GIGA Analysis: A Stronger Chinese Influence at the G20 Unlikely

Hamburg, 22 May 2017. In the context of Donald Trump ascending to the US presidency and the expected retreat of the United States from the international stage, a growing topic of discussion is who might fill the resulting gap and maintain the global order. With a view to the G20, experts from the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) and Goethe University Frankfurt am Main believe it is unlikely that China will take on this role.

“It seems unlikely that China would offer the kind of visionary leadership necessary to fill the hegemonic vacuum should the United States continue to disengage from global governance,” write GIGA senior research fellow Prof. Heike Holbig and Dr. des. Sebastian Biba of Goethe University Frankfurt am Main in their analysis.

The researchers see a “narrow corridor” for cooperation between G20 members China and the European Union in regard to the crisis of globalisation: “Only if the G20 agenda stays focused on core financial and economic issues will China remain a facilitative player in this grouping.”

In their recommendations to political decision makers, the authors urge giving developing and emerging economies a bigger say in the international order and global institutions such as the G20. Only in this way can the world order be designed through these institutions – and only in this way can the phenomenon of emerging countries seeking alternative forums to exert political influence be avoided.

The complete analysis GIGA Focus Asia 2/2017: “China in the G20: A Narrow Corridor for Sino-European Cooperation” is available on the GIGA website.

In the run-up to the G20 summit, the GIGA is publishing short analyses on various aspects of the G20 and discussing these ideas at public events. Further information can be found at www.giga-hamburg.de/g20.