After almost 14 years of war, during which the hope of returning home was all but extinguished for most of the 12 million Syrian refugees, the sudden fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad has triggered euphoria – not only in Syria, but also in neighbouring countries and around the world.
Syria, a focal point of the Arab Spring in 2011 and since then the scene of a violent, internationalised civil war, has increasingly faded from global public view in recent years in the face of other conflict arenas emerging such as Ukraine and Gaza.
Right-wing populist governments and parties across Europe repeatedly use acts of violence committed by supporters of Islamist organisations, such as the recent attack in Solingen, Germany, to undermine the right to asylum and demand stricter deportation regimes. In this context, Syria is also increasingly being presented as a supposedly “safe place” to which the deportation and repatriation of refugees can occur.
Against this backdrop, GIGA experts Dr. André Bank and Dr. Christiane Fröhlich provide their assessments of the situation in the country, the circumstances facing both the civilian population and Syrian refugees abroad, and offer recommendations for German and European policy. Both have been working on and with Syria and its people for many years now. Dr. André Bank focuses on the development of the civil war and the dynamics of authoritarian rule there, while Dr. Christiane Fröhlich pays particular attention to Syrian refugees’ current predicament.
What is the current political and military situation in Syria? How safe is the country for the civilian population?
GIGA Expert Dr. André Bank:
“As of 2024, Syria is divided into four political-military spheres of power:
(1) President Bashar al-Assad and his regime, supported by Iran and Russia, dominate about 60 per cent of the country and with it a population of some 9.6 million people. In these areas, the brutal dictatorship continues: disappearances, torture, and murder still occur on a massive scale. This has been compounded in recent years by an unprecedented economic crisis in the areas of central, southern, and western Syria under regime control since 2011.
(2) The northwestern region of Idlib is ruled over by the radical Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir ash-Sham. The Assad regime and Russia continue to bomb this area, the only remaining rebel stronghold, relentlessly from the air – in the shadow of the Gaza War, 160,000 people have been internally displaced.
(3) In northern Syria, Turkey and its ally the Syrian National Army occupy various geographic areas, many of which are home to Kurdish people.
(4) In the northeast, the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces hold power, supported by around 900 United States special forces. Together, they are subject to constant attack by pro-Iranian militias and their Syrian-Arab allies.
In short: the Syrian civilian population finds itself living under great precarity in all four of these areas. In most of them, the situation for families, women, and children has actually worsened since 2023.”
What is the situation for Syrian refugees in Syria and the wider region?
GIGA Expert Dr. Christiane Fröhlich:
“The majority of Syrian refugees, almost seven million people strong, continue to live in the country as internally displaced persons (IDPs). Around five million more have lived in neighbouring Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey for over a decade now. These people have often had to flee several times, invested all their private resources in leaving their native country, and have lost everything in the process. Even before the earthquake of February 2023, a good two-thirds of the Syrian civilian population were dependent on humanitarian aid; since then, the situation has steadily worsened.
There has also been a deterioration in the life circumstances of those Syrians resident in neighbouring countries. In Lebanon, for example, the various crises – currency collapse, the economy nosediving, the Port of Beirut explosion in 2022, acute political issues, and similar – also affect Syrian refugees, who often find themselves on the margins of society to begin with. The Lebanese government is already implementing forced deportations to Syria and there are regular attacks on Syrian refugees in the country, even though it is supposed to be helping the European Union deal with the so-called refugee crisis.
In short, whatever term you use to name or justify it (deportation, repatriation, and so forth): forcibly sending people back to Syria, a country characterised by widespread destruction, ongoing violence, and conditions of extreme poverty for the overwhelming majority of the population, undermines humanitarian refugee protection. Germany has committed itself to upholding the latter as a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention. Where should these people even go? Does the German government want to talk to Assad, to the Kurdish self-administration, to the insurgents, or to the Islamists to organise such deportations? That would be a departure from the policy of the last 13 years, and also from that of important (NATO) allies.
Apart from that, the example of Solingen makes very clear that the discussion around deportation to Syria currently misses the point anyway – the Solingen attacker would have been deported to Bulgaria under the Dublin procedure. Would that have changed his Islamist views? Or would we simply not have cared if an attack had been carried out in Bulgaria or elsewhere instead?
Basically, deportations do not solve the problem of Islamist terror and male violence, they only postpone it.”
