Pressured by the Decreased Price of Oil: Post-2014 Adjustment Policies in the Arab Gulf and Beyond

Workshop 09/11/2021

This paper looks at key trajectories of adjustment in the Arab Gulf since 2014. We argue that despite a wide range of adjustment measures no deep, structural reform has been initiated in any of the GCC countries. We highlight, however, the importance of several crucial trends which shed light upon the future of reforms in the region. First, while coordination between oil produces was successful at the global level in the context of OPEC+, similarly gainful policy coordination was largely absent within the GCC. Second, migrant workers from the Global South have been the biggest losers from post-2014 adjustment policies, while citizens of the Gulf states – most of whom are employed in the well-paid public sector – were able to maintain their privileges. Third, as typical for rentier states, adjustment policies were characterized by institutional weaknesses. Differences between GCC countries can be explained by looking at distinctive institutional configurations relevant for policy formulation and decision making. In our concluding section we discuss what this means for the advancement of rentierism as key concept to better understand the political economy in the Middle East.

Middle East Institute, Washington Washington, DC: 26/10/2021

Following the Arab Spring uprisings, the 2014 downward slide in the global price of crude oil marks a second major shock for the Middle East in the 21st century. It had major repercussions across the region for oil exporters, as well as for importers connected to oil-producing countries from the Gulf. The decline has continued to impose constraints, but also opportunities for policy adjustment strategies potentially leading to strengthened political economies throughout the region.

A recently published volume, Oil and the Political Economy in the Middle East, offers a comprehensive analysis of the Middle Eastern political economy in response to the 2014 oil price decline with timely contributions on the Covid-19 induced price crash in 2020.

Conference 16/09/2021

Conference 24/09/2013

The Rentier State Approach and the Arab. Panel auf dem 32. Deutschen Orientalistentag