The Situation in Israel and Iran: The Essentials in Brief
GIGA Insights | 23/06/2025
The Situation in Israel and Iran: The Essentials in Brief
The conflict between Israel and Iran reached a new peak with the recent war, and the United States has actively entered the picture with the shelling of nuclear facilities. Here you'll find an overview, background information, and the assessments of the GIGA’s Middle East scholars vis-à-vis both the current situation in the region and the Iranian nuclear programme.
24 June 2025
The mutual shelling of targets in Israel and Iran that began on 13 June 2025 with Israel’s war of aggression, inimical to international law, marked an escalation of the conflict between the two countries in the wake of Iranian air strikes on Israel in 2024, which also flouted international law. Despite the ceasefire announced by the United States today, the situation remains tense and volatile. Much will depend on whether both sides hold to the ceasefire, how the situation within Iran develops, and what the future holds for the Iranian regime. Regime change via a military putsch by the Revolutionary Guard, state collapse, or a civil war are all possible scenarios under discussion. At this point, European states are present only as spectators in their attempts to probe diplomatic solutions.
Closely observing the current developments, GIGA scholars Prof. Dr. Eckart Woertz, Diba Mirzaei, and Dr. André Bank shed light on the backdrop:
How would you describe the current situation between Israel and Iran? And what consequences will the US intervention have?
The Iranian regime has a bad hand to play. Entering into negotiations to curtail its nuclear programme would be judged by allies and adversaries alike as a sign of weakness and capitulation. Before the recent ceasefire, there was fear of escalation in the form of attacks on US bases in the region or on sites of oil production in Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, but this has not come to pass. That would have led to more attacks on Iran and put the Iranian regime in peril. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” strategy, in which influence in the region is exerted via proxies, is in tatters in the wake of Israel’s military triumphs against the Lebanese Hezbollah and the toppling of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. The Iranian regime is unlikely to be toppled during war-time conditions and in the face of aerial attacks alone. It is possible that Iranians will circle the wagons, a so-called “rally-around-the-flag” effect. This, however, will hold only temporarily. The chasm between the people and the regime – and the mistrust that goes with it – is too vast for the Iranian people to view the regime as a legitimate custodian in the long term. Once the fighting is over and the regime returns to its aggressive approach towards supposed dissidents, the ongoing economic and political problems will continue to loom: in the medium term, the regime may be faced with critical questions and see new protest dynamics forming.
What historical and political factors led to the nuclear conflict with Iran?
After having had good relations with Israel during the Shah’s reign, Iran has taken an antagonistic stance towards Israel since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, supporting groups openly hostile to Israel, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Starting in the early 2000s, the United States and Europe began to fear that Iran sought to develop nuclear weapons. This initially led to international sanctions and negotiations that concluded in 2015 with the signing of the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement was unilaterally terminated in 2018 by Donald Trump in his first term, which led to Iran ramping up its uranium enrichment dramatically in the years following.
What effects is the current conflict between Israel and Iran having on stability and security in the region as a whole?
If Iran had reacted to Israel’s and the United States’ latest escalations with escalations of its own, for instance by attacking US bases and oil facilities in the Gulf, or by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter of sea-based oil shipments flows, the effect would have been further upheaval in the region and in global markets. But Iran itself exports its oil via the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to utilising the Strait to import essential goods such as foodstuffs – the regime would have done damage to itself by blocking the Strait. Such extreme scenarios have been warded off by the ceasefire, but the situation remains volatile.
How are other countries and actors in the region influencing the conflict? Can a firestorm be prevented?
The Middle East is already engulfed in a regional firestorm, as the current Israel–Iran war is taking place against the backdrop of the ongoing war on Gaza and heavy violence in the West Bank. The timing of Israel’s surprise attack on Iran on 13 June could be read as an attempt to distract the world from the catastrophic humanitarian situation faced by civilians in the Gaza Strip and the resulting international criticism of the Benjamin Netanyahu government, which has increased somewhat since February 2025.
