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  • The (In)stability of Presidential Term Limits in Africa and Latin America: Assessing the Impact of Tenure-Rule Reforms on the Political Regime

The (In)stability of Presidential Term Limits in Africa and Latin America: Assessing the Impact of Tenure-Rule Reforms on the Political Regime

German Institute for Global and Area Studies | Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien

German Institute for Global and Area Studies | Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien

DEEN
  • Forschung & Transfer
    • Der Auftrag des GIGA
    • Vergleichende Regionalforschung
    • Politikberatung und GIGA Berlin Büro
    • Ausgewählte Themen und Länder
    • GIGA-Expert:innen
    • Forschungsprojekte
  • Publikationen
    • Referierte Artikel
    • Bücher
    • Beiträge
    • Forschungsdaten
    • GIGA Focus
      • GIGA Focus Einzelreihen
      • GIGA-Focus-Themenreihen
    • GIGA Working Papers
    • GIGA Journal Family
  • Veranstaltungen
    • Konferenzen und Workshops
    • GIGA Talk
    • GIGA Forum
  • Das GIGA
    • Leitung und Gremien
    • Regionalinstitute
      • GIGA Institut für Afrika-Studien
      • GIGA Institut für Asien-Studien
      • GIGA Institut für Lateinamerika-Studien
      • GIGA Institut für Nahost-Studien
    • Forschungsschwerpunkte
      • Politische Verantwortlichkeit und Partizipation
      • Frieden und Sicherheit
      • Globalisierung und Entwicklung
      • Globale Ordnungen und Außenpolitiken
    • GIGA Bibliothek
    • Fachabteilungen
    • GIGA Doktorandenprogramm
    • Team GIGA
    • Kontakt / Anfahrt
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  • Karriere
  • Beschreibung
  • Forschungsfragen
  • Beitrag zu internationaler Forschung
  • Forschungsdesign und Methoden
  • Vorläufige Ergebnisse
  • Projektbezogene Publikationen
  • Weitere Inhalte zum Thema

Many countries in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa (re-)introduced term limits during the third wave of democratization as a democratic safeguard against personal rule and power abuses. Since then, term limits have been contested by a plethora of reform attempts. In this project, we take a longitudinal view on these sometimes recurrent reforms and analyse their repercussions for institutionalization, democratization and autocratization.
DFG, 2017-2021

Team

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Elena Martínez Barahona

Markus Böckenförde

Julia Leininger

Timothy Power

Leitung

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Logo der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Forschungsfragen

Presidential term limits are a constitutional restriction on the number of terms that the directly elected head of state may serve in presidential or semi-presidential systems of government. Many countries of the world adopted or reinstated term-limit provisions during the third wave of democratisation that swept the world in the 1980s and 1990s, demonstrating the widespread belief that limiting presidential stays in power strengthens democracy. However, term-limit rules were later challenged, and in some cases they were even modified recurrently. In fact, the subsequent contestation of the term-limit rule became a worldwide phenomenon that often led to deep politico-institutional crises.

The project investigates the following research questions:
- What is the impact of presidential term limit reforms on the type and quality of political regimes in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa?
- How did the prevalence of term limit rules develop in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa since the third wave of democratisation?
- How were term limit reforms undertaken? What institutions and actors intervened in the process of term limit reforms? How transparent and democratic was the reform process?
- How does the quality of the reform process influence the political regime?

Beitrag zu internationaler Forschung

The project undertakes the first systematic cross-regional analysis of the influence of term-limit reforms on the type and quality of the political regime. The two regions, Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, comprise together the majority of presidential and semi-presidential regimes in the world.

A further innovation of the project is the examination of the variety of term-limit reforms, thus the prolongation of presidential terms as well as the shortening of presidential terms. Moreover, the paths of the reform processes are examined in detail to grasp how the character of the process influences the political regime

Projektbezogene Publikationen

Sammelband | Routledge | 2023

Contested, Violated but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

This book generates new empirical and theoretical insights by bringing together the scholarship on Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, providing context-bound intraregional research as well as long-term perspectives for the study of term-limit change. The chapters were originally published as a special issue of Democratization.

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Democratization | 2022

Contested, Violated but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa: Introduction to Special Issue

Die Begrenzung der Amtszeit von Präsidenten als institutionelles Mittel zur Sicherung der Demokratie wurde von Amtsinhabern immer wieder angefochten. Die Autorinnen dieses Artikels argumentieren, dass das Zusammenführen von Wissen über Lateinamerika und Subsahara-Afrika neue empirische und theoretische Erkenntnisse liefert.

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Democratization | 2022

Sequences of Presidential-Term-Limit Reforms: Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa

In diesem Artikel werfen die Autor:innen einen Blick auf die Reformen der Amtszeitbeschränkungen für Präsidenten in Lateinamerika und Subsahara-Afrika. Viele Länder haben die Maßnahme als demokratischen Schutz vor Machtmissbrauch (wieder) eingeführt; seitdem wurde sie immer wieder in Frage gestellt.

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Democratization | Taylor and Francis | 2022

Special Issue: Contested, Violated but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

The term limits of presidents as a crucial institutional feature to safeguard democracy have often been contested by incumbents. The authors of this special issue argue that bringing together knowledge on Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa provides new empirical and theoretical insights.

