A Dangerous Liaison? Ethnicity, Natural Resources and Civil Conflict Onset


  • Ethnicity and natural resources can form a special risk - but only under specific conditions: When ethnic groups are excluded from the distribution of power and revenues from resources or have access to lootable resources, conflict becomes more likely. In turn, including ethnic groups reduces the risk of violent conflict. Partially, the logic of violent and peaceful conflict are different.
    DFG, 2012-2016


    Team

    Dr. Carlo Koos

    Associate

    Dr. Annegret Kuhn (geb. Mähler)

    Ehemals Associate

    Prof. Dr. Jan Pierskalla

    Ehemals Associate

    Dr. Philippe Le Billon

    Dr. Hanne Fjelde

    Dr. Anke Hoeffler

    Siri Aas Rustad


    Forschungsfragen

    The research project focuses on two core questions: * Do ethnicity and natural resources jointly increase the risk of conflict onset? * Which ethnicity-related, resource-related, and other conditions have an impact on conflict?

    Beitrag zu internationaler Forschung

    According to the literature on conflict, ethnicity and natural resources can, under certain conditions, increase the risk of intrastate conflict. Theoretically, the combination of ethnic diversity and resources should be particularly dangerous, as both together may generate strong motives for resistance and increase an ethnic group’s capacity for insurgency by providing financial means and recruitment pools. In sum, ethnicity and resource-specific conditions can assist in overcoming the collective-action problems that rebellion (and hence civil war) entails. However, studies on ethnicity and conflict on the one hand (e.g. Gurr, Cederman, Wimmer, Horowitz) and resources and conflict on the other (e.g. Collier/Hoeffler, Le Billon, Ross) have operated independently of each other thus far. Moreover, previous research has investigated causal mechanisms only at a rather aggregate level. This project unifies both strands of the literature and investigates the precise mechanisms that may lead to violence in the presence of both resources and ethnic diversity.

    Forschungsdesign und Methoden

    Methodologically, the project engages in georeferencing below the national level and combines macro-, meso-and microperspectives in a three-level analysis. At the macro level, a global database that identifies the overlapping locations of resources, relevant and deprived ethnic groups, and conflict is being created in order to uncover general patterns. For this purpose, existing data on resources (PETRODATA, GEMDATA, DIADATA, US Geological Survey) and ethnicity (Ethnic Power Relations Dataset and its georeferenced variant GEO-EPR) is being used. At the meso level, the project is engagingin a within-country comparison of two pertinent country cases (Bolivia and Nigeria) where the presence of resources and relevant ethnic groups, as well as the level of violence, varies across subnational units. While Nigeria has experienced high-intensity violence, Bolivia is well suited for a study of lower levels of violence. At the micro level, extensive fieldwork in two carefully selected local sites per country aims to uncover the exact mechanisms through which the combination of ethnicity and resourcesleads (or does not lead) to violence.

    Vorläufige Ergebnisse

    Preliminary results suggest that ethnicity indeed conditions the impact of natural resources. In a spatial analysis of grid cells in Africa from 1990 to 2010, both ethnic exclusion and the presence of oil increases the risk of conflict events. However, when groups with (monopoly) access to power settle in oil-rich areas, the conflict-increasing effect is reversed. Apparently, these groups can use revenues to buy off peace. Subnational studies for the cases of Bolivia and Nigeria, including collection of novel data, seem to confirm these results.


    Terrorism and Political Violence | 2016

    The Effects of Oil Production and Ethnic Representation on Violent Conflict in Nigeria: A Mixed-Methods Approach

    Dr. Carlo Koos

    Associate

    Prof. Dr. Jan Pierskalla

    Ehemals Associate

    Comparative Political Studies | 2015

    Indigenous Identity, Natural Resources, and Contentious Politics in Bolivia: A Disaggregated Conflict Analysis, 2000-2011

    Dr. Annegret Kuhn (geb. Mähler)

    Ehemals Associate

    Prof. Dr. Jan Pierskalla

    Ehemals Associate

    GIGA Focus Global | 8/2014

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    Kim Schultze

    University of Sussex

    GIGA Focus International Edition English | 2/2014

    South Sudan’s Newest War: When Two Old Men Divide a Nation

    Dr. Carlo Koos

    Associate

    Thea Gutschke

    GIGA Working Papers | 03.2014

    Does Violence Pay? The Effect of Ethnic Rebellion on Overcoming Political Deprivation

    Dr. Carlo Koos

    Associate

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    Konferenz | 19.06.2014 - 21.06.2014

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    Dr. Alexander De Juan

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    Konferenz | 17.06.2015 - 19.06.2015

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    METU Conference on International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara Organisation: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Insa Ewert (Vortragende:r)

    Insa Ewert

    Former Doctoral Researcher

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