A Bad Sign for Colombia's Total Peace: Talks with the ELN Suspended Indefinitely

Following an attack by the ELN on a military base in the province of Arauca, in which two soldiers were killed and 27 wounded, President Petro suspended the negotiations with the group. The Colombian government's talks with the ELN were a central pillar of the government's Total Peace policy, aimed at ending violence through dialogue and the rule of law. With the support of the governments of Cuba and Venezuela, seven rounds of negotiations have been held, leading to the signing of a series of partial agreements. However, in recent weeks it has become clear that the peace dialogue was on the brink of collapse. Negotiations have been stalled since May 2024. On the one hand, there was a dispute over the extension of the ceasefire, the ELN's classification as an "organised violent group" and the government's pursuit of a dialogue with the Comuneros del Sur Front, an ELN splinter group. On the other hand, the armed group recently intensified military actions as a means of pressuring the government. What does the end of the peace talks mean for the policy of total peace? What does it entail for the remaining term of President Petro? And what impact will it have on the relation with Venezuela and the crisis there? 

Why did the negotiations with the ELN not succeed?

GIGA Expert Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach:

"Negotiations between the Colombian government and the ELN have a long and complicated history. The ELN emerged during the 1960s out of student protests under the leadership of Camilo Torres, a catholic priest, following the “avangard” strategy of the Cuban guerrilla. It is the only remaining historic guerrilla group in Colombia that never signed a peace agreement. However, it agreed to a ceasefire with the government of Gustavo Petro  that lasted a year. Two reasons made the process complicated from the start: First the ELN  demands have always been fundamental but lacked detail on how to implement changes such as ending the prevailing development model and an inclusion of civil society. Second, and maybe more complicated, the ELN has never agreed to cease armed struggle and lay down arms. Unlike an elected government with only four years in charge, the ELN is and has been able to sit governments out and used negotiations and the ceasefire as a way to restructure and reinforce its territorial control." 

What does the end of the negotiations between the Colombian government and the ELN mean for the policy of Total Peace?

Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach and Dr. Viviana García Pinzón:

"Regardless of ideological orientation, dealing with the armed conflict and violence has consistently played a fundamental role in the agendas of Colombian governments. In the case of President Petro, his "total peace" policy is central to his government program. Initially conceived as an ambitious effort to definitively resolve Colombia’s violence and armed conflict through simultaneous negotiations with various groups—some recognized as political, others as criminal—it has gradually lost credibility and capacity to bring about real change. The policy has faced significant obstacles from the onset, including fundamental planning and policy development mistakes on the part of the government, struggles between the executive branch and other power branches over the reforms necessary to make the policy viable, and the lack of commitment and compliance from non-state armed groups.

The “Total Peace” policy  draws a distinction between armed groups with political aims and those driven by criminal agendas. However, in reality there are no clear cut distinctions possible as political groups also use criminal resources to fund their struggle. The creation of a legal framework to facilitate negotiations and dismantle groups classified as criminal has been a major point of contention. In the absence of such a framework, negotiations with the ELN and the Estado Mayor Conjunto (EMC) have emerged as the most viable initiatives – at least in legal terms – for the government. Regarding the ELN, its historical background and political aspirations are much more recognized than those of other groups. International support has not only come from the Cuban and Venezuelan allies of the ELN but also from other international actors such as the current German government. The civil society has also actively contributed to the process through the channels enabled via the National Participation Committee (Comité Nacional de Participación). With the suspension of negotiations with the ELN, the “Total Peace” policy loses one of its major components. It further undermines the already weak credibility of the overall policy."

What are the consequences for the Petro government?

GIGA Associate Dr. Viviana García Pinzón:  

"The balance in terms of peace and security for the government is highly unfavorable. It has failed to improve the overall security conditions or mitigate the humanitarian impact on the most vulnerable populations. Moreover, it has struggled to effectively implement the 2016 Peace Agreement. Meanwhile, the territorial control and armed capabilities of various non-state armed groups have expanded, with the intensification of violence resulting from armed disputes among them. At this stage, the government lacks both the capacity and the time to achieve the ambitious goals outlined in the policy of "total peace". The end of the negotiations with the ELN marks a critical moment that compounds the government’s broader difficulties, as it has also struggled to implement significant reforms in other policy areas. Given the gravity of the situation and the likely further deterioration following this event, it is imperative for the government to prioritize measures aimed at reducing the war’s impact on the civilian population. Additionally, the government must improve its security strategy and strengthen justice institutions—two areas that have been neglected in favor of negotiations as the main approach to curb violence."

Given that Venezuela turned into a safe haven for ELN fighters, what are the implications for the Colombia-Venezuela relations and the support for the Maduro government?

GIGA Expert Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach:

"The ELN is often characterized as a binational guerrilla, operating in both Colombia and Venezuela. The support of the Maduro government for the negotiation process might have shaped the Petro government's response to the election fraud and the current crisis in Venezuela. In case negotiations with the ELN are called off and the Colombian government pursues a military strategy to weaken the ELN,  political change in Venezuela might rather help than hinder this approach."