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Kapitel in Sammelband | 06.2019

Senegal (1970-2016): presidential term limit reforms never come alone

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Forschungsdesign und Methoden

The project applies a mixed-methods research design:
- construction of an original and comprehensive dataset of term limit reforms in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa
- sequence analysis and multivariate regressions
- comparative case studies

Vorläufige Ergebnisse

Term limit reforms are commonly seen as a risk to democracy, since stable institutions are considered essential for democratic consolidation, while term-limit eliminations are associated with processes of autocratization. To empirically investigate reform paths across regions we apply the method of sequence analysis. We find that the stability of term-limit rules is more prevalent than expected, but that this stability sometimes masks institutional ineffectiveness in authoritarian regimes. Rule instability induced by frequent reforms can be part of a piecemeal path towards autocratization, but it can also reflect an open-ended tug of war between authoritarian tendencies and democratic resistance.

Weitere Inhalte zum Thema

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

GIGA Event | 12.10.2020 - 13.10.2020

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, Online event, Hamburg Organisation: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Organisator:in), Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Organisator:in)


Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limit Reform Attempts: A Sequence Analysis

GIGA Event | 12.10.2020 - 13.10.2020

Presidential Term Limit Reform Attempts: A Sequence Analysis

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, Online event, Hamburg Organisation: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Vortragende:r), Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limits: Comparing Reforms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

Sonstiges | 01.01.2019

Presidential Term Limits: Comparing Reforms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

CEDLA Lectures, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Organisation: Centre for Latin American Research and Documentation, University of Amsterdam Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

In this lecture, Dr. Mariana Llanos takes a longitudinal view on presidential-term-limit reforms in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa since the third wave of democratization.

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Senegal (1970-2016): Presidential Term Limit Reforms Never Come Alone

Konferenz | 27.06.2018 - 30.06.2018

Senegal (1970-2016): Presidential Term Limit Reforms Never Come Alone

Tagung der Vereinigung für Afrikawissenschaften in Deutschland, Leipzig Organisation: Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Vortragende:r)

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Secuencias de reelección presidencial en América Latina

Konferenz | 06.02.2019

Secuencias de reelección presidencial en América Latina

Coloquio Iberoamericano, Heidelberg Organisation: Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches öffentliches Recht und Völkerrecht Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Impeachment Threat and Presidential Instability in Comparative Perspective

Konferenz | 24.05.2019 - 27.05.2019

Impeachment Threat and Presidential Instability in Comparative Perspective

LASA2019, Boston Organisation: Latin American Studies Association Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limits: The Reform Processes in Africa and Latin America

Konferenz | 22.08.2018 - 25.08.2018

Presidential Term Limits: The Reform Processes in Africa and Latin America

ECPR General Conference, Hamburg Organisation: European Consortium for Political Research Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r), Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Vortragende:r)

In Panel P377 "Reforms of the Presidency and Their Repercussions on Regime Trajectories"

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

GIGA Event | 12.10.2020 - 13.10.2020

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, Online event, Hamburg Organisation: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Organisator:in), Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Organisator:in)


Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limit Reform Attempts: A Sequence Analysis

GIGA Event | 12.10.2020 - 13.10.2020

Presidential Term Limit Reform Attempts: A Sequence Analysis

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, Online event, Hamburg Organisation: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Vortragende:r), Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limits: Comparing Reforms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

Sonstiges | 01.01.2019

Presidential Term Limits: Comparing Reforms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

CEDLA Lectures, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Organisation: Centre for Latin American Research and Documentation, University of Amsterdam Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

In this lecture, Dr. Mariana Llanos takes a longitudinal view on presidential-term-limit reforms in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa since the third wave of democratization.

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Senegal (1970-2016): Presidential Term Limit Reforms Never Come Alone

Konferenz | 27.06.2018 - 30.06.2018

Senegal (1970-2016): Presidential Term Limit Reforms Never Come Alone

Tagung der Vereinigung für Afrikawissenschaften in Deutschland, Leipzig Organisation: Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Vortragende:r)

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Secuencias de reelección presidencial en América Latina

Konferenz | 06.02.2019

Secuencias de reelección presidencial en América Latina

Coloquio Iberoamericano, Heidelberg Organisation: Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches öffentliches Recht und Völkerrecht Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Impeachment Threat and Presidential Instability in Comparative Perspective

Konferenz | 24.05.2019 - 27.05.2019

Impeachment Threat and Presidential Instability in Comparative Perspective

LASA2019, Boston Organisation: Latin American Studies Association Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limits: The Reform Processes in Africa and Latin America

Konferenz | 22.08.2018 - 25.08.2018

Presidential Term Limits: The Reform Processes in Africa and Latin America

ECPR General Conference, Hamburg Organisation: European Consortium for Political Research Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r), Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Vortragende:r)

In Panel P377 "Reforms of the Presidency and Their Repercussions on Regime Trajectories"

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

GIGA Event | 12.10.2020 - 13.10.2020

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, Online event, Hamburg Organisation: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Organisator:in), Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Organisator:in)


Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limit Reform Attempts: A Sequence Analysis

GIGA Event | 12.10.2020 - 13.10.2020

Presidential Term Limit Reform Attempts: A Sequence Analysis

Contested, Violated, but Persistent: Presidential Term Limits in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, Online event, Hamburg Organisation: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) Dr. Charlotte Heyl (Vortragende:r), Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

Dr. Charlotte Heyl

Associate

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America

Presidential Term Limits: Comparing Reforms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

Sonstiges | 01.01.2019

Presidential Term Limits: Comparing Reforms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa

CEDLA Lectures, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Organisation: Centre for Latin American Research and Documentation, University of Amsterdam Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos (Vortragende:r)

In this lecture, Dr. Mariana Llanos takes a longitudinal view on presidential-term-limit reforms in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa since the third wave of democratization.

Prof. Dr. Mariana Llanos

Lead Research Fellow / Editor Journal of Politics in Latin America