Abstract

The recent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have starkly demonstrated that modern warfare demands digital transformation. As Ukrainian officials warned, in modern-day conflicts countries must “digitise or die.” This imperative resonates across the Middle East, where regional powers are each pursuing their own distinct models of technological transformation. This policy study examines how emerging defence technologies are fundamentally reshaping strategic dynamics and security architectures across the Middle East, with particular focus on the pursuit of technological sovereignty by Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Three key domains are analysed: drone warfare evolution; artificial intelligence integration; and cyberwarfare capabilities. Demonstrated is how these developments are transforming traditional power balances and military doctrines. Regional powers are transitioning from foreign military dependency to indigenous production capabilities by taking distinct strategic approaches. The proliferation of autonomous weapon systems (AWS), AI-enhanced cyber operations, and modular drone technologies has changed the defining factors for “military capabilities,” enabling both state and non-state actors to project power at unprecedented speed. These developments are creating new both competition and collaboration opportunities across the region. As regards European security interests, strategic challenges and opportunities are respectively identified. Findings indicate that future conflicts will increasingly feature digitalised warfare and AWS integration, fundamentally altering engagement parameters and challenging international security frameworks.