Militaries and Democratic Backsliding Since the End of the Cold War
Militaries and Democratic Backsliding Since the End of the Cold War
Since the Cold War's end, militaries have played varied roles in democratic backsliding - from leading coups to supporting or resisting autocratic moves. This project systematically explores how armed forces shape the erosion, collapse, or defense of democracy worldwide. DFG, 2025-2028
Institut für Politische Wissenschaft, Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg
Forschungsfragen
Studying all cases of democratic backsliding since 1991, we will answer three key questions:
1. What roles have militaries played in democratic backsliding episodes since 1991?
2. What explains these different roles?
3. What are the implications of such roles for the outcomes of democratic backsliding?
Beitrag zu internationaler Forschung
This project will make a contribution to both research and real-world efforts to defend democracy. It will generate new knowledge through peer-reviewed articles, a book, and the global MILBACK dataset that will be made publicly available for further study. To support those working on the frontlines of democracy - whether at home or abroad - the project aims at translating its research insights into practical tools. Finally, the project invests in the future by supporting a doctoral dissertation, several Master’s theses, and the early career development of a postdoctoral researcher.
Forschungsdesign und Methoden
To answer these questions, we will:
1. conceptualize the different military roles in episodes of democratic backsliding;
2. create the original MILBACK dataset on military roles in all 54 democratic backsliding episodes since the end of the Cold War;
3. construct a game-theoretical model to explain military roles in democratic backsliding and test it empirically in a systematic multimethod design relying on the MILBACK data;
4. assess the impact of different forms of military involvement on the erosion, collapse, or resilience of democracy during and after backsliding episodes through a multi-methods research design including inferential statistics, comparative case studies and process-tracing analysis.
Südkoreas Selbstputschversuch im Jahr 2024 markierte die schwerste demokratische Krise seit Jahrzehnten. Der kurzzeitige Ausnahmezustand legte tiefe Risse in der zivil-militärischen Kontrolle offen und zeigte zugleich die bemerkenswerte Resilienz demokratischer Institutionen.
This study identifies three distinct military roles in Asia’s autocratization since 1991—explaining them through a new model that combines military interests, praetorian legacy, veto powers, and ruling party strength.
