GIGA Focus International Edition Chinese

弱国气温上升:中东气候变化及暴力 现象

Number 4 | 2014 | ISSN: 2196-3959


  • 2014年1月30日,政府间气候变化专门委员会公布了最新实况报告的第一部分。人们在改良过的气候模式上撰写该报告,与2007年提交的上一份报告相比,该报告对气候变化所带来的后果,发出了更为迫切的警告。中东国家尤其受到影响。

    解析

    气温上升,降雨量减少,会减少生存所必须的资源。如果发生这类环境变化的地方,政治机构及结构薄弱,那么爆发暴力冲突的危机,就尤其容易上升,许多中东国家就证明了这一点。

    • 气候预测显示,全球气温将上升,水资源会继续减少。在中东,这类变化带来的后果,现在就已清晰可见。

    • 过去历史上,长期气候变化,就已经直接或间接引发中东的暴力现象,例如在也门、伊拉克、苏丹或叙利亚。譬如在苏丹西部,就一再爆发争夺肥沃地区的暴力冲突;在也门西部,水成为人们在农村地区争夺得最为频繁的资源。

    • 然而,按照新马尔萨斯人口论的预测,暴力必然升级,这一预测是无根据的:比环境变化自身更为重要的,是国家如何应对资源紧缺及其后果。气候变化虽然会加剧分配冲突,然而,气候变化最终会造成何种后果,主要取决于各政治机构的素质及能力。

    • 这样,对尤其受到影响的国家而言,更为重要的就是,及早准备并采取措施,以适应气候变化。这样,人们可以阻止长期气候变化令政治及经济体系变得更加脆弱。


    Footnotes



      Research Programmes

      How to cite this article

      Alexander De Juan, and Sarah Schwahn (2014), 弱国气温上升:中东气候变化及暴力 现象, GIGA Focus International Edition Chinese, 4, Hamburg: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), https://www.giga-hamburg.de/de/system/files/publications/gf_international_chin_1404.pdf


      Imprint

      The GIGA Focus is an Open Access publication and can be read on the Internet and downloaded free of charge at www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publications/giga-focus. According to the conditions of the Creative-Commons license Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0, this publication may be freely duplicated, circulated, and made accessible to the public. The particular conditions include the correct indication of the initial publication as GIGA Focus and no changes in or abbreviation of texts.

      The German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) – Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien in Hamburg publishes the Focus series on Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and global issues. The GIGA Focus is edited and published by the GIGA. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institute. Authors alone are responsible for the content of their articles. GIGA and the authors cannot be held liable for any errors and omissions, or for any consequences arising from the use of the information provided.


      Sarah Schwahn

      Sarah Schwahn




      GIGA Focus Global | 5/2012

      Welternährung in der Krise

      Prof. Dr. Hans-Heinrich Bass

      Internationale Wirtschaft, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Hochschule Bremen

      Notification

      Sign up to receive email notifications about GIGA activities

      Social Media

      Follow us