No Future for the JCPOA? The Iranian Nuclear File and Proliferation Risk in the Middle East

The Iranian nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action/JCPOA) has been in limbo since the US withdrawal from it. Iran continues to abide by its main stipulations but has signalled its unwillingness to do so in the long run. Its gradual roll back of compliance has prompted European powers to trigger the JCPOA’s dispute mechanism in January. France, Britain and Germany have sought to keep up their end of the bargain by offering an alternative payment channel (INSTEX) to maintain trade in the face of renewed US sanctions, but Iran has not seen economic benefits from the agreement so far. The economic impact of US sanctions has been profound but has not prompted Iran to reconsider its posture. Tension in the region remains high and there is a risk of nuclear proliferation should the JCPOA fail.

What are the long-term implications of the US maximum pressure strategy and what are likely scenarios after the US presidential election in November? How would other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel react if Iran withdrew from the JCPOA? Under which circumstances do sanctions typically end and what would need to happen for the US to lift its renewed Iran sanctions? Is a more hopeful scenario of a renewed deal conceivable?

Speakers: Prof. Dr. James Russell is Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Hana Attia is Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for African Affairs

Ambassador Dr. Christian Buck is Director of Middle East and North Africa, Federal Foreign Office

Moderator: Prof. Dr. Eckart Woertz is Director of GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies