Sandra Destradi / Johannes Vüllers

The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case

GIGA Working Paper, No. 202, August 2012

Abstract
While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties’ strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway’s failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.

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GIGA AutorInnen

Prof. Dr. Sandra Destradi hat die Professur für Politikwissenschaft mit Schwerpunkt Internationale Beziehungen und Regional Governance an der Helmut-Schmidt-Universität / Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg inne und leitet den Forschungsschwerpunkt 4 "Macht und Ideen" am GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

Aktuelle Publikationen der AutorInnen

Sandra Destradi / Johannes Plagemann

Populism and international relations: (un-)predictability, personalization, and the reinforcement of existing trends in world politics

Review of International Studies, online first, 2019, Special Issue 5 (Special Issue on Populism), 711-730

Johannes Plagemann / Sandra Destradi

What Modi teaches us about populist foreign policy

East Asia Forum, 2019

Johannes Plagemann / Sandra Destradi

Populism and Foreign Policy: The Case of India

Foreign Policy Analysis, 15, 2019, 2, 283-301

Sandra Destradi

Reluctant powers? Rising powers’ contributions to regional crisis management

Third World Quarterly, 39, 2018, 12, 2222-2239

Sandra Destradi / Detlef Nolte / Miriam Prys-Hansen

Regionalmächte spielen immer noch eine Rolle

GIGA Focus Global, 02/2018