GIGA Focus International Edition Chinese

君主制国家:中东当前巨变的赢家?

Number 4 | 2013 | ISSN: 2196-3959


  • 沙特阿拉伯邀请约旦、摩洛哥加入海湾合作理事会,至2013年5月,距邀 请发起日,已时隔两年。一如既往,这一提议可被视作一大重要信号,显 示出阿拉伯之春爆发后,君主专制国家不愿谢幕退场。

    解析

    2011年起,埃及、也门、利比亚、突尼斯这四个实施共和政体的中东国 家里,国家元首纷纷倒台,而巴林、约旦、卡塔尔、科威特、摩洛哥、阿 曼、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋这些君主制国家,现安然渡过了“阿拉伯之春” 巨变带来的冲击。尽管在这些国家里,大都发生了反政府示威活动,部分 示威活动甚至规模颇大,但是中东目前政治发展的主要趋势仍是:摇摇欲 坠的共和制国家以及相当稳定的君主制国家之间,横隔着一道沟鸿。

    • 当今世界上,唯一值得一提的君主专制国家密集的地区,就是中东, 那里汇集了八个君主专制国家。

    • 可以从四大相互关联的关键因素出发,解释君主专制这一政权形式之 所以能稳定持久的原因,即:传统及宗教所赋予的合法性、稳定的家 族统治及促进精英的参与、将物质资源分配给人民、获得不同形式的 外界支持。

    • 巴林王国发生了大规模的国内政治动乱,但这是该地区的特例现象, 应归结于该国独特的状况。

    • 同共和制国家相比,君主制国家现更好地度过了阿拉伯之春巨变所带 来的冲击,因此,要说君主制国家已是政台上的“昨日黄花”,尚为 时过早。

    • 但是,君主制国家不具有积极的特有发展模式,所以至今为止,君主 制国家都未能树立起独具魅力的未来发展模式,未能以此成功吸引其 他国家。


    Footnotes




      Anna Sunik

      Former Doctoral Researcher



      Dr. Thomas Richter

      Lead Research Fellow / Head of Research Programme "Accountability and Participation"

      T. +49 (0)40 - 428 25-528thomas.richter@giga-hamburg.de



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      The German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) – Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien in Hamburg publishes the Focus series on Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and global issues. The GIGA Focus is edited and published by the GIGA. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institute. Authors alone are responsible for the content of their articles. GIGA and the authors cannot be held liable for any errors and omissions, or for any consequences arising from the use of the information provided.

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