Renewables and Carbon Offsets in the Global South: Impacts and Social Conflict (part of Excellence Cluster CLICCS / Phase II)


  • The Cluster of Excellence “Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” (CLICCS), based at Universität Hamburg, is guided by the overarching question: "Which climate futures are possible and which are plausible?" This GIGA co-led project in the cluster's second phase investigates the socioeconomic and distributional impacts of renewable energy expansion and land-based carbon offsets in the Global South. It also scrutinises how these impacts lead to new or reinforce existing social conflicts.
    DFG, Excellence Strategy, 2026-2032


    Research Questions

    As renewable energy and carbon offset projects scale up across the Global South, they promise climate benefits but also reshape local livelihoods, land access, and social relations. This project provides systematic evidence on how large-scale renewables and land-based carbon offsets affect incomes, inequality, and conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. It adresses the following questions:
    - What are the socioeconomic and distributional impacts of renewable energy (RE) expansion and land-based carbon offsets (LBCO) in the Global South in the areas where they are implemented?
    - Do these local socioeconomic and distributional impacts generate new and/or reinforce existing local social conflicts?
    - How do these effects depend on contextual features, including initial socioeconomic conditions and the form and extent of existing local conflicts?

    Contribution to International Research

    By providing systematic, quantitative evidence on the socioeconomic, distributional, and conflict impacts of renewables and carbon offsets in the Global South, the project fills a major gap in international climate, development, and conflict research.

    Research Design and Methods

    The project combines multi-wave household panel surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa with careful treatment–control designs, innovative conflict and cohesion measures, and experimental survey components to identify socioeconomic and conflict impacts.


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