The Fall of Assad: Rebels Take Power in Syria

4 December 2024

A New Escalation of Violence in Syria: Is the End of Assad’s Rule Near?

Syria – Within just a few days, the Islamist rebels of Hay'at Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS) and allied groups have captured large swathes of Syrian territory, including many parts of the city of Aleppo, which has a population over a million strong. The rebels advanced via pick-up trucks and motorcycles, using drones for both surveillance and the launching of attacks. 

The rebels’ aim was to get back on the offensive after a long period of being forced to defend their territory in Idlib. Several hundred civilians were killed in these rebel attacks as well as counterattacks by the armed forces of dictatorial Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Russian air force, which is linked to him; thousands more were forced to flee. Nevertheless, the weakening of Assad has been welcomed by many Syrians.  

According to GIGA expert Dr. André Bank, whose has continued to analyse the situation in Syria ever since the outbreak of civil war in 2011, HTS took advantage of a period of regime weakness: “The Assad regime and its allies – Russia and Iran – are either tied down by the war in Ukraine or weakened by Israel's attacks in Lebanon and Syria. The rebels knew how to exploit this and struck at the right moment,” Bank told Merkur.de. In addition, Assad no longer has the support he once did in other Arab countries either. However, the latest attacks do not come as a complete surprise to our Syria expert: violence in the country had already been on the increase in the past two years anyway.  

The HTS, formerly known as Jabhat an-Nusra and once linked to al-Qaeda, sees itself as an opponent of the so-called Islamic State. Its goal is also to establish an Islamic order, but it is less transnational and more focused on parts of Syria. 

The attacks have considerably weakened the Assad regime. He has already announced a counteroffensive, which suggests a further escalation of violence will ensue in the country. Decisive here will be the extent to which Assad's previous supporters Russia and Iran become directly involved militarily; the Lebanese Hezbollah, which was an important supporter of Assad after 2011, is no longer a military player in Syria in the short term.    

For more on the role Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is playing in this conflict and whether Assad can stop the rebels’ advance with support from Russia and Iran, Dr. Bank shares his expertise on these topics in the following media reports: