The Closest of Neighbours: What the Second Trump Presidency Means for Mexico

When the United States sneezes, the world catches a cold they say. But no country in the world is closer to and more interdependent with the US than Mexico – and Trump’s impending return to the presidency will be more than just a sneeze. During his campaign, the southern neighbour was Trump’s bête noire, with current threats of mass deportations, blanket tariffs, or a cross-border "war on drugs" being aimed squarely at Mexico. As such, the incoming Trump administration poses formidable challenges for Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Despite her landslide victory in the 2024 elections, Sheinbaum and her government will also be tested by domestic issues – from controversial judicial reform, to the lack of thorough fiscal reform, to persistent criminal violence.  

On the eve of Trump’s inauguration, this GIGA Talk will highlight the challenges facing Mexico, assessing the impact of the pressures coming from the new US administration and their southern neighbour’s readiness to resist them.

Speakers:  Dr. Jonas von Hoffmann is a Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies. Previously he was a Visiting Professor at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE) in Mexico. 

Dr. Catalina Pérez Correa is an Associated Researcher at the Center for Constitutional Studies of the Supreme Court of Mexico (SCJN). Previously she was a Professor at CIDE, UNAM, and a Visiting Researcher at Yale University. She is a Columnist for El Universal. 

Discussants:  Ambassador (ret.) Peter Tempel was Germany’s Ambassador to Mexico from 2018 to 2022.  

Moderator:  Prof. Dr. Bert Hoffmann is Co-Director of the GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies and Head of the GIGA Berlin Office.