Am Wochenende des 26./27. Januar 2008 wurden in Nakuru und Naivasha im kenianischen Rift Valley erneut etwa 90 Menschen bei Auseinandersetzungen zwischen ethnischen Gruppen getötet. Die Zahl der Gewaltopfer seit den Wahlen Ende Dezember 2007 wird inzwischen auf etwa 800 geschätzt; rund 250.000 Menschen sollen auf der Flucht sein.
Analyse
Die kenianischen Präsidentschaftswahlen vom 27. Dezember 2007 scheiterten – bei vermutlich sehr knappem Wahlergebnis – an weit reichenden Unregelmäßigkeiten bei der Auszählung. Die Legitimität der Regierung von Präsident Mwai Kibaki ist ebenso fragwürdig wie die Behauptung des Herausforderers Raila Odinga, der tatsächliche Wahlsieger zu sein.
Eine erneute Auszählung der Wahlergebnisse verspricht angesichts des Vertrauensverlustes in die Institutionen des Landes wenig Erfolg.
Auch eine Wiederholung der Wahlen ist unter den gegenwärtigen Bedingungen unrealistisch.
Das umstrittene Wahlergebnis ist nur der Auslöser für die Eskalation der Gewalt. Diese resultiert vielmehr aus tief greifenden sozialen, politischen und ethnischen Disparitäten.
Ethnizität wurde von politischen Akteuren instrumentalisiert, doch hat die ethnische Polarisierung inzwischen Eigendynamik entwickelt.
Eine politisch vermittelte Übergangslösung mit einer Machtteilung könnte die gewaltsam ausgetragenen Konflikte deeskalieren und elementare Voraussetzungen schaffen, um die Grundprobleme des Landes anzugehen: soziale und regionale Disparitäten, politische Ungleichgewichte, Landlosigkeit, Korruption und eine überfällige Verfassungsreform.
Harneit-Sievers, Axel (2008), Kenia: Wahlen und die Eskalation der Gewalt, GIGA Focus Africa, 1, Hamburg: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-275076
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The German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) – Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien in Hamburg publishes the Focus series on Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and global issues. The GIGA Focus is edited and published by the GIGA. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institute. Authors alone are responsible for the content of their articles. GIGA and the authors cannot be held liable for any errors and omissions, or for any consequences arising from the use of the information provided.
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