What recommendations ensue for German and European Syria policy?
Dr. André Bank and Dr. Christiane Fröhlich:
“Given the extremely precarious situation in all parts of Syria, plans to forcibly repatriate refugees there should be explicitly rejected with immediate effect. They undermine humanitarian refugee protection and the right to asylum, to which all European states have committed themselves under the 1951 Refugee Convention. For Europe, this means opposing the governments of Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Malta, and Poland, which have declared parts of Syria “safe,” as this could lead to the forced repatriation of Syrians to their native country. In addition, the German government and the EU should put pressure on Syria’s neighbouring countries, especially Lebanon and Turkey, to stop such deportations already underway. At the same time, they should continue to support Syrians’ host countries in the Middle East with great urgency. Further, humanitarian aid to the northwest and northeast of Syria should be increased in working with local partners to reach the civilian population most in need.”
Deutsche Politiker wollen syrische Straftäter in deren Heimat abschieben. Doch die Lage vor Ort sei hochgefährlich und Diktator Assad nicht zu trauen, sagt der Experte André Bank.
In Deutschland wird über Abschiebungen von strafffällig gewordenen Geflüchteten nach Syrien diskutiert. Doch ist das Land sicher? Dr. André Bank vom GIGA hat substanzielle Zweifel.
The violent escalation in most of Syria since 2023 and the continuation of the Assad dictatorship suggest that nowhere in the country is safe. Outlined are the key details to this. Any plans to forcibly return Syrian refugees from Middle Eastern and European countries should therefore be rejected.
This paper by Dr. Christiane Fröhlich and Dr. Lea Müller-Funk addresses the question of how different actors govern mobility during civil war, and how mobility control and processes of state-making interact in such settings.
Abschiebungen nach Syrien? Nein, sagt Dr. André Bank. Die Lage ist weiterhin sehr unsicher und prekär. Eine Annäherung an Diktator Assad würde zudem der deutschen Syrienpolitik der letzten 13 Jahre zuwiderlaufen.
Da in Syrien keine Region sicher ist, sollten keine Abschiebungen durchgeführt werden, sagt Dr. André Bank. Zudem würden Abschiebungen zu einer Normalisierung des Diktators Assad führen und im Widerspruch zur deutschen Syrienpolitik der letzten 13 Jahre stehen.
Approximately 80 million people worldwide are currently displaced due to war or political violence. Millions more have fled their homes because of environmental disasters and socio-economic marginalisation. As there is no immediate end in sight, forced migration is one of the most pressing challenges facing world politics today. We focus on the causes of this phenomenon in our study regions.
The Peace and Security Research Programme uses state-of-the-art methods to study the causes of violent conflict and the conditions that foster sustainable peace. In addition, it investigates sanctions and interventions as key tools in international security policy amid rising geopolitical tensions.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
Dr. André Bank and Dastan Jasim shed light on the political situation in Syria and Turkey following the massive earthquake that shook the region on 6 February. The GIGA’s Middle East researchers provide background information and recommendations regarding the provision of humanitarian aid.
Approximately 80 million people worldwide are currently displaced due to war or political violence. Millions more have fled their homes because of environmental disasters and socio-economic marginalisation. As there is no immediate end in sight, forced migration is one of the most pressing challenges facing world politics today. We focus on the causes of this phenomenon in our study regions.
The Peace and Security Research Programme uses state-of-the-art methods to study the causes of violent conflict and the conditions that foster sustainable peace. In addition, it investigates sanctions and interventions as key tools in international security policy amid rising geopolitical tensions.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
Dr. André Bank and Dastan Jasim shed light on the political situation in Syria and Turkey following the massive earthquake that shook the region on 6 February. The GIGA’s Middle East researchers provide background information and recommendations regarding the provision of humanitarian aid.
Approximately 80 million people worldwide are currently displaced due to war or political violence. Millions more have fled their homes because of environmental disasters and socio-economic marginalisation. As there is no immediate end in sight, forced migration is one of the most pressing challenges facing world politics today. We focus on the causes of this phenomenon in our study regions.
The Peace and Security Research Programme uses state-of-the-art methods to study the causes of violent conflict and the conditions that foster sustainable peace. In addition, it investigates sanctions and interventions as key tools in international security policy amid rising geopolitical tensions.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
