De-Carbonizing Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa


  • Energy demand in countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to increase drastically in the next decades. Against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement, a key question for developing countries is how to forego carbon-intensive development steps and thereby achieve sustainable development. To answer this question, this project will trace the most recent carbonization dynamics and analyze feasible climate change mitigation actions that can lower emissons without compromising economic development.


    Team

    Hannes Greve

    Research Fellow

    Jörg Peters

    Jan Steckel


    Leitung

    Prof. Dr. Jann Lay

    Lead Research Fellow / Leitung Forschungsschwerpunkt "Globalisierung und Entwicklung"


    Forschungsfragen

    In recent years global emission increases have mainly been driven by developing countries’ economic growth, predominantly in Asia. Countries of SSA could drive the next wave of carbonization, with energy demand being projected to increase sharply in the coming decades. The Paris Agreement emphasizes the intertwined relationship between climate impacts as well as emission reductions and sustainable development. A key question for developing countries is therefore how to forego carbon-intensive development steps.

    The project aims to investigate carbonization dynamics and climate policy options in SSA. More specifically, feasible short term entry points for SSA countries will be analyzed to embark on low-carbon development paths and prevent lock-ins in long-lived infrastructure. The project will also deal with the political feasibility and the interrelationship of climate measures with other objectives, such as poverty reduction and employment. The team aims to improve the understanding of the political and institutional drivers and barriers that shape Africa’s energy transition, conducting comparative case studies.

    The focus of the GIGA research team will be on effects of (future) climate policy on households and firms.

    Beitrag zu internationaler Forschung

    Results derived in DeCaDe can inform different stakeholders how to identify and address current challenges: First, African governments can learn how to improve their NDCs in the upcoming UNFCCC periodic review process; in particular, they will help to understand which policy instruments can be implemented, how this can be politically backed and how they can be made effective. Multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank or African Development Bank, and bilateral donors (e.g. BMZ) can use our results to identify key areas of future action. In addition, our results can also inform a broad range of policy makers how different – and potentially conflicting – goals in the Agenda 2030 can be managed. Academically, we will partially step on empirically uncovered ground.

    Forschungsdesign und Methoden

    The evaluation of distributional effects by energy price changes on households will rely partly on ex-ante micro-simulations to determine how different income groups are likely to be affected by climate measures. In particular, the results will provide information on whether a climate policy can be expected to be progressive or regressive, i.e. whether it will put a proportionally higher cost burden on richer or poorer households. The distributional impacts can also be analyzed along other socio-economic characteristics, such as household size, location, education etc. Ex-post evaluations of fossil fuel subsidy reforms will shed light on behavioral recations of households in response to energy price increases.

    Vorläufige Ergebnisse

    Preliminary results from a quasi-experimental setting on fossil fuel subsidy removal in Ghana indicates that households switch back from modern fuels (mainly LPG) to tradtional and transition fuels: Firewood and charcoal. The use of firewood and charcoal for cooking is associated with forest degradation and severe health issues through indoor air pollution, which predominantly affects women and children. These results provide a strong argument for complementary policies to accompany fossil fuel price increases in poor contexts. Such policies can include (1) compensation payments, for example cash transfers, (2) support for alternative fuels or improving energy effciency, and (3) policies to curb harmful second-round effects, for example through more effective forest protection policies. Further, our result show that the impacts of fuel price reforms are highly context-specific: Local supply and demand conditions cause great heterogeneity in the effects of price reforms even within Ghana. Therefore, complementary policies would need to be designed to take into account this heterogeneity. This probably generalizes to other developing countries where markets are fragmented and (fossil-fuel-based) transport costs high.

    GIGA Focus Global | 1/2022

    Now and Never: Banning Hydrocarbon Extraction in Antarctica Forever

    Unerschlossene Bodenschätze bleiben ein zentrales Thema antarktischer Diplomatie. Als Gastgeber der nächsten Tagung im Mai 2022 hat Deutschland die Chance, mit einem Verbot der Ausbeutung antarktischer Kohlenwasserstoffe „für immer“ antarktische Diplomatie und globale Klimakooperation wiederzubeleben.

    Prof. Dr. Alan D. Hemmings

    27.09.2021

    Stepping down the ladder: The impacts of fossil fuel subsidy removal in a developing country

    Konferenz 27.09.2021

    24.06.2020

    Stepping Down the Ladder: The Unintended Impacts of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Removal in a Developing Country

    Konferenz 24.06.2020

    Benachrichtigungen

    Melden Sie sich hier für E-Mail-Benachrichtigungen zu GIGA-Aktivitäten an

    Soziale Medien

    Folgen Sie uns