Carlo Koos / Matthias Basedau

Does Uranium Mining Increase Civil Conflict Risk? Evidence from a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Africa from 1945 to 2010

GIGA Working Paper, No. 205, September 2012

Abstract
We employ a two‐tier spatiotemporal analysis to investigate whether uranium operations cause armed conflict in Africa. The macrolevel analysis suggests that – compared to the baseline conflict risk – uranium ventures increase the risk of intrastate conflict by 10 percent. However, we find ethnic exclusion to be a much better predictor of armed conflict than uranium. The microlevel analysis reveals that uranium‐spurred conflicts are spatiotemporally feasible in four countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Namibia, Niger and South Africa. We find strong evidence in the case of Niger, and partial evidence in the case of the DRC. Namibia and South Africa do not yield substantial evidence of uranium‐induced conflicts. We conclude that uranium may theoretically be a conflictinducing resource, but to the present day empirical evidence has been sparse as most countries are still in the exploration phase. Considering that the coming years will see 25 African countries transition from uranium explorers into producers, we strongly suggest that our analysis be revisited in the coming years.

GIGA-Forschung zum Thema

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GIGA AutorInnen

Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau

Direktor des GIGA Instituts für Afrika-Studien
Redaktion GIGA Focus Afrika

Prof. Dr. Matthias Basedau ist Direktor des GIGA Instituts für Afrika-Studien und Professor für Politikwissenschaft an der Universität Hamburg. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte sind politische Institutionen und bewaffnete Konflikte, beides im besonderen Zusammenhang mit Ethnizität, natürlichen Ressourcen und Religion. Er ist zudem Regionalkoordinator für West- und Zentralafrika beim Bertelsmann Transformation Index.

Aktuelle Publikationen der AutorInnen

Matthias Basedau

Party Systems in Africa

in: Nic Cheeseman (ed.), The Oxford Encyclopedia of African Politics, Oxford: Oxford University Press, forthcoming

Matthias Basedau / Vita Roy

Sleep, Bark, or Bite: Do Natural Resources Make the Difference Regarding Peaceful or Violent Conflict?

International Area Studies Review, 23, 2020, 1, 73-92

Matthias Basedau

Immer noch ein wichtiger Faktor: das Militär in Afrika

GIGA Focus Afrika, 05/2020

Lisa Hoffmann / Matthias Basedau / Simone Gobien / Sebastian Prediger

Universal love or one true religion? Experimental evidence of the ambivalent effect of religious ideas on altruism and discrimination

American Journal of Political Science, 64, 2020, 3, 603-620

Matthias Basedau

Book Review: Africanistan - Development or Jihad? by Serge Mihailof

Zeitschrift für Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, 2019