GIGA Talk

Indonesia’s Democratic Decline: What Prabowo Means for German–Indonesian Partnership

Date

14/01/2026

Start

04:30 p.m. (CET)

End

06:00 p.m. (CET)

An Indonesian presidential candidate addresses a large campaign rally at Bung Karno Stadium in Jakarta, speaking into a microphone before thousands of supporters filling the stands.

  • As the EU-Indonesia Free Trade Agreement advances and high-level visits multiply, Indonesia’s partnership with Europe and Germany is deepening. Yet the mode of rule under President Prabowo Subianto – a retired general with a controversial past – raises urgent questions about democratic backsliding. His administration’s recentralisation of power and expanded military role in civilian sectors signal troubling governance shifts in Southeast Asia’s largest democracy. Despite these concerns, civil society is proving remarkable resilience through its growing protest movements. Islamic groups, representing 85 per cent of the population, play a pivotal role in shaping political responses to the new administration. This GIGA Talk examines what is afoot in Indonesia under Prabowo: the democratic risks, sources of resistance, and what this means for Germany’s strategic-partnership choices.

    Speakers: Dr. Abdil Mughis Mudhoffir is an Alexander von Humboldt Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies and Hamburg Institute for Advanced Study (HIAS). His research interests include democratisation and civil society movements in Indonesia and Southeast Asia.

    Dr. Saskia Schäfer is a Senior Research Group Leader at the Humboldt University of Berlin with extensive experience at Columbia University, United States, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Her forthcoming book Mobilizing Mainstream Islam: The Politics of Orthodoxy in Indonesia in Comparative Perspective will be published with Cornell University Press in January 2026.

    Dr. Andreas Ufen is a Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Asian Studies and Editor of the Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. He works on politics in Southeast Asia, in particular on democratisation and autocratisation in Indonesia and Malaysia.

    Moderator: Prof. Dr. Christian von Soest is a Lead Research Fellow and Head of Policy Exchange and Berlin Office at the GIGA.



    Address

    GIGA Berlin Office, Friedrichstraße 206, 10969 Berlin

    Language

    English

    Registration required

    Audio Vor 50 Jahren: Als Indonesien Osttimor besetzt
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    Audio Vor 50 Jahren: Als Indonesien Osttimor besetzt

    Roundtable | 17/11/2025

    Indonesia-Germany Track 1.5 Dialogue on Indo-Pacific Region

    GIGA researchers Andreas Ufen, Abdil Mughis Mudhoffir, Nathanael Gratias Sumaktoyo, Oliver Schramm and Iris Wieczorek took part in this roundtable at the Embassy of the Republic of Indonesia in Berlin. The participants explored how far Indonesia’s and Germany’s foreign policy interests align and how Indonesian foreign policy is viewed in Berlin. They discussed the extraordinarily difficult geopolitical and geoeconomic condition in the region, and stressed the enormous potential of bilateral relations between Germany and Indonesia. Both countries would benefit from much more intensive cooperation in different policy areas.

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