Beyond the Israel–Palestine dimension, there has been a massive exchange of fire between Israel and Yemeni Houthi rebels. Israel has also resumed its bombardment of Lebanon. Finally, Israel is also maintaining its illegal occupation of both the UN buffer zone east of the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, which it took from Syria in the context of the fall of the dictator Assad on 8 December 2024. During the most recent fighting, Syria’s southern neighbour Jordan shot down Iranian drones and rockets with the help of its defence system, developed by the United States. Fortunately, only few injuries were recorded.
Overall, the influence of Arab countries on the current regional dynamic is notably constrained in the face of the near total military dominance of Israel and the by and large uncritical support for Tel Aviv on the part of the US and EU.
What realistic approaches do you see to solving the conflict between Israel and Iran?
A lot depends on the United States. There is no real way around taking the JCPOA approach. Iran would have to credibly restrict its nuclear programme to preclude military uses; in return, it would have its sanctions eased.
Much will also depend on what camp comes out on top within Iran. If a faction comes to power that was already critical of negotiations, believing them to weaken Iran, there is a danger that in the medium term, Iran will acquire nuclear weapons and exit the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), akin to North Korea in 2003.
Do you foresee repercussions for the Gaza conflict?
The Gaza war has been pushed to the margins of the media due to the recent war between Israel and Iran. Israel’s starvation warfare tactics have led to a catastrophic humanitarian situation that has potential to worsen. Netanyahu and particularly the rightwing extremists in his party, such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, have openly called for the expulsion of Palestinians and the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip. The credibility of German and European foreign policy will suffer greatly in the Global South if Europe does not firmly reject these plans, not to mention if it colludes with them.
Das iranische Nuklearprogramm zurückwerfen und Regime-Change erreichen: Das sind die erklärten Gründe für den israelischen Präventivkrieg – mit geringen Erfolgsaussichten, sagt Historiker Eckart Woertz. Eine atomare Eskalation hält er für wahrscheinlicher.
Neben der Zerstörung des iranischen Atomprogramms geht es der israelischen Regierung um die weitere Schwächung der ohnehin isolierten Regierung in Teheran. Im weiteren Nahen Osten ist das Ziel Tel Avivs die totale militärische Dominanz. Dr. André Bank im Interview mit Sebastian Schreiber.
Teherans Unterstützer taumeln oder sind – wie Syriens früherer Machthaber Assad – gefallen. Nach Ansicht von Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest ist die Regionalpolitik des islamischen Regimes weitgehend gescheitert.
Trump’s ceasefire may have paused hostilities, but U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites risk backfiring. With limited damage reported, the attacks could push Tehran to abandon strategic ambiguity and pursue clear nuclear deterrence. The non-proliferation norm is fraying.
Regime change in Iran remains unlikely. Unlike Iraq or Libya, its religious-political system is deeply entrenched, and external pressure often reinforces elite unity. Experts warn: it’s not a finish line — it’s a fuse.
After 12 days of conflict, a fragile Trump-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds—but just barely. With no trust or enforcement mechanisms, experts say it’s a pause, not peace. All eyes now turn to Iran’s next nuclear and diplomatic moves.
Iran’s response to recent U.S. strikes will hinge on how the regime balances national pride with strategic survival, CNN Portugal reports. While Tehran insists on its right to retaliate, officials signal that any action will be carefully calibrated in scope and timing to project strength without triggering wider escalation.
This paper reviews the history of involvement of the two countries in these regions, and analyses how policies of confrontation in both countries have changed and developed over the different historical periods.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
The Peace and Security Research Programme uses state-of-the-art methods to study the causes of violent conflict and the conditions that foster sustainable peace. In addition, it investigates sanctions and interventions as key tools in international security policy amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Die Zerstörung von Atomanlagen und Luftverteidigung trifft den Iran hart. Noch schlimmer ist für die Mullahs aber, dass der israelische Geheimdienst ihr Regime unterwandert hat, argumentiert Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest.
In der Nacht zu Samstag startete Israel seine erneute Großoffensive im Gazastreifen – und möchte damit endgültig seine Kriegsziele erreichen. Ob das gelingt und wie es mit der Befreiung der Geiseln weitergeht. GIGA-Forscher Houssein Al Malla im Interview mit dem Tagesspiegel.
