen eines studentischen Werkvertrages wahrlich herausragende Recherchearbeit, indem sie die Ereignisse der jeweiligen Länder detailliert untersuchte und Datensätze zu den Geschehnissen auswertete. Hierfür möchte der Autor ihr ausdrücklich danken."}],"data":{}}]}}}],["e7c2d41b-a439-4082-bfe6-a66022042591",{"sys":{"id":"e7c2d41b-a439-4082-bfe6-a66022042591","contentType":{"sys":{"type":"Link","linkType":"ContentType","id":"pureContent"}}},"fields":{"title":"Prof. Dr. Thomas Richter","path":"/de/das-giga/team/richter-thomas/","dataTeaser":{"sort":"Richter","type":"Staff","mails":["thomas.richter@giga-hamburg.de"],"phones":["+49 (40) 42825-528"],"tagline":["Lead Research Fellow","Head of Research Programme \"Accountability and Participation\""],"pureType":{},"blueprint":"PERSON","socialMedia":[{"link":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4812-0725","service":"orc"},{"link":"https://bsky.app/profile/thomaserichter.bsky.social","service":"bluesky"},{"link":"https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Thomas-Richter-10","service":"researchgate"},{"link":"https://de.linkedin.com/in/thomas-richter-623a9a16b","service":"linkedin"},{"link":"https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=8LT1MScAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate","service":"google_scholar"},{"link":"https://twitter.com/thomaserichter","service":"twitter"}],"researchRegion":"

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The Study of Term Limits in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons on Democratisation and Autocratisation

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