Matthias Basedau / Thomas Richter

Why Do Some Oil Exporters Experience Civil War But Others Do Not? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Net Oil-Exporting Countries

GIGA Working Paper, No. 157, January 2011

Abstract
According to quantitative studies, oil is the only resource that is robustly linked to civil war onset. However, recent debates on the nexus of oil and civil war have neglected that there are a number of peaceful oil‐rentier states, and few efforts have been spent to explain why some oilexporting countries have experienced civil war and others have not. Methodologically, the debate has been dominated by research using either quantitative methods or case studies, with little genuine medium‐N comparison. This paper aims to fill this gap by studying the conditions of civil war onset among net oil exporters using (crisp‐set) Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA). Considering a sample of 44 net oil exporters between 1970 and 2008, we test conditions such as oil abundance (per capita) and dependence, the interaction of ethnic exclusion and oil reserve locations (overlap) as well as the type of political regime (polity). Our results point to a combination of necessary and sufficient conditions that has been largely ignored until now: low abundance is a necessary condition of civil war onset. Two pathways lead to civil war: first, a combination of low abundance and high dependence and, second, a combination of low abundance and the geographical overlap of ethnic exclusion with oil reserve areas within autocracies.

GIGA-Forschung zum Thema

Related Research Tabs

GIGA AutorInnen

Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau

Direktor des GIGA Instituts für Afrika-Studien
Redaktion GIGA Focus Afrika

Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau ist Direktor des GIGA Instituts für Afrika-Studien und Professor für Politikwissenschaft an der Universität Hamburg. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte sind politische Institutionen und bewaffnete Konflikte, beides im besonderen Zusammenhang mit Ethnizität, natürlichen Ressourcen und Religion. Er ist zudem Regionalkoordinator für West- und Zentralafrika beim Bertelsmann Transformation Index.

Dr. Thomas Richter

Senior Research Fellow
Redaktion GIGA Focus Nahost

Dr. Thomas Richter ist Senior Research Fellow am GIGA Institut für Nahost-Studien und Mitglied in den Forschungsschwerpunkten „Politische Verantwortlichkeit und Partizipation“ und „Macht und Ideen“ des GIGA. Seine aktuellen Forschungsthemen beinhalten autoritäre Regime, Rentierstaatstheorie, die Repression von Zivilgesellschaft und Politikdiffusion.

Aktuelle Publikationen der AutorInnen

Thomas Richter

Oil and the Rentier State in the Middle East

in: Raymond Hinnebusch / Jasmine Gani (eds.), The Routledge Handbook to the Middle East and North African State and States System, Routledge, forthcoming

Matthias Basedau

Party Systems in Africa

in: Nic Cheeseman (ed.), The Oxford Encyclopedia of African Politics, Oxford: Oxford University Press, forthcoming

Matthias Basedau / Jonathan Fox / Christopher Huber / Arne Pieters / Tom Konzack / Mora Deitch

Introducing the "Religious Minorities at Risk" Dataset

Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 25, 2019, 4

Martin Beck / Thomas Richter

Vom Überfluss zur Knappheit: Die arabischen Golfstaaten unter Druck

GIGA Focus Nahost, 06/2019

Lisa Hoffmann / Matthias Basedau / Simone Gobien / Sebastian Prediger

Universal love or one true religion? Experimental evidence of the ambivalent effect of religious ideas on altruism and discrimination

American Journal of Political Science, online first, 2019