Indonesia’s Democratic Decline: What Prabowo Means for German–Indonesian Partnership

As the EU-Indonesia Free Trade Agreement advances and high-level visits multiply, Indonesia’s partnership with Europe and Germany is deepening. Yet the mode of rule under President Prabowo Subianto – a retired general with a controversial past – raises urgent questions about democratic backsliding. His administration’s recentralisation of power and expanded military role in civilian sectors signal troubling governance shifts in Southeast Asia’s largest democracy. Despite these concerns, civil society is proving remarkable resilient through its growing protest movements. Islamic groups, representing 85 per cent of the population, play a pivotal role in shaping political responses to the new administration. This GIGA Talk examines what is afoot in Indonesia under Prabowo: the democratic risks, sources of resistance, and what this means for Germany’s strategic-partnership choices.

Key takeaways from the event

1. Gradual democratic decline Rather than an abrupt authoritarian takeover, Indonesia is experiencing incremental democratic backsliding. This aligns with the global trend of autocratisation, characterised by weakening institutions, reduced checks and balances, and the continued holding of elections. Indonesia can now be best described as a regime in a grey zone between electoral democracy and electoral authoritarianism.

2. Acceleration under Presidents Jokowi and Prabowo Power is becoming increasingly concentrated in the executive. There has been an increase in party cartelisation and a lack of effective political opposition. Anti-corruption institutions are being weakened, while illiberal legislation such as the Penal Code, the Criminal Procedure Code and the Military Law is being expanded.

3. Shrinking civic space Civil society is facing increased repression, surveillance and legal constraints. Dissent is being criminalised, and freedom of expression is being restricted. Historical narratives are being rewritten, and symbols of authoritarianism are being revived.

4. Surge in protest movements since 2019 Indonesia has experienced its largest wave of protests since the democratic transition of 1998, led mainly by students, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), urban poor and liberal civil society actors. The protests have focused on opposing autocratisation and illiberal policies.

5. Limited effectiveness of protests Recent protests, notably in 2025, have been met with heavy police repression and mass arrests. No significant policy concessions have been achieved. Movements have been weakened by fragmentation, a lack of leadership and a lack of access to formal political power.

6. Signs of resilience but fragile Public support for democracy, however, remains relatively strong. Radical political Islam is currently marginalised. Broad elite coalitions prevent sudden democratic collapse but also block deeper democratisation.

7. Role of religion Historically, large Muslim organisations have supported pluralism and democratisation. However, the democratic potential of religious actors has been insufficiently supported since the 2000s. There has been a growing alliance between socially conservative religious groups and nationalist actors. A shift is occurring towards a majoritarian, less pluralist nationalism.

8. Implications for Germany The potential for democratic reform among the political and economic elite is limited. Civil society and critical voices within religious organisations offer greater potential. German engagement should prioritise pluralism, democratic norms and sustainability.

Speakers: Dr. Abdil Mughis Mudhoffir is an Alexander von Humboldt Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies and Hamburg Institute for Advanced Study (HIAS). His research interests include democratisation and civil society movements in Indonesia and Southeast Asia.

Dr. Saskia Schäfer is a Senior Research Group Leader at the Humboldt University of Berlin with extensive experience at Columbia University, United States, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Her forthcoming book Mobilizing Mainstream Islam: The Politics of Orthodoxy in Indonesia in Comparative Perspective will be published with Cornell University Press in January 2026.

Dr. Andreas Ufen is a Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies and Editor of the Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. He works on politics in Southeast Asia, in particular on democratisation and autocratisation in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Moderator: Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest is a Lead Research Fellow and Head of Policy Exchange and Berlin Office at the GIGA.