Sanction evasion, economic and military collaboration, and narratives of resistance against a US-led liberal global order bind Russia and Iran together. To thwart their continued and intensified power projection, the West needs to strengthen ties with other key actors in the Middle East and Eurasia.
The Iranian government has turned to the development of knowledge as a power projection tool. In Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s speeches from 2011-20, “knowledge based” was among the most frequently used terms when addressing topics such as “jihad” and “economic resistance".
Ausgerechnet Donald Trump könnte Iran abermals an den Verhandlungstisch bringen, trotz tiefen Misstrauens auf beiden Seiten. Beide Regierungen brauchen gerade einen Erfolg – aus unterschiedlichen Gründen, erklärt Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest.
This article seeks to identify ways in which the foreign policy power hierarchy inside the Islamic Republic of Iran can be explained. It uses high-level diplomatic meetings as observable evidence in a novel analytical framework to identify the scope of competition and hierarchies in foreign policy decision-making processes. Results reveal that diplomatic activities of key foreign policy decision makers did not noticeably diverge.
In November 2024, Israel’s Knesset advanced the controversial Spyware Law, expanding therewith the police’s surveillance powers. Critics argue it threatens democracy, undermines civil liberties, and lacks proper oversight, sparking fierce debate over its implications for freedom and security.
The war in Gaza does not bode well for the EU and the US as it 1) disrupts Western infrastructure corridors, 2) distracts policymakers from China and Indo-Pacific strategies, and 3) undermines the West as the self-proclaimed upholder of the “rules-based order.”
This paper reviews the history of involvement of the two countries in these regions, and analyses how policies of confrontation in both countries have changed and developed over the different historical periods.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
The Peace and Security Research Programme uses state-of-the-art methods to study the causes of violent conflict and the conditions that foster sustainable peace. In addition, it investigates sanctions and interventions as key tools in international security policy amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Die Zerstörung von Atomanlagen und Luftverteidigung trifft den Iran hart. Noch schlimmer ist für die Mullahs aber, dass der israelische Geheimdienst ihr Regime unterwandert hat, argumentiert Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest.
In der Nacht zu Samstag startete Israel seine erneute Großoffensive im Gazastreifen – und möchte damit endgültig seine Kriegsziele erreichen. Ob das gelingt und wie es mit der Befreiung der Geiseln weitergeht. GIGA-Forscher Houssein Al Malla im Interview mit dem Tagesspiegel.
Sanction evasion, economic and military collaboration, and narratives of resistance against a US-led liberal global order bind Russia and Iran together. To thwart their continued and intensified power projection, the West needs to strengthen ties with other key actors in the Middle East and Eurasia.
The Iranian government has turned to the development of knowledge as a power projection tool. In Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s speeches from 2011-20, “knowledge based” was among the most frequently used terms when addressing topics such as “jihad” and “economic resistance".
Ausgerechnet Donald Trump könnte Iran abermals an den Verhandlungstisch bringen, trotz tiefen Misstrauens auf beiden Seiten. Beide Regierungen brauchen gerade einen Erfolg – aus unterschiedlichen Gründen, erklärt Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest.
This article seeks to identify ways in which the foreign policy power hierarchy inside the Islamic Republic of Iran can be explained. It uses high-level diplomatic meetings as observable evidence in a novel analytical framework to identify the scope of competition and hierarchies in foreign policy decision-making processes. Results reveal that diplomatic activities of key foreign policy decision makers did not noticeably diverge.
In November 2024, Israel’s Knesset advanced the controversial Spyware Law, expanding therewith the police’s surveillance powers. Critics argue it threatens democracy, undermines civil liberties, and lacks proper oversight, sparking fierce debate over its implications for freedom and security.
The war in Gaza does not bode well for the EU and the US as it 1) disrupts Western infrastructure corridors, 2) distracts policymakers from China and Indo-Pacific strategies, and 3) undermines the West as the self-proclaimed upholder of the “rules-based order.”
This paper reviews the history of involvement of the two countries in these regions, and analyses how policies of confrontation in both countries have changed and developed over the different historical periods.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
The Peace and Security Research Programme uses state-of-the-art methods to study the causes of violent conflict and the conditions that foster sustainable peace. In addition, it investigates sanctions and interventions as key tools in international security policy amid rising geopolitical tensions.
