Snakes and Ladders and Loaded Dice: Poverty Dynamics and Inequality in South Africa between 2008 and 2017

Longitudinal surveys allow us to understand how markers of (dis)advantage determine present material welfare and economic upward or downward mobility over time. In this paper, we use five waves of panel data to empirically assess the extent and dynamics of poverty in South Africa between 2008 and 2017. Investigating the correlates of poverty entries and exits, we analyse how multidimensional inequalities in terms of household- and individual-level characteristics relate to these dynamics and identify markers of vulnerability. We utilise these markers to classify the South African population into five strata characterised by their present and future risk to poverty.