Felix Haaß / Sabine Kurtenbach / Julia Strasheim

Fleeing the Peace? Determinants of Outward Migration after Civil War

GIGA Working Paper, No. 289, August 2016

Abstract
In countries where civil war has formally ended, not all refugees return. Nor does emigration come to a halt. Why? We argue that three specific features of post‐war situations explain the varying levels of outward migration: the quality of peace, the quality of political institutions, and the quality of economic livelihoods. We test our hypotheses using a mixed-method research design that combines a series of statistical models with evidence from two case studies, Nepal and El Salvador. Our findings suggest that, cross‐nationally, postwar violence and repression as well as exclusion from economic opportunities are the major drivers of outward migration after civil war. Complementary evidence from the two case studies shows that the effects of violence and of the lack of decent economic livelihoods on post‐war emigration are enhanced by insufficient or dysfunctional political reforms.

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GIGA Authors

Dr. Felix Haass is a research fellow at the GIGA Institute for African Affairs, a member of the GIGA’s “Peace and Security” research programme, and a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Osnabrück. His research interests include civil war dynamics, international conflict management, the political economy of institutions after civil wars, and autocratic politics.

Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach

Lead Research Fellow
General Editor GIGA Focus
Editor GIGA Focus Global

Prof. Dr. Sabine Kurtenbach is a political scientist, acting director of the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, and honorary professor at Philipps University Marburg. She researches peace, conflict, and violence with a regional focus on Latin America and beyond.

Julia Strasheim is Associate at the GIGA and researcher at the "Bundeskanzler-Helmut-Schmidt-Stiftung".

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