GIGA Focus International Edition Chinese , ,

国际安全援助部队撤离阿富汗: 地域大国的感受及反应

GIGA Focus | International Edition Chinese | Number 02 |

2012年7月在东京举行的一次会议上,阿富汗的援助国决定在随后四 年里,掏出160亿美元用来支持阿富汗重建。2012年5月芝加哥举行 的北约峰会上,人们亦已承诺拨出数额类似的一笔款项用于建设阿 富汗安全力量。

解析
国际社会努力向阿富汗政府表明,2014年底国际安全援助部队撤 回以后,它们不会对阿富汗置之不顾。但是,让人感到忧心忡忡的 是,如果阿富汗出现权力真空,塔利班重新上台,该国会重新陷入 混乱状态。

  • „„如果阿富汗陷入动荡,它的邻国会首当其冲受到影响。虽然邻国 都有类似的感觉、会受到威胁,但它们却在阿富汗追寻各种不同 的目标,而这让人难以实现高效的区域合作。

  • „„美国想继续保持它在阿富汗的影响,抑制那些与美国利益背道而 驰的倡议。

  • „„美国所追寻的前景是一个经济上实现融合的区域,而在这一区 域,阿富汗是连接中亚及南亚、中东及东亚的“新丝绸之路”的 核心枢纽。人们在此基础上设想,经济融合能实现安全领域的进一步稳定,但即使一切顺利,这一设想也只能在长远的未来实 现。短期内,这一地区各国的政治分歧则会阻碍经济合作。

  • 中国和印度有意将阿富汗进一步纳入到区域性组织中来,这样,它们能让阿富汗融入到自己的势力范围。这两个国家都害怕2014 年以后阿富汗会陷入动荡,特别是如果伊斯兰教恐怖集团势力增 长,可能会直接影响这两国自身的安全。

  • „„其他的国家对阿富汗的发展也感兴趣,例如伊朗,它奉行一种自 相矛盾的政策,既害怕2014年以后美国在阿富汗继续施加影响, 又害怕塔利班上台。

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Suggested Citation Style

Destradi, Sandra, Nadine Godehardt und Alexander Frank (2012), 国际安全援助部队撤离阿富汗: 地域大国的感受及反应, GIGA Focus International Edition Chinese, 02, https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publication/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8F%B4%E5%8A%A9%E9%83%A8%E9%98%9F%E6%92%A4%E7%A6%BB%E9%98%BF%E5%AF%8C%E6%B1%97%EF%BC%9A-%E5%9C%B0%E5%9F%9F%E5%A4%A7%E5%9B%BD%E7%9A%84%E6%84%9F%E5%8F%97%E5%8F%8A%E5%8F%8D%E5%BA%94

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The German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) – Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien in Hamburg publishes the Focus series on Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and global issues. The GIGA Focus is edited and published by the GIGA. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institute. Authors alone are responsible for the content of their articles. GIGA and the authors cannot be held liable for any errors and omissions, or for any consequences arising from the use of the information provided.

General Editor GIGA Focus Series: Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach

Prof. Dr. Sandra Destradi is a professor of International Relations and ­Regional Governance at Helmut Schmidt University / University of the Federal Armed ­Forces Hamburg and the head of GIGA Research Programme 4: Power and Ideas.

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