What can be Learned from the Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Handling of Trump?

For the most part, Mexico has been spared Trump’s tariffs; Mexico’s leader, Claudia Sheinbaum, has been praised by Trump; and Trump has directed the brunt of his ire elsewhere. Mexico’s president has been credited for averting the worst and aptly handling the US administration’s demands and threats. The international press has lauded Sheinbaum as the “Trump whisperer” who has built a “constructive dialogue with Trump” and provided a blueprint to be followed. What is the secret of Sheinbaum’s (seemingly) successful approach to handling Trump, and what, if anything, can be learned from it?

Sheinbaum’s Balancing Act 

First, President Sheinbaum has been taking measures to placate Trump by making concessions and providing him with visible, short-term policy wins. Regarding migration, the Mexican government has stepped up efforts to police its borders and stop migrants, deploying thousands of members of the National Guard. Regarding drugs, in a reversal from the previous policy of “hugs not bullets,” the Mexican government is going after drug traffickers, with arrests and seizures substantially increasing over the past few months. In a legally dubious move, 29 drug traffickers were moved to the US to stand trial, sidestepping lengthy legal procedures and appeals in Mexico. Regarding the economy, the Mexican government is taking measures to restrict Chinese investment and manufacturing, seen by the US as a means of evading tariffs on China and entering the US market through the backdoor. In sum, Sheinbaum has been adopting policies that benefit the US and matter to Trump. While they come at some cost to Mexico, they are intended to spare the country as much as possible from larger costs and uncertainties that could stem from policies Trump has threatened to impose on Mexico. 

Second, Sheinbaum is balancing a dual rhetoric of not offending the US and its president while defending Mexico’s pride and interests. For the most part, Sheinbaum has maintained her cool and a cordial relationship with Trump. She has not been goaded into responding in kind to provocations or engaging in verbal tit-for-tat. An illustration of this dynamic is how differently the United States’ respective northern and southern neighbours have reacted to Trump’s provocations – such as his renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, and his referring to Canada as the 51st US state and to its then-prime minister Justin Trudeau as its governor. Whereas Trudeau escalated the verbal sparring with Trump, Sheinbaum has remained calm and carried on. She initially insisted on the Gulf of Mexico maintaining its name (crucially, in Mexico not the US, which would have been a losing battle with purely symbolic effects) and proceeded to move on quickly, saving face without antagonising Trump. In general, Sheinbaum has signalled that she is standing up for Mexico and not backing down, though these have not been “costly” signals. For instance, she has proposed a constitutional amendment to protect Mexican sovereignty. While this amendment makes little real-world difference, it sends the message that Mexico will not cave and cannot be bossed around. Furthermore, Sheinbaum has been working on legitimating her policies – for example, by organising a mass gathering as a show of support for her policies and communicating the next steps to be taken. As her government walks a fine line, rhetoric and messaging both for an internal and external audience (of one) have been crucial to Sheinbaum’s approach to handling Trump.

Limits and Lessons 

So far, this high-wire act – defending without offending and making concessions without being seen as appeasing – has been working for Sheinbaum. Not only has Trump spoken surprisingly highly of Sheinbaum, but Sheinbaum is also vastly popular in Mexico. However, in the medium to long term, the contradictions and inescapable realities underlying this relationship and approach might come to the fore. Between popularity abroad and at home, something might give: either the Mexican public or Donald Trump could sour on Sheinbaum. For one thing, there is a limit to what and how much the Sheinbaum administration can offer the US – and it remains to be seen whether what the Mexican government can offer is what the US administration really wants. In addition, Mexico will be materially affected by the fallout of Trump’s policies. The Mexican economy is already slipping into a recession, reeling from the effects of uncertainty and the prospects of tariffs, which will limit Sheinbaum’s leeway to pursue redistributive policies and might test her popularity. 

What, then, can be learned from Sheinbaum’s approach and relationship to Trump? Some of her success is sui generis and difficult to replicate. Sheinbaum’s ability to offer concessions and set the domestic agenda is based on her popularity and secure control of both houses of Congress. There is little credible domestic opposition to her in general or her course of action vis-à-vis the United States specifically, giving her ample room to manoeuvre. Yet, other aspects of Sheinbaum’s approach and reactions to Trump’s challenges and provocations might provide insights for others elsewhere. If the goal is to be on Trump’s good side, appeasing rather than antagonising him seems key. Mexico’s example reveals that concessions do not necessarily have to be meaningful to make a difference, as the Trump administration appears often just as interested in the optics and the act of “winning” as in what the “win” consists of, entails, or accomplishes. Recognising just how much style matters over substance for managing Trump (and, consequently, the relationship with the US) is key, and it emphasises the strategic discursive and performative moves political leaders make both at home and abroad.