Iran: Pivot to the East amidst Domestic Repression
GIGA Talk
Iran: Pivot to the East amidst Domestic Repression
Date
27/10/2022
Start
04:00 p.m. (CEST)
End
05:15 p.m. (CEST)
As protests and human rights violations prevail in Iran, the Islamic Republic continues to orient itself towards the East. It is deepening its relations with major Asian and Eurasian powers such as Russia, China, and India. Iran recently announced its intention to become a member of BRICS. It has also signed a strategic “25-Year Roadmap” with China and recently joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; it is facing a deadlock in nuclear negotiations with the Western powers while selling armed drones to Russia and promoting various geoeconomic initiatives involving China, Russia, India, and other Eurasian actors. Domestically, the government is experiencing mass protests that threaten its legitimacy and cooperating with other authoritarian states on domestic repression. Regardless of the outcome of JCPOA negotiations, Iran, which can be called a Eurasian swing state, is likely to “turn to the east” – as recently announced by the country’s leaders.
This GIGA Talk seeks to shed light on this key strategic development by addressing the following questions: How substantive is this “turn”? What are the challenges for Iran in realising it? Given the increasing proximity between China, Russia, and Iran, can we meaningfully start talking about an “Eastern bloc” – as some analysts already do? Will this turn (and the Ukraine war) lead to authoritarian solidarity between China, Russia, and Iran? If so, will this close alignment make quelling dissent easier for them or will it be detrimental to their legitimacy? How does this “turn” affect regional security and global energy markets? And, finally, how can the European Union in general and Germany in particular best respond and adapt to such shifts?
Speakers: Dr. Mohammadbagher Forough is a Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies.
Barbara Slavin is Director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.
Discussant:
Gregory Bledjian is Head of Division Middle East at the German Federal Foreign Office.
Moderator: Prof. Dr. Eckart Woertz is Director of the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies.
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Organiser: Iranian Diplomacy Association
Dr. Mohammadbagher Forough (Speaker)
Invited by Iranian Diplomacy Association:
Department for International and Educational Cooperation The School of International Relations (SIR) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mina Alley, Shahid Baahonar Street (Niaavaran), Tehran P.O. Box: 1936783114
President Raisi is working to revitalise the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary values. While direct responses to socio-economic discontent consist of taking repressive measures, the government is also implementing a policy mixture shaped by the “jihadi” management style of a re-revolutionising elite.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
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Organiser: Iranian Diplomacy Association
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Invited by Iranian Diplomacy Association:
Department for International and Educational Cooperation The School of International Relations (SIR) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mina Alley, Shahid Baahonar Street (Niaavaran), Tehran P.O. Box: 1936783114
President Raisi is working to revitalise the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary values. While direct responses to socio-economic discontent consist of taking repressive measures, the government is also implementing a policy mixture shaped by the “jihadi” management style of a re-revolutionising elite.
The GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies is one of the leading institutes for Middle East research in Germany and Europe. Our scholars examine topics such as state and regime structures, energy security, violent conflicts, forced migration, Islamist movements, and the reshaping of the regional order.
The Global Orders and Foreign Policies Research Programme studies the development and maintenance of regional and global orders in contemporary world politics – along with challenges to those orders – as well as examining the agency and policies of established and emergent actors and structures that contribute to these ordering